Deconstructing the Diamondbacks: Trade Ideas for Arizona’s 13 best trade chips

If the Arizona Diamondbacks opt for a rebuild this offseason, they should pursue these 10 trades in an effort to build for the future.

The Arizona Diamondbacks could be on the brink of a rebuild.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted the following on October 10.

In an article by Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and azcentral.com on October 9, general manager Mike Hazen was quoted as saying the following in regards to Arizona’ upcoming offseason:

“I still think we are going to try to be creative to start. I don’t know exactly where that will take us. … I think one of the takeaways for us was just to get a feel for what the trade market would be for various guys, evaluate the free-agent market as it comes out and see what happens, and reconvene.”

While that statement certainly doesn’t scream “rebuild,” it doesn’t exactly suggest the opposite, contending, either.

In fact, it’s probably closer to the pin in terms of a full-scale teardown than taking another shot at a World Series trophy.

While it remains to be seen just what the Diamondbacks will do this winter, a large, potentially departing, free agent class certainly won’t help Arizona in terms of staying in contention.

All told, nine different D-backs players will hit the open market this winter. Among them, outfielders A.J. Pollock and Jon Jay, infielder Daniel Descalso, backstops Jeff Mathis and Chris Stewart, starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Clay Buchholz and relievers Jake Diekman and Randall Delgado.

Arizona will have to replace the retired Brad Ziegler as well.

It spits out as a net loss of 10.8 in terms of fWAR if all nine players join Ziegler in no longer being on the Diamondbacks’ active roster in 2019.

That’s a lot of production to replace at multiple positions. And it won’t come cheap on the free agent market.

It won’t come cheap on the trade market either.

With significant financial commitments to Zack Greinke, Yasmany Tomas and a handful of others weighing heavy on the payroll, Arizona’s only feasible way to continued success could be via trades.

And unless they don’t move anyone currently in the Majors, thereby creating even more needs, the losses would have to come from the farm system.

Arizona’s farm system is in no way particularly deep, and is a bit top heavy after Jon Duplantier, Taylor Widener, Jazz Chisholm and Pavin Smith.

Save for the addition of Widener in the Steven Souza Jr./Brandon Drury trade, the Diamondbacks spent the year making win-now trades, further depleting their system’s depth.

(Although it should be noted that the deal to acquire Widener cost the organization Anthony Banda, so it’s a bit of a push in terms of net prospect gains/losses).

All since January, Arizona shed prospects to acquire Deven Marrero, Jay, Matt Andriese, Escobar, Ziegler and Diekman.

Only Andriese and Escobar are both on the 40-man roster and controllable past 2018.

Escobar, per a pair of tweets from Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic and azcentral sports re-signed with the Diamondbacks on a reported three-year deal worth $21 million.

Arizona later announced the move in a tweet on the team’s official Twitter account on October 22.

Even with Escobar back in the fold, it’s not the most ideal outlook. Especially for a franchise that just finished the year 82-80 and buried in a division that features the now two time, defending National League champion Dodgers, the steady Rockies and the up-and-coming Padres. Also, the Giants, who seem destined never to fully rebuild.

And perhaps that’s what Arizona should do.

Fully rebuild.

If the Diamondbacks’ window to contend is shrinking, it will only become more minuscule as time goes by.

In addition to potentially losing Corbin and Pollock (who together accounted for 8.8 of that aforementioned and collective 10.8 fWAR of departing free agents), more substantial losses via the free agent market could conceivably be coming soon.

If his $14.5 million team option (all salary information via Spotrac) for 2019 exercised, Paul Goldschmidt will become a free agent once next season is done and dusted.

What’s more, the 2020 season represents the last year of team control for core members such as third baseman Jake Lamb, shortstop Nick Ahmed, outfielders David Peralta and Souza Jr. and starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Robbie Ray.

The Diamondbacks core is shrinking, and over time it’ll be significantly harder to keep hold of all those players from a financial standpoint.

