The 2019 MLB season is finally here!
We’re skipping the preamble and going straight to the predictions. Here are my picks for each division winner, the wild card game participants and some major award winners.
American League West: Houston Astros
The A’s are still relevant in what should be a two-horse race in the American League Central. The Mariners are taking a bit of a step back and the Angels, well, the Angels are still doing that thing where they waste Mike Trout’s prime and finish with 78-84 wins.
You could make the case for Oakland here and no one would look at you funny, but the A’s still have rotation issues that need sorting out.
A Mike Fiers, Marco Estrade pairing at the top of the rotation isn’t exactly up their with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, or Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer, or Luis Severino and James Paxton, or Blake Snell and Charlie Morton or… ok, you get the picture.
The A’s rotation may hold them back from making it back to the postseason this year.
American League Central: Minnesota Twins
Cleveland lost a lot from last season’s team. A lot.
Michael Brantley is gone. Andrew Miller is gone. Yan Gomes is gone. So are Lonnie Chisenhall and Edwin Encarnacion. Josh Donaldson’s stay in Ohio was a short one.
Cleveland added Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana, and the rotation is as good as every with Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber, but a return to the postseason might not be in the cards for Cleveland.
They only won the division with 91 victories with all those departed players last season and will begin 2019 with Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis on the injured list. The outfield group (Leonys Martin, Tyler Naquin, Jordan Luplow, Greg Allen and Bauers) is far from contender-worthy.
On the other hand, Minnesota got a lot better. The Twins welcomed Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez, C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop to the fold. They’ll also benefit from more of Byron Buxton, Michael Pineda and Tyler Austin over the course of the season.
American League East: Tampa Bay Rays
Going out on a limb a bit here… or not really.
Tampa Bay is a quality baseball team. Quality enough to unseat the Red Sox and Yankees in the division.
The Rays won 90 games last year despite dealing Chris Archer and a bunch of other veterans like Jake Odorizzi, Steven Souza Jr., Alex Colome, Denard Span, Nathan Eovaldi, Wilson Ramos… I could keep going here… but I won’t.
The point is, the Rays saved a bunch of money and brought in some long-term cogs like Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, Ji-man Choi, Wilmer Font and Colin Poche. Those players, along with younger Rays already in the big leagues like Blake Snell, Willy Adames and Joey Wendle should make the Rays dangerous.
Tampa Bay used some of their new-found financial flexibility to sign Charlie Morton and bring on Mike Zunino via trade over the winter. Those two should make significant impacts, but the real player to watch in Tampa Bay is Tommy Pham.
Pham racked up a 2.5 fWAR in just 174 plate appearances with the Rays thanks to a staggering 191 wRC+, a .280 ISO a .448 OBP and a .447 wOBA.
Those numbers, propped up by a .442 BABIP, probably aren’t sustainable. But if Pham resembles the MVP dark horse, he was in 2017, then the Rays could be in line to make a deep postseason run.
American League Wild Card teams: Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.
This would be fun in a one-game playoff. Also, sorry Oakland.
- AL MVP: Mike Trout
- AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
- AL ROY: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
National League West: Los Angeles Dodgers
This might be baseball’s best division, what with the Padres suddenly going for it featuring a roster that now includes both Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. The Rockies are still very good and the Diamondbacks are a solid-looking group that with the right luck and circumstances could sneak their way to 85+ wins. Then there’s the Giants, who under Farhan Zaidi should be much improved.
The Dodgers, though, should still be the class of the NL West. A.J. Pollock is a solid addition, and the team is as versatile as ever with Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez.
Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler might be one of the best one-two punches in baseball and Kenley Jansen still lurks at the back end of the bullpen.
Losing Yasmani Grandal will hurt, but Austin Barnes and Russell Martin should be able to get the team through 2019 until Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith are ready to take over in 2020.
Alex Verdugo has a bright future and could start making an impact in the Majors this season, or be used as a trade chip to bring in another star as the summer goes on.
National League Central: Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee won a league-best 96 games last season and essentially swapped out Erik Kratz (0.8 fWAR, 70 wRC+) for Yasmani Grandal (4.9 fWAR, 125 wRC+) this winter. Grandal, who also happens to be one of baseball’s elite pitch framers, should provide a significant boost to the Brewers, who will look to fend off the Cubs and Cardinals for the second season running in the Central.
National League East: Atlanta
Philadelphia will make things close, but as of right now, Brian Snitker’s team is better. If the Phillies make some trades in season—they might still have the pieces to cobble together one last big trade—then this might be different.
But for now, Atlanta is the pick.
Bonus bold prediction: the Mets don’t get more than 84 wins.
National League Wild Card teams: Colorado Rockies & Chicago Cubs
It’s pretty boring to pick the same teams as last year, I know. But Colorado made the playoffs last year with 91 wins despite Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Mike Dunn and Wade Davis all having down seasons. If two or three of those players bounce back, which is a perfectly plausible outcome, this team could be even better despite losing Adam Ottavino.
Seung Hwan Oh (3.86 FIP, 10.13 K/9 in 21.1 innings for Colorado last year) will also be around for a full season, which should help and Charlie Blackmon no longer playing center field (1,322.1 innings, -10 Def, -28 DRS, -12.6 UZR/150, -4.6 ARM) should save a bevy of runs.
The Rockies also added Daniel Murphy, who could return to being a 3-5 win player with half of his home games coming in Colorado.
Speaking of Murphy’s former employer, the Cubs, Chicago will get a full season of Cole Hamels and a potential bounce-back year from Yu Darvish. They could make things close in the division again, but either way they look like a playoff-caliber team once again.
Daniel Descalso and David Bote give the team a pair of under the radar, quality and versatile bench pieces to support an already-strong lineup.
- NL MVP: Nolan Arenado
- NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer
- NL ROY: Fernando Tatis Jr.
World Series prediction: Houston Astros over the Milwaukee Brewers in six games
The Brewers, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers and Rays could all be suitable picks here as well, but I’ll go with Houston for a number of reasons.
One, they still retain much of their nucleus from the last two years and should benefit from full seasons of Michael Brantley and Tyler White in 2019.
Two, the Astros have the impact minor league talent (Forrest Whitley, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez) to either provide a necessary boost down the stretch or be flipped in a trade to bring in just about any player they want on the trade market.
