Picks for all the major 2018 MLB awards, including MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year as well as Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winners. I also take a stab at the Platinum Glove winners.
AL MVP: Mookie Betts
NL MVP: Christin Yelich
These two should be set in stone at this point.
Yes, Mike Trout was phenomenal again, but Betts was actually a tad bit better from a statistical standpoint.
Mookie Betts in 2018: 614 PA, 10.4 fWAR, .449 wOBA, 185 wRC+, .640 slug%, .294 ISO, 13.2 BB%, 14.8 K%,
Mike Trout in 2018: 608 PA, 9.8 fWAR, .447 wOBA, 191 wRC+, .628 slug%, .316 ISO, 20.1 BB%, 20.4 K%.
The fact that Betts was a catalyst on an 108-win Red Sox team and Trout was, well… Trout played on the 80-82 Angels, also tipped the scales.
Meanwhile, Yelich helped put the finishing touches on the Brewers’ rebuild and vaulted them into the contending team stratosphere with a season that saw him pace all National League position players in fWAR (7.6), wRC+ (166), wOBA (.422), OPS (1.000) and slugging percentage (.598).
Yelich also finished in the top five in home runs (36, tied for third), ISO (.272, second) and on-base percentage (.402, third). The outfielder was also elite on the base paths with a UBR that was fourth in the Senior Circuit.
As icing on the cake, he also didn’t strike out all that much, fanning on 20.7% of his plate appearances. That rate was good for 39th in the National League among all qualified hitters.
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom
Verlander’s name is listed first, but we’ll start with deGrom in the National League. Max Scherzer’s season was more than deserving of this award had deGrom not pitched, but it’s impossible to ignore the phenomenal season by the Mets’ ace.
The hurler led all of baseball in fWAR (8.8) by a wide margin. For reference, Scherzer was second at 7.2.
deGrom also kept both his ERA (1.70) and FIP (1.99) under 2.00 for an entire season, which is award-worthy just in its own right.
But it wasn’t just run-prevention numbers. deGrom had the following rankings among qualified NL starters:
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WHIP, T-1st (0.91)
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K/9, 2nd (11.16)
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IP, 2nd (217)
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SwStr%, 3rd (15.1%)
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BB%, 5th, (5.5%)
Then there’s Verlander, who lost out on the 2016 Cy Young for being left off the ballots entirely of two voters.
The future Hall of Famer should at the very least be on everyone’s ballots this year, if not a definite front runner for the award.
Name a stat and Verlander probably is near the top of the leaderboards in that category.
He finished no worse than third in the following statistics: fWAR, WHIP, SwStr%, FIP, innings pitched, ERA, BB%, SIERA, FIP- and BB/9.
Also, per the fWAR stat, Verlander was the American League’s best pitcher by a half a win over teammate Gerrit Cole. Cole has a legitimate shot, as does Cleveland’s Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer, but this award is Verlander’s.
AL ROY: Shohei Ohtani
The first legitimate two-way player in a long time, Ohtani slugged .564 with a .279 ISO, a 152 wRC+, a .390 wOBA, a 10.1 BB% and 22 home runs in 367 plate appearances at the dish. He also logged a 2.8 fWAR as a hitter.
He was limited to just 10 starts (51.2 innings pitched) on the mound, but his numbers were similarly impressive.
51.2 IP, 10.97 K/9, 15.2 SwStr%, 3.83 BB/9, 3.31 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 3.65 SIERA, 1.16 WHIP, 1.05 HR/9, 1.0 fWAR.
Easy call.
NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
It could be coin flip with Acuna and Juan Soto. Both played in a similar number of games, had the same fWAR (3.7) and are a similar age (Acuna is 20, Soto is 19). But Acuna gets the nod. Atlanta making the postseason helped.
A small sampling of Acuna’s 2018 stats: .259 ISO, .388 wOBA, 143 wRC+, 26 HRs, 16 SB, 1.6 UBR.
And he did all that in just 467 plate appearances.
AL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin
NL Manager of the Year: Craig Counsell
Oakland and Milwaukee both took significant strides forward this year, jumping out of rebuilding process to claim postseason berths.
The A’s stellar play left the Mariners and a really good 90-win Rays team at home, while the Brewers battled all the way to Game 163 to claim the National League Central crown—in Chicago no less.
American League Gold Gloves
C: Martin Maldonado
In different circumstances, the pick would be Salvador Perez who led all Junior Circuit backstops rSB & Def and had a decent DRS. However, he was baseball’s worst pitch framer in 2018, per Statcorner.
Maldonado finished third in Def and finished tied for second behind Perez in rSB with a +3 metric. What’s more, he graded out with a higher DRS (+3) than Perez’ outlay in the category (+1).
He’s also one of the game’s better pitch framers.