Hazen and company should act and start moving some of those pieces now before their core starts to dissolve. Because as it stands, there isn’t enough in the farm system to sustain a consistent winner.

Below is a look at the Arizona Diamondbacks’ 13 best trade chips, the best trade fits for those players, and the deals the D-backs should be making this winter.

(This is all speculative, mind you.)

Best Arizona Diamondbacks Trade Chips

Before we dive fully into the rankings and trade fits, it should be pointed out that both Taijuan Walker and Jake Lamb would have ranked extremely high on this list were both healthy in 2018. If both can return to full health and effectiveness, they’ll be quality trade chips, but until then, Arizona is better served holding on to them and rebuilding their value.

Elsewhere, players under long-term control like Zack Godley, Socrates Brito, Silvino Bracho, Ketel Marte and John Ryan Murphy weren’t considered. Arizona has to have some pieces to build around, right?

Escobar also doesn’t make the list. It probably wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense for Arizona to re-sign him and then trade him mere months or weeks later.

And now to the rankings.

  1. Robbie Ray

Notable 2018 Stats: 1.3 fWAR, 4.31 FIP, 3.89 SIERA, 12.01 K/9, 12.8 SwStr%,
Trade Fits: Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners
Conceivable Trade Proposal: Robbie Ray to Houston for Derek Fisher, AJ Reed and Rogelio Armenteros

There was real consideration to put Peralta here, but in the end, Ray got the nod considering his controllability, actual pitching ability and the fact that quality, above-average starting pitchers are a bit harder to find then quality, above-average corner outfielders.

When he’s on, Ray is an above-average, front-line starter with excellent stuff. He compiled an 8.5 fWAR from 2015 to 2017, good for 29th among all qualified starters. It came in just behind Rick Porcello and James Paxton.

Even when he doesn’t have the best season—see 2018—the former Tiger and National farmhand still misses a stupid number of bats.

Among all starting pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched this past season, Ray checked in at 17th in swinging strike percentage with a 12.9% number, finishing percentage points behind Trevor Bauer (13.3%) and Chris Archer (13.1%) and ahead of the likes of Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, Corey Kluber, Jon Gray and Stephen Strasburg.

With two more years of controllability left via arbitration (per Spotrac), he’d net Arizona a pretty penny in return.

That pretty penny could come from Houston, an organization in need of some rotation help.

That may sound nonsensical after the Astros’ rotation finished second in the league in fWAR and led the league in strikeouts per nine innings and FIP, but Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton are free agents.

Even if Lance McCullers Jr. steps back into a starting role, there’s still a pair of open spot to fill alongside Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole—that is assuming Keuchel and Morton sign elsewhere.

Ray is already entirely successful on his own in Arizona in terms of missing bats and being effective, but a switch to Houston could work out for the starter in the same way that Cole took things to another level upon joining the American League West organization.

The 27-year-old would also give Houston a bit more long-term security in the rotation. Verlander and Cole will be free agents after 2019, leaving McCullers Jr. and perhaps Josh James as the only other long-term rotation candidates.

What’s more, all three pieces from Houston’s side of the equation are expendable.

Fisher is blocked in the outfield, while Reed is buried at first base behind Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White. Similarly, Armenteros’ loss could be more than made up for by Ray’s arrival.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Side of the Trade

Derek Fisher’s prospect status isn’t exactly what it was a few years ago.

But the 25-year-old still brings an intriguing blend of power and speed. Strikeouts are an issue, but he has the tools to be a suitable replacement for Pollock in Arizona.

He’s also just about proven everything that he can in Triple-A. He’s ready for consistent playing time in the Majors.

What’s more, he may be surplus to requirements in Houston with Tony Kemp, Jake Marisnick, Kyle Tucker and perhaps Myles Straw ahead of him on the

The other two players in the deal, Reed and Thornton, could immediately step into Arizona’s everyday lineup.

Reed at first base if Paul Goldschmidt is dealt and Thornton as either a rotation option or a swingman out of the bullpen.

