Seattle Mariners: Mallex Smith Trade Analysis- Robbing Peter to pay Paul

The Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays made a trade on Thursday, with Mike Zunino and Mallex Smith headlining a significant, five-player trade. Seattle now has a glaring vacancy to fill behind the plate. And that’s a bit of a problem.

It happened again.

The Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays made another trade.

The official transaction sees backstop Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia depart the Emerald City—along with pitching prospect Michael Plassmeyer. The trio head to the Rays organization, who sent outfielder Mallex Smith and outfield prospect Jake Fraley to the M’s.

Seattle announced the move in a tweet on the team’s official Twitter account.

Welcome back, Mallex Smith!

The outfielder returns to Seattle along with minor league OF Jake Fraley from the Rays in exchange for catcher Mike Zunino, outfielder Guillermo Heredia and minor league LHP Michael Plassmeyer.

📒: https://t.co/NdLEnGrxZI pic.twitter.com/ubOLkkrcGg

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) November 8, 2018

It’s yet another M’s/Rays trade in a long line of many.

In fact, it’s actually not the first time the Mariners have acquired Mallex Smith, or that Smith has been involved in a trade between the two franchises.

The fleet-of-foot outfielder was acquired by the M’s from Atlatna in January of 2017 with Shae Simmons for Thomas Burrows and Luiz Gohara. He was later flipped, on the same day, with Carlos Vargas and Ryan Yarbrough to Tampa Bay for Drew Smyly.

It all amounted to Seattle essentially surrendering Smith, Gohara, Yarbrough, Burrows and Vargas to acquire Smyly and Simmons.

Since the start of the 2017 season, Gohara and Yarbrough have combined for 196.1 innings and a 1.7 fWAR. Smith also has a 4.3 fWAR over that span, in 826 plate appearances.

And while Burrows and Vargas have yet to appear in the Majors, they have the same number of MLB appearances as Smyly over the past two years.

Unfortunately, the former Tiger underwent Tommy John surgery and never threw a pitch for the Mariners. He signed with Chicago last winter and is now in Texas.

So, hindsight is obviously 20-20, but the M’s previously gave up all that for… nothing.

Well, ok, not nothing.

Simmons threw 7.2 innings for Seattle. He spent part of 2018 with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate.

Still, not Jerry Dipoto’s finest hour where trades are concerned.

He gets another shot with Smith in this deal, a player who is just months removed from a career year that included a .367 on-base percentage, a .339 wOBA, a 117 wRC+, 40 stolen bases and the aforementioned 3.4 fWAR.

However, the trade—at first—doesn’t come off as the best for the Mariners.

They surrendered one of baseball’s better six or seven defensive catchers in Mike Zunino in the process (we’ll get to that in a bit), as well as reliable bench outfielder in Guillermo Heredia, to acquire a player who is very similar to a player already on Seattle’s roster, who happens to play the same position.

Mallex Smith in 2018: 544 PA, 3.4 fWAR, .367 OBP, .339 wOBA, 117 wRC+, 6.6 BsR, 4.1 UBR, .366 BABIP.

Ben Gamel in 2018: 293 PA, 1.0 fWAR, .358 OBP, .323 wOBA, 108 wRC+, 1.0 BsR, 0.9 UBR, .352 BABIP.

Smith was clearly better in 2018 on the base paths, but Gamel wasn’t far behind at the plate.

From a fielding standpoint, the metrics favor Smith in left field and Gamel in right field. The ex-Ray though, primarily plays center field, a position that his new teammate has only ever logged 35 innings at in the Majors.

What is clear here, though, is that Smith is an upgrade in the outfield.

He’ll likely start alongside Gamel, as well as Mitch Haniger, on Opening Day.

But Seattle paid a steep price to bring Smith back to the Pacific Northwest.

That price? Mike Zunino.

Catching Help Needed

Heredia and Plassmeyer are notable losses for a relatively thin organization—at least from a depth standpoint.

But Zunino’s loss will sting the most.

And, depending on how the rest of the offseason plays out, could very well sting well into next summer.

For all the holes in his game, Zunino has developed into an elite defensive catcher, and was excellent in that regard in 2018.

Only Wilson Contreras, Salvador Perez, James McCann, Martin Maldonado and Jonathan Lucroy had a higher Def (defensive runs above average) rating among Major League backstops than Zunino’s 10.9 metric.