1B: Matt Olson
Pretty cut and dry. Leads all AL first baseman in just about every defensive category from DRS to UZR/150 and Def. He also has the most innings of the group by far, making his defensive achievements even more impressive. Olson’s 1,403.1 innings are over 200 more than the next player on the list, Yonder Alonso with 1,168.1.
2B: Ian Kinsler
Kinsler has only won one Gold Glove since 2014, which is a shame considering he’s far and away been the best defensive second baseman in baseball in that span.
His +67 DRS is a staggering 19 points ahead of the next best second baseman, DJ LeMahieu. He also has a similarly commanding lead in terms of Def, or defensive runs above average. The Red Sox veteran owns a 43.8 metric in the category since the start of 2014. LeMahieu is once again a distant second with a 31.1 number.
Over the same span, Kinsler is also second in UZR/150, third in defensive innings.
Kinsler should nab his second Gold Glove in three seasons this time around. His Def (11.6) paces American League second baseman and he’s a close second in both UZR/150 (9.4) and DRS (10) to Joey Wendle (+10.7) and Rougned Odor (+11) respectively
SS: Andrelton Simmons
The dude’s got a +21 DRS, a 19.5 UZR/150 and a 26.2 Def. What more need I say?
3B: Matt Chapman
Chapman, like his Oakland teammate Olson, is the clear favorite at the position. He’s saved nearly 30 runs (+29 DRS) and was the only player in the American League at the hot corner to register double digits in both UZR/150 and Def.
OF: Alex Gordon– 1,085 innings +18 DRS, 15.8 UZR/150, 7.5 Def
OF: Mookie Betts- 1,000.1 innings, +20 DRS, 15.3 UZR/150, 10.1 Def.
OF: JaCoby Jones– 1,010.1 innings, +21 DRS, 14.8 UZR/150.
Gordon and Betts predominantly played left and right field respectively, and they were elite there. Jones, who split time between left and center field in Detroit, lead all Major League outfielder in total defensive runs saved with a +21 DRS.
His UZR/150 rating was second only to Betts among Junior Circuit outfielders
P: Mike Leake
In his first full season in the Pacific Northwest, Leake was tied for the league among American League hurlers in DRS and was second in rSB.
With pitchers, there isn’t a clear front runner in the American League like there is at first base, shortstop and third base.
It’s a crowded field that also includes Marco Gonzales, Justin Verlander, Kyle Gibson and Corey Kluber as worthy winners.
Platinum Glove: Andrelton Simmons
Betts’ fielding prowess in the outfield grass will make it close, but Simmons has continued to be a cut above everyone else with a glove in his hands.
National League Gold Gloves
C: Wilson Contreras
Another tough call as Yasmani Grandal has done more than enough to claim the award. The Dodgers’ backstop could win it and no one would argue it.
That being said, Contreras gets the call despite being a much worse pitch framer than his counterpart in Los Angeles.
Per Statcorner, Chicago’s starting catcher was baseball’s 11th-worst pitch framer while Grandal was only bettered in the category by Arizona’s Jeff Mathis.
That being said, Contreras’ other defensive Metrics make him the front runner.
Wilson Contreras in 2018: 1,109.2 innings, 5 rSB, +2 DRS, 14.5 Def.
Yasmani Grandal in 2018: 1,037.1 innings, 0 rSB, +9 DRS, 8.9 Def.
1B: Freddie Freeman
As with catcher in the National League, there are two clear front runners—Freeman and Joey Votto.
Freeman has the edge in most all categories, including DRS (+12 to Votto’s +9), UZR/150 (8.2 to Votto’s 5.0) and Def (-4.3 to Votto’s -4.8).
2B: DJ LeMahieu
With Ian Kinsler over in the American League, DJ LeMahieu has a clear path to his second straight Gold Glove and third overall at second base.
He’s 10 points ahead of Ozzie Albies for the lead at the position in terms of DRS with a +18 number, and nearly doubled Albies’ 6.6 UZR/150 with a 12.5 UZR/150.
The Rockies’ veteran and impending free agent also holds the advantage in terms of Def with a 12.9 number topping Albies’ 9.0 output.
Had he been qualified in terms of number of innings, Kolten Wong (+19 DRS, 17.6 UZR/150, 15.0 Def) probably would have taken the award home.
That being said, the finalists should be LeMahieu, Albies and either Ketel Marte or Scooter Gennett and the award should go to LeMahieu.
SS: Paul DeJong
Defensive metrics are once again king, with DeJong leading the pack at the position in DRS (+14), UZR/150 (9.3) and Def (12.3).
3B: Nolan Arenado
Arenado has a seven-year streak on the line, having won the award every season he’s been in the Majors.
He’s done nothing to hurt his chances in 2018, with some strong defensive numbers—+5 DRS, 5.2 UZR/150, 8.1 Def.