Armenteros, 24, pitched to a 3.74 ERA, a 4.42 FIP and 10.22 strikeouts per nine frames in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League last season for Houston’s Triple-A affiliate.

Even if Zack Greinke isn’t traded, he could still play a role, soaking up some of the innings vacated by Corbin and Buchholz.

MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranks him as Houston’s 12th-best prospect.

  1. David Peralta

Notable 2018 Stats: 3.8 fWAR, .368 wOBA, 23.4 HR/FB Ratio, 130 wRC+.
Trade Fits: Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies
Conceivable Trade Proposal: David Peralta to Oakland for Sheldon Neuse, Jorge Mateo, James Naile and Chad Pinder

To say David Peralta’s 2018 was a breakout could seem like a bit of an odd statement considering his on-base percentage and batting average were identical to his outputs in both categories in 2017 (for reference, .352 and .293 respectively).

Still, break out Peralta did.

The outfielder mashed a career-best 30 home runs—up from 14 in 2017—and also set personal bests in the following categories:

  • Plate appearances: 614
  • fWAR: 3.8
  • wRC+: 130
  • wOBA: .368
  • Hard-hit ratio: 48.5%
  • HR/FB rate: 23.4%
  • Slug%: .516
  • BB%: 7.8%
  • ISO: .223

For a player’s second full season, it was a significantly encouraging sign. Moving forward, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Peralta continue to take steps forward at the dish.

If Arizona goes for it, he’s a surefire fit to stay.

But, if they rebuild—which, let’s be honest, is why we’re here with this article—he’s a prime candidate to be moved.

Peralta only has two years of arbitration eligibility left, per Spotrac.

The outfielder will likely be expensive to retain once that eligibility expires. And, truth be told, he could get expensive before that happens as well.

MLBTradeRumors’ arbitration salary projections has Peralta set to take home $7.7 million next season.

At 31, it might be time to sell high.

That’s not a knock on Peralta, who will likely has many productive years ahead of him. It’s just that he’ll have fewer productive years than say if he was 26 at the time of his breakout.

Plus, if Arizona’s rebuild is going to take a few years’ time, the team would be wasting his prime years instead of dealing him for full value while they can.

He’ll command significant value in a trade, and his value might be at it’s highest after 2018.

Able to play both outfield corners, Peralta would be a fit on most teams in search of outfield help.

He’s a definite fit in Oakland where he’d give Billy Beane a strong corner outfield pairing with Stephen Piscotty that also doubles as affordable and controllable.

Collectively, Athletics left fielders finished third overall in fWAR among all left field groups, but that was perhaps more down to the number of different options deployed than one player.

Mark Canha, Pinder, Nick Martini and Matthew Joyce all saw time there. All four had positive fWARs, and Canha, Pinder and Martini topped the 1.2 fWAR mark, but an upgrade would certainly go a long way in helping Oakland contend again in 2019.

Enter Peralta.

With Joyce a free agent and Canha and Martini effectively a platoon (Canha doesn’t hit righties, Martini doesn’t hit lefties), the current Diamondback would also give the A’s much more roster flexibility. Plus, his bat would add significant depth to an already packed lineup.

There’s a possibility that Peralta could hit sixth, seventh or possibly even eighth in Oakland. That should tell you all you need to know about the A’s run-scoring potential.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Side of the Trade

Given the state of the Arizona Diamondbacks farm system ahead of a potential rebuild, they need both quality and quantity.

They get both in this trade.

Neuse, who was previously a part of the Sean Doolittle/Blake Treinen swap-bonanza, is close to Major League ready after spending 2018 at Triple-A.

His numbers there didn’t set the world on fire there (.295 wOBA, 72 wRC+, .661 OPS), but it was his first taste of action at the level. An improved showing out of the gate next year could net him an MLB call up and some playing time.

That playing time could be hard to come by in the Bay Area, where Matt Chapman more or less made the position his for the next decade with a 6.5 fWAR in 2018 that was fueled by some Platinum Glove-worthy defense and a .369 wOBA.

