The Texas Rangers aren’t very good right now. That’s the blunt way of putting it. But they have the financial flexibility to turn things around quickly. All things considered, should they trade Nomar Mazara?
Are the Texas Rangers rebuilding or they angling for a quick turnaround?
We’ll address the Mazara question momentarily, but the primary question to mull over here is where the Rangers are as an organization.
They arguably play in MLB‘s toughest division alongside the Astros, Athletics, Mariners and Angels.
Plus, the Rangers are devoid of a lot of long-term solutions across the diamond.
Sure, there’s Jose Leclerc, but at the rate Texas is going, he seems like a decent bet to be traded.
Then there’s Ronald Guzman at first base and power-oriented threats in Joey Gallo and Willie Calhoun. And there’s Nomar Mazara.
A 23-year-old who already has close to three Major League seasons under his belt. Mazara hasn’t had a true breakout season, per se, but he’s been around league average all three seasons and has mashed 20 home runs in each year.
To put it in perspective, he’s the same age as Miguel Andujar, Austin Meadows, Harrison Bader, Ramon Laureano and Clint Frazier and already has 60 career home runs and a .745 lifetime OPS to his name.
It feels like a said breakout season is more a matter of when then if at this point.
He’s also, per Spotrac, controllable for the next three seasons via arbitration.
Other than that, Texas’ roster is littered with veterans coming off struggling seasons and a pair of established players (Elvis Andrus and Shin-Soo Choo) who are still productive but might not be part of the team’s next winning team.
This is, of course, assuming Adrian Beltre either departs via free agency or retires.
But that’s close to it.
The roster is light years away from competing with the Astros and A’s.
Money, Money and More Money
Then there’s Texas’ monetary outlook.
And by that I mean the number of players they can waive goodbye to in free agency to clear up cash to go after marquee free agents.
That’s jargon generally reserved for NBA prose, but it’s the case with the Rangers, who after seeing the contracts of Beltre, Gallardo and Colon expire can bid adieu to an additional four players by declining the players’ respective team options for the 2019 season.
Those four players include:
(All salary information via Spotrac)
- Doug Fister—$4.5 million 2019 team option can be declined.
- Martin Perez—$7.5 million 2019 team option can be bought out for $750K.
- Matt Moore—$10 million 2019 team option can be bought out for $750K.
- Robinson Chirinos—$2.375 million 2019 team option can be declined.
Assuming Texas moves on from the quartet as well as Beltre, Gallardo and Colon, the only players on contracts that aren’t pre-arbitration or in the midst of arbitration are Choo, Andrus, Mike Minor, Rougned Odor and Chris Martin.
And even then, there’s the chance that Andrus could depart. According to Spotrac, He can opt out of his deal after the season.
He’d be leaving $58 million through 2022—plus a $15 million club option for 2023—on the table, but stranger things have happened.
That puts the Rangers firmly in the running, at least from a monetary standpoint, for players like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel.
Whether Texas actually is able to sign any combination of those players remains to be seen. But is it financially feasible for one or two of them to end up in a Rangers uniform next spring? Yes. Yes, it is.
2019 & Beyond
Are the Texas Rangers rebuilding or they angling for a quick turnaround?
Because the answer to that question should have a direct baring on whether they should look to trade Mazara or not this offseason.
Even if Texas doesn’t sign Harper, Machado or any of the top-tier free agents and focuses more on free agents from the next tier down like Eduardo Escobar, Michael Brantley, Nathan Eovaldi, Lance Lynn and Kelvin Herrera, they should keep Mazara in hopes of trying to cobble together a winner in the early parts of 2019. Quick turnarounds have happened before.
They can always move him at the deadline if the team struggles out of the gate.
However, if Texas opts for a rebuild, trading Mazara for a significant return should be their top priority.
Sure, a better 2018 could have helped his trade stock some, but the fact remains that he’s still just 23 and has the upside to be a franchise cornerstone.
That and three years of team control via arbitration will net you a pretty penny on the trade market. And Texas could use the prospect capital to boost a farm system that is hardly plentiful with prospects.
The Rangers have promising outfield prospects Leody Taveras and Julio Pablo Martinez, as well as pitcher and 2018 first-round pick Cole Winn, but there isn’t a ton of depth.
Taveras and Martinez’ presence in the system makes Mazara more expendable long-term in the sense that A, he very well could burn through his arbitration years before Texas returns to prominence. And B, Tavares and Martinez should be close to Major League ready, if not already established in the Majors by that point.
Either one would be able to step into the long-term outfield slot vacated by Mazara.
Conceivable Trade Partners
At this point, if the Rangers go for a full-blown rebuild, moving Mazara makes more than enough sense. And they won’t be short of suitors if they decide to make a move.
The seemingly ever-contending (or at least consistently trying to contend) San Francisco Giants have nothing in the way of short-term or long-term outfield options save the far off Heliot Ramos.
If the White Sox want to accelerate the team’s rebuild and add Mazara by delving into their deep stores of prospects in the same way Milwaukee did with Christin Yelich last winter, their could be a fit there.
That’s not to say that Mazara will suddenly turn into an MVP candidate like Yelich, but in terms of Chicago adding a young bat to their core in the same way Milwaukee did, the parallels are there.
The Rockies are also a fit, as they could use a cost-effective bat on the roster.
Given Nolan Arenado’s upcoming free agency next winter and the lavish deals recently handed to Charlie Blackmon, Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Michael Dunn and Jake McGee, a comparatively cheaper Mazara would be an ideal addition.
Not only that, but he’d allow the Rockies to redistribute the money invested in 2018 on fellow outfielders Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra elsewhere on the roster.
Other speculative fits include Cleveland, Atlanta, Seattle and Oakland.
In hypothetical trade scenario, Texas wouldn’t be amiss in asking for the other team’s best prospect. In fact, they should. That’s the kind of return that befits a player with Mazara’s youth, controllability, track record and upside.
The Rangers obviously aren’t under any rush to move Mazara—they do have him under control for the next three years—but unless he starts producing like an MVP candidate early in 2019, his value may be at its highest now thanks to the number arbitration years remaining.
So should the Texas Rangers consider trading Nomar Mazara this winter?
Yeah, they probably should.
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