OF: Lorenzo Cain– 1,180 innings, +20 DRS, -0.6 ARM, 11.9 UZR/150, 10.7 Def.
OF: Ender Inciarte– 1,341 innings, +17 DRS, -1.3 ARM, 7.4 UZR/150, 9.5 Def.
OF: Corey Dickerson– 1,057.1 innings, +16 DRS, 0.9 ARM, 11.9 UZR/150, 3.2 Def.
The National League isn’t quite as deep as the American League in terms of outfielders who graded out at an elite level this past season.
Cain and Inciarte were locks, but the third spot was more up in the air. Chicago’s Kyle Schwarber has a legitimate claim to the award in left field, but Dickerson gets the nod.
The duo had similar UZR/150 and Def scores, but Dickerson’s DRS blew Schwarber’s out of the water by 14 and played more innings in the field. The Cubs outfielder did have a superior ARM total (7.9 to 0.9), but Dickerson gets the nod.
P: Zack Greinke
Greinke was one of two National League pitchers with a +7 DRS this year—the other being Atlanta’s Julio Teheran. Arizona’s ace, however, has the Atlanta hurler beat with a better rSB score.
Platinum Glove: DJ LeMahieu
Again, Wong would have been the front runner here had he hit the innings threshold required to qualify. In his place, LeMahieu should once again take home honors. Contreras and DeJong would also be worthy winners.
American League Silver Slugger Picks
C: Wilson Ramos
The catcher position is not what it once was in the American League, at least from an offensive standpoint.
Ramos only played part of the season with the Rays before being flipped to the Phillies at the trade deadline, but he gets the nod.
The veteran registered a .191 ISO, a .358 wOBA and a 130 wRC+ in 315 plate appearances for the Rays.
Yan Gomes, Omar Narvaez and Robinson Chirinos are other candidates to watch.
1B: Justin Smoak
Again, another position that isn’t what it once was. Gone are the days of prime Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Justin Morneau, Kevin Youkilis and Paul Konerko.
Admittedly, Cabrera is still around in Detroit, but he’s the last player from a generation of offensive first baseman that were the driving force behind American League offenses.
Smoak is the pick this year in a field that isn’t near as deep.
The Toronto first baseman led all AL players at his position in wOBA, walk rate and on-base percentage and finished second in wRC+. His ISO (.216) lagged a bit behind C.J. Cron, but the ex-Mariner’s more complete offensive profile should earn him the award.
2B: Jose Altuve
Altuve has won the last four versions of this award and should do so again despite dark horse candidates in Whit Merrifield, Jed Lowrie and Joey Wendle.
His wOBA and wRC+ are way ahead of the pack, as his OPS. As an added bonus, Altuve also had the highest slugging percentage. So that’s fun.
SS: Francisco Lindor
If you thought 2017 was an impressive offensive showing from Lindor, wait until you see his 2018 stat line.
The Cleveland shortstop made improvements in the following categories—wOBA, wRC+, slugging percentage, OPS, OBP, batting average, ISO, BB%, home runs, runs scored and stolen bases.
Let me remind you, he was a 5.8-win player in 2017 with a .353 wOBA.
He should have the award locked up in 2018 after turning in this other-worldly stat line:
7.6 fWAR, 745 PA, 38 HR, .242 ISO, .352 OBP, .368 wOBA, 130 wRC+,.871 OPS, 9.4 BB%, 14.4 K%, 41.6% hard hit rate.
3B: Alex Bregman
The toughest call on this list, it’s a near coin-flip between Ramirez and Alex Bregman, both of whom should finish in the top five in American League MVP voting. I initially went with Bregman, changed my mind to Ramirez and then switched back to Bregman.
Alex Bregman in 2018: 7.6 fWAR, 705 PA, 13.6 BB%, 12.1 K%, 157 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .532 slug%, .394 OBP, .246 ISO, 35.4% hard-hit rate, 31 HRs.
Jose Ramirez in 2018: 8.1 fWAR, 698 PA, 15.2 BB%, 11.5 K%, 147 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .555 slug%, .388 OBP, .284 ISO, 36.1% hard-hit rate, 39 HRs.
Some of Bregman’s overall hitting metrics—wRC+, wOBA—give him the slight edge. By the same token though, Ramirez’ pure power numbers—ISO, slug% and HRs—paint him as the leader in the clubhouse.
Ultimately, I went the wRC+/wOBA route instead of the pure power route.
You really can’t go wrong with either here, but I’m going with Bregman.
OF: Mookie Betts
OF: Mike Trout
OF: Mitch Haniger
Shocking, I know. No J.D. Martinez. But he’s a shoe-in for the Silver Slugger at designated hitter. After all, he did play the majority of his games there.
Were he an outfielder, he would have been the obvious choice alongside Betts and Trout.
Taking that spot in the outfield troika is Haniger.