With Matt Olsen similarly entrenched across the diamond, Neuse is effectively expendable in the same way that Jeimer Candelario was in Chicago prior to him being dealt to Detroit.

Neuse’s closeness to MLB-playing time should make him all the more appealing to Arizona.

Plus, his potential presence in the Majors gives Arizona the option to eventually shop Jake Lamb for even more prospects if the third baseman can get healthy again.

Elsewhere in the trade, the Snakes add two more players close to the Majors in Jorge Mateo and James Naile.

Mateo’s prospect star has fallen a bit since his days in the Yankees’ farm system, but he’s still a notable prospect with the speed and defensive tools necessary to find success in the Majors.

He’s played the outfield some, but his long-term home could come in the middle of the infield. Positions where Arizona is hurting for long-term solutions.

If Jed Lowrie re-signs with the Athletics, the long-term presence of him, Marcus Semien and Franklin Barreto moves Matteo firmly into the “trade chip” category.

Similarly, Naile could be a long-term rotation piece. Teams can never have enough young pitching, and the prospect is just that. Similar to Armenteros in the previous trade, he could work as a starter or long reliever in the Majors in short order.

Rounding out the trade is Pinder, who isn’t a prospect.

He was a useful part-time player for the A’s last year and brings plenty of value with his defensively versatility.

In Arizona the 26-year-old could play multiple positions as a utility player of sorts. The D-backs could look to pawn him off to a contender looking for a bench piece at the deadline, or simply keep him around as a place holder until the next generation of prospects is ready.

Either way, there’s value to be had.

  1. Paul Goldschmidt

Notable 2018 Stats: 5.1 fWAR, .390 woBA, 33 HR, 144 wRC+ in 690 PA
Trade Fits: Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland
Conceivable Trade Proposal: Paul Goldschmidt to Seattle for Kyle Lewis, Sam Tuivailala and Joey Gerber

Paul Goldschmidt once again performed not only as the Arizona Diamondbacks’ best player, but one of the better players in all of baseball.

He logged a 5.1 fWAR en route to notching a .390 wOBA, a 144 wRC+, 33 home runs, a .243 ISO, a 13.0% walk rate and a .922 OPS in 690 plate appearances.

The All-World first baseman has accumulated a 35.6 fWAR since taking over as a full-time regular in 2012 and doesn’t look to be slowing down any time soon.

Still, if Arizona exercises his $14.5 million team option for 2019, per Spotrac, they’ll have just one year remaining on the 31-year-old’s contract.

The deal was decidedly team friendly and one of the better values in the league, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the veteran be paid handsomely on his next deal.

Slugging first baseman aren’t exactly valued as they were in yesteryear when the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder and others garnered huge deals.

But Goldschmidt is worth a significant contractual investment.

He might not get a megadeal like Miggy or Pujols, but teams should be lining up to sign a first baseman who is an offensive force, a positive presence on the base paths (lifetime 22.3 BsR and 11.9 UBR) and can add value as a fielder.

Goldschmidt has the second highest DRS at first base since 2015 with a +38 number. His 2.9 UZR/150 over the same span ranks seventh.

Still, his next deal might be too rich for the Diamondbacks’ blood. Especially if they’re in the midst of a rebuild.

Ergo the trade suggestion.

Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto is obviously familiar with Goldschmidt from his time in Arizona, and he’d be a perfect fit in Seattle.

The Mariners have had trouble finding a solution at first base in recent years.

Since 2016, only Colorado first baseman have a lower fWAR than Dipoto’s collective group of players at first.

Said group has included a smorgasbord of partially-effective solutions like Yonder Alonso, Dae-ho Lee, Danny Valencia, Dan Vogelbach, Adam Lind and Ryon Healy.

Seattle could simply shift Robinson Cano to first base, but the 36-year-old wasn’t the best there in an extremely small sample size in 2018, putting up a -1.8 Def, a -11.9 UZR/150 and a -1 DRS in 88.2 innings.