He finished second among catchers in DRS, with a healthy +12 number and was ranked by Statcorner as one of the league’s better pitch framers last season.

That kind of production will be hard to replace.

Zunino was the driving force behind Seattle catchers ranking eighth in the league in collective Def. He also turned in a 1.5 fWAR that was largely impacted by a 37.0% strikeout rate that sapped his offensive numbers.

Still, the catcher did manage 20 home runs and a .200 ISO.

Catchers with that kind of power and fielding prowess are hard to find.

And they don’t come cheap either.

MLBTradeRumors projects Zunino to earn $4.2 million in 2019. Shaving that number from the books will help Seattle save some money, which doesn’t hurt.

But, it wasn’t an overtly exorbitant salary either, and will look like a bargain compared to what Seattle could have to pay for a similarly-competent catcher on the open market.

Yasmani Grandal, one of those few catchers who (like Zunino) combines elite defense, positive pitch framing and power, is predicted by MLBTradeRumors to earn a four year, $64 million contract this winter. That’s an AAV of $16 million.

The same publication predicts a three-year, $36 million deal for fellow free agent backstop Wilson Ramos. Ramos isn’t quite the pitch framer or defensive presence that Grandal or Zunino is, but he’s a more complete offensive player than the ex-Mariner. His predicted AAV from MLBTradeRumors sits at $12 million.

After that, the market drops off a bit, and includes players like Robinson Chirinos, Kurt Suzuki, Martin Maldonado and Jonathan Lucroy.

And at this point in time, all four would be downgrades from Zunino. And, it wouldn’t be a shock to see all, or most of the group out earn the former Florida Gator standout in 2018.

Coming off an up-and-down 2017 that was largely propped up (at least from a hitting standpoint) from his brief spell in Colorado, Lucroy and his 2017 fWAR of 1.1 netted a $6.5 million, one-year contract from Oakland, per Spotrac.

If Seattle isn’t shy about tacking on payroll, then the decision to trade Zunino is fine. They can overspend a bit on Grandal or Ramos to ensure there isn’t a significant drop off behind the plate.

However, if the organization’s goal is to pare down the payroll some this offseason—regardless of team direction—this move doesn’t add up.

The Mariners don’t have anywhere near the prospect capital to go and get J.T. Realmuto. Even if they pooled all their best trade chips (Kyle Lewis, Logan Gilbert, Evan White and Julio Rodriguez) it probably still isn’t enough.

Seattle would have to do something drastic like toss in Marco Gonzales to get a Realmuto deal done. And then they’d be stuck with another hole to fill after trading from a thin position to upgrade at another.

Wait, that sounds familiar…

Moving Forward in the Offseason

This isn’t the last move the Seattle Mariners will make this offseason.

They only have one catcher, David Freitas, on the 40-man roster. So, there’s likely going to be additions in that regard.

But, moving Zunino with no immediate replacement on hand isn’t ideal.

Catcher is a relatively thin position around the league, and Zunino is one of the best options you’ll find.

If Seattle are going to upgrade from him, they’ll need to spend heavily, whether it be via free agency or via trade.

Otherwise, they could be looking at a net-loss where fWAR is concerned heading into 2019.

Smith will certainly add value to the outfield, but he’s bound for some serious regression at the dish thanks to his .366 BABIP.

Offensively, his stat line might be closer to resembling the one he registered back in 2017. That season, he notched an 88 wRC+ and a .301 wOBA in 282 plate appearances.

Realistically, Smith’s production at the plate may fall somewhere between his 2017 and 2018 offensive outputs.

And that’s fine with his base running and defense, but does it merit giving up a potential 2-3 win catcher? Maybe not.

In Conclusion

Is Mallex Smith an upgrade for the Seattle Mariners? Sure. But his acquisition has also created a need at catcher. A need that won’t be easily filled with a player of Zunino’s caliber.

Viewed in the entire context of the offseason, this trade may look different in a few months as Dipoto and company continue to fill out the M’s roster ahead of Spring Training 2019.

But for now, it’s very much a robbing Peter to pay Paul kind of deal, and with the price of quality catchers these days, that might not be the best move—especially considering quality outfielders are a bit easier to find.

Know Hitter

Mallex Smith, Mike Zunino Trade Breakdown: M’s rob Peter to pay Paul