It could have been Nicholas Castellanos, it could have been Aaron Hicks. You could have rightfully made a case for Giancarlo Stanton or Michael Brantley or Andrew Benintendi.
But Haniger takes the cake.
The Seattle outfielder earned All-Star honors in 2018 while turning in the best season of his career to date. He set career highs in literally every statistical category.
His wRC+ (138) and wOBA (.367) were both firmly above average. His .208 ISO, 10.2 BB% and 26 home runs don’t look too shabby either.
DH: J.D. Martinez
As with the outfield, Stanton is in with a shout, and in a vacuum, Khris Davis, Nelson Cruz and perhaps Shohei Ohtani are worth considering, but this is really Martinez’ award to lose.
His ISO (.299) nearly eclipsed the .300 mark, giving him the third-highest mark in the category in the American League.
Martinez also finished top three in the AL in home runs (second), batting average (second), slugging percentage (second), OBP (third), wOBA (third) and wRC+ (third)
He was also tied for 12th in walk rate and finished with the lowest strikeout rate (22.5%) of his career in a season with more than 450 plate appearances.
National League Silver Slugger Picks
C: J.T. Realmuto
Grandal again finishes a close second, but Miami’s starting backstop should claim this honor.
He was one of the National League’s better offensive players despite missing time early.
His offensive metrics are percentage points away from Grandal’s in many cases. Realmuto strikes out less, Grandal walks more.
But Realmuto’s slight leads in wOBA, wRC+ and slugging percentage give him the slight advantage.
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt has reeled off four straight seasons with a 5.0 or higher fWAR and has achieved the feat in five of the last six years.
He was once again an offensive weapon at the plate.
Despite his lowest on-base percentage since 2012, the first baseman still finished second among qualified National League first baseman in the statistic.
He was also third in home runs and ISO, second in slugging percentage and first in both wOBA and wRC+.
Matt Carpenter deserves serious consideration here for the quality year he had for the Cardinals, but the numbers favor Goldschmidt.
2B: Javier Baez
You could vote for Javy Baez for MVP and feel ok about it. He’s had that kind of season.
He saw significant time at shortstop, as well as a bit at third base, but Baez played the bulk of his games at the keystone, where he should win the award.
He was the only second baseman in baseball –not just the National League—with an ISO north of .200 and also paced the position in home runs by a significant margin.
Among the other categories that Baez led all second baseman (Jose Altuve, Whit Merrifield and Jed Lowrie included) were wOBA and OPS.
SS: Trevor Story
Trevor Story kind of went bananas at the plate in 2018.
Here’s his stat line.
645 PA, 34 home runs, 7.2 BB%, 25.6 K%, .291 avg, .348 OBP, .567 slug%, .384 wOBA, 127 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR, 44.5 hard-hit rate.
If we’re counting Baez as a second baseman, which we are, Story led all National League shortstops in all of those statistical categories save the walk and strikeout rates and plate appearances.
3B: Nolan Arenado
Anthony Rendon might have the edge thanks to his fewer strikeouts and a slightly higher wRC+, but Arenado has the edge thanks to significantly better power numbers.
You can’t go wrong in picking one of Rendon, Arenado or Eugenio Suarez, but the Colorado third baseman is the front runner.
OF: Christian Yelich
OF: Bryce Harper
OF: Brandon Nimmo
We’ve covered Yelich in-depth, and Harper’s inclusion on this list shouldn’t be a surprise.
What is a surprise is Nimmo, who quietly had a breakout campaign at the plate with a .385 wOBA and a 149 wRC+ in 535 plate appearances. Only Yelich, the MVP front runner, had higher metrics among National League outfielders.
Nimmo also chipped in with a .404 OBP, a .219 ISO, a .483 slugging percentage, a 15.0% walk rate and 17 home runs.
P: Michael Lorenzen
Clayton Kershaw (0.8) has the highest fWAR among pitchers at the plate, but the award goes to Lorenzen, who has twice as many home runs as the next pitchers on the leaderboards.
Lorenzen also hit .290 with a .333 OBP, five runs scored, a 1.043 OPS, a .710 slugging percentage, a .432 wOBA, a 173 wRC+ and a .419 ISO.
It’s an extremely small sample size and should be taken with a massive grain of salt considering Lorenzen is a pitcher.
But still, Lorenzen is a pitcher.
To put his home run totals in perspective, Lorenzen had twice as many home runs in just 34 plate appearances then Logan Forsythe did in 393 plate appearances. He also went yard the same number of times as Matt Duffy (560 PA), Jonathan Lucroy (454 PA), had just one home run less than Buster Posey (448 PA) and half as many as Jason Heyward (489 PA) and Josh Harrison (374 PA).
Home runs obviously aren’t everything, but what Lorenzen did in 2018 was impressive.
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