He could rebound defensively there next year, but the reality is that it might be better for the 36-year-old’s career to stick him at designated hitter full time with some occasional starts back at second base sprinkled in.

That leaves a glaring need at first base for Goldschmidt to step into.

Vogelbach hasn’t really been given an extended look at the position, and even in his limited time hasn’t looked like a long-term solution.

Healy, in a much larger sample size, didn’t exactly lay claim to the position either.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Side of the Trade

First and foremost, Seattle burns its best trade chip in Lewis to get this done.

They need to keep up with the Joneses in Houston and Oakland and adding a 5-win player in Goldschmidt certainly helps them do that.

The outfielder has made top-100 prospect lists in the past and has a high ceiling.

That being said, he struggled in his first go-around at Double-A in 2018 against competition that was on average 1.8 years older than him.

His timeline lines up more with a rebuilding club that can be patient with him as opposed to a win-now contender like Seattle that is in desperate need of playoff baseball.

He could be a franchise cornerstone for years to come in the desert.

Sam Tuivailala and Joey Gerber

Acquiring two relievers isn’t exactly a headline-making trade, but Tuivailala and Gerber could both be long-term cogs in the D-backs bullpen.

The former is already in the Majors. He’s thrown 104 innings for the Cardinals and M’s dating back to 2014 and has a 3.55 ERA and a 4.06 FIP to show for it.

He’s been much better as of late, with a 2.95 ERA and a 3.71 FIP in 79.1 innings since the start of 2017.

Tuivailala is established, is only 26 and comes with four years of club control remaining, per Spotrac.

He could be Arizona’s closer next year if they offload some other pieces.

Rounding out the deal is Gerber, who MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranks as Seattle’s 15th-best prospect (sorry, no coffee joke there).

The right-hander throws a fastball and a slider. The same publication wrote the following about the 21-year-old, who reached Single -A in 2018:

“How well he can locate his pitches ultimately will determine if he reaches his ceiling as a set-up man. Gerber’s strong 6-foot-4 frame and resilient arm make him a durable bullpen option, and he should be one of the first 2018 draftees to reach the big leagues.”

  1. Andrew Chafin

  2. Archie Bradley

Notable 2018 Stats: 2.61 FIP, 1.1 fWAR, 49.1 IP (Chafin) | 3.71 FIP, 9.42 K/9. Also, .225 wOBA against vs LHB
Trade Fits: Just About Every Team
Conceivable Trade Proposal: Andrew Chafin and Archie Bradley to Colorado for Peter Lambert

The one luxury on a rebuilding team, say it with me everyone, is good relief pitching.

So, if the D-backs blow it all up, Chafin and Bradley should be some of the first players to be traded.

Both are effective relievers coming off solid seasons—Chafin particularly so—and both are relatively inexpensive. They’re also controllable.

This trade, involving Lambert, is a bit like the Brad Hand and Adam Cimber for Francisco Mejia blockbuster, but on a smaller scale.

Neither Chafin or Bradley is as good as Hand, and Lambert hasn’t quite reached Mejia’s prospect status.

Still, both Chafin (who as an added bonus is a southpaw) and Bradley could play key roles in a contender’s bullpen.

They’re perfect fits in Colorado, where the Rockies need relief help, but probably aren’t going to splash the cash in free agency to make additions.

Colorado spent heavily last winter on Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw and Wade Davis.

All three where. Well, they didn’t produce at an ideal level.

That prompted the July acquisition of Seunghwan Oh, but even with the ex-Cardinal in tow, they’ll need more bullpen help.

Another left-hander seems like a must for Colorado after McGee and Mike Dunn imploded on the mound last year.

Similarly, Bradley’s arrival would allow Arizona not to spend Adam Ottavino, who is a free agent at the conclusion of the World Series.

Colorado is in win-now mode, especially if Nolan Arenado’s time with the franchise is limited.

Sacrificing Lambert, who’s buried on the organizational, rotation depth chart for relief help makes sense at this point.

In fact, given the success of German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, Antonio Senzatela and Chad Bettis, it almost seems prudent.

Arizona Diaondbacks’ Side of the Trade

Like their division-rival Padres in the Hand deal, Arizona would get a quality prospect in Lambert who’s close to the Majors.

The 2015 second-round pick has impressed in the minors, and although he struggled in his first taste of Triple-A ball in 2018, there are a few things to remember.

One, he’s playing against guys who are on average 5.6 years older than him.

Two, he’s only 21.

Three, he played in the insanely hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Given his past success, a rebound season could very well be on the horizon. And one extended stretch of quality outings at Triple-A could propel him into a MLB rotation, where he could stick for years.

That rotation could be in Arizona, where if they start unloading veterans, the next player on this list could vacate a spot for Lambert.

  1. Zack Greinke

Notable 2018 Stats: 207.2 IP, 3.5 fWAR, 3.71 FIP, 10.8 SwStr%
Trade Fits: Atlanta, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers
Conceivable Trade Proposal: Zack Greinke and $35 million to Atlanta for Luiz Gohara, Alex Jackson and Adam Duvall

What’s this? Zack Greinke ranked below some relievers where trade value is concerned?

The reality is that Greinke would be ranked a whole lot higher on this list if it weren’t for the finer details of his contract.

Per Spotrac, he’s making $31.5 million in 2019, $32 million in 2020 and $32 million in 2021. Additionally, per the same source, each year comes with a $3 million signing bonus.

That’s a lot, even for a pitcher who was close to approaching a 4.0 fWAR last season.

The fact that Greinke is 35 doesn’t help things either, but he’s remained effective since donning an Arizona uniform.

Trading him would do a whole world of good for the Diamondbacks’ financial outlook. They’ll likely have to eat some of his money to get it done, but it’s doable.

Atlanta stands out as a potential trade partner.

Not only does the National League East franchise have a need for another front-line starter to pair with Mike Foltynewicz, but they have the financial flexibility to make it happen.

Past financial commitments to Adrian Gonzalez and Scott Kazmir will come off the books, as will the expiring contracts of Brad Brach, Brandon McCarthy, Nick Markakis, Kurt Suzuki, Anibal Sanchez, Lucas Duda and Rene Rivera.

Getting Arizona to pay down $35 million of Greinke’s remaining $104.5 million for the next three years is key. If that money is spread out evenly over the remaining three years of the veteran’s deal, Atlanta will come away with paying Greinke $23.16 million per year.

That might be a smarter move for Atlanta than dropping that kind of money on someone like free agent Dallas Keuchel.

Zack Greinke in 2018: 207.2 IP, 3.5 fWAR, 3.71 FIP, 3.60 SIERA, 8.62 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9, 10.8% SwStr%, 1.08 WHIP.

Dallas Keuchel in 2018: 204.2 IP, 3.6 fWAR, 3.69 FIP, 4.15 SIERA, 6.73 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, 8.3% SwStr%, 1.31 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Side of the Trade

It’s a win-win for both franchises as Arizona gets three pieces to utilize as early as 2019, while Atlanta gets their front-line starter.

The headliner of the deal is Gohara.

He’s got immense upside but struggled at times in 2018. He’s high-risk, high-reward and Atlanta may feel more comfortable parting with him as opposed to another one of their young, high-upside starters like Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson, (we could be here a while) Touki Toussaint, Kolby Allard, Bryse Wilson or Joey Wentz.

Elsewhere, Arizona snags a potential catching solution in Alex Jackson.

The converted outfielder and former Mariners farmhand made his way to Triple-A in 2018. He could debut in the Majors as soon as next season and could build a bridge to Daulton Varsho and Andy Yerzy, who are both in the lower minors.

Then there’s Duvall.

He didn’t do much in 57 plate appearances for Atlanta (-7 wRC+, .163 wOBA, .019 ISO) after being traded from Cincinnati.

With Lane Adams, Preston Tucker and Charlie Culberson on hand, Atlanta has enough outfield depth to mitigate the loss of Markakis in right field if the veteran departs in free agency.

That makes Duvall expendable.

And that’s all without mentioning the fact that the team may very well sign another corner outfielder as an upgrade over the aforementioned group.

That’d make Duvall even more expendable.

His inclusion in this trade is simple.

Rebuilds can get ugly and bad teams tend to not score a lot of runs.

The former Red’s calling card is his power. He can hit in the middle of Arizona’s lineup to ensue there’s no power outage in the rebuild in the same way there was in Detroit this past season.

If he develops into a trade chip for Arizona, all the better for the Diamondbacks.

  1. Steven Souza Jr.

Notable 2018 Stats: 84 wRC+, .299 wOBA, .149 ISO in 272 plate appearances
Trade Fits: Cleveland, Seattle, Colorado
Conceivable Trade Proposal: TBD

If he had a productive 2018, Souza Jr. would probably have a similar trade market and value to that of David Peralta.

Except he wasn’t productive.

Limited to just 72 games and 272 plate appearances, the outfielder had what was essentially a lost season.

Arizona’s probably best served hanging on to him and seeing his trade value improve. But, if some team—like say Cleveland or the Mariners—offers to pay in prospects what Souza was worth, say, a year ago, the D-backs shouldn’t think twice in pulling the trigger.

  1. Shelby Miller

Notable 2018 Stats: 16 IP, 4.11 SIERA, 19 K, 8 BB, 24 H
Trade Fits: Any team with something resembling a rotation job
Conceivable Trade Proposal: TBD

See the reasoning with Souza Jr., only no team is likely to pay full value for Miller. It’s conceivable, but highly improbable for the outfielder, but not for the pitcher who has yet to consistently resemble the player he was in St. Louis or Atlanta.

After giving up Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair for Miller and Gabe Speier

  1. Yoshihisa Hirano

  2. Nick Ahmed

Notable 2018 Stats: 0.5 fWAR, 3.69 FIP, 22.5 K% in 66.1 IP (Hirano) | 1.7 fWAR, 11.0 Def, 84 wRC+ (Ahmed)
Trade Fits: New York Yankees, among others
Conceivable Trade Proposal: Yoshihisa Hirano and Nick Ahmed to the New York Yankees for Freicer Perez

Hirano, a useful, veteran reliever, and Ahmed, a glove-first shortstop, aren’t exactly the player archetypes you want on a rebuilding club.

Both should be shopped for some kind of return in order to make way for younger players.

There’s a rather obvious fit for the pair in New York.

The Yankees’ bullpen hasn’t become a weakness overnight, but they could lose David Robertson and Zach Britton to free agency this winter.

Bringing in a veteran like Hirano would help make up for some of the loss as well as initially take pressure off of New York’s younger bullpen arms.

Elsewhere, Ahmed can help fill in as a reserve up the middle at both middle-infield spots.

He isn’t exactly light-hitting like many other glove-first players at his position—Ahmed mashed 16 home runs and accounted for a .176 ISO in 564 plate appearances.

Still, his wRC+ (84) and wOBA (.300) are decidedly below league average. What’s more, his 11.0 Def was the 17th-highest among all MLB players.

The Yankees got by with using players with below-average offensive metrics last season, and Ahmed would be a definite upgrade over the group at the plate.

Nick Ahmed in 2018: 564 PA, 84 wRC+, .300 wOBA, .176 ISO, .290 OBP, 16 HR.

Adeiny Hechavarria in 2018 with Yankees: 37 PA, 50 wRC+, .247 wOBA, .167 ISO, .216 OBP, 2 HR.

Ronald Torreyes in 2018 with Yankees: 102 PA, 78 wRC+, .287 wOBA, .090 ISO, .294 OBP, 0 HR.

Neil Walker in 2018 with Yankees: 398 PA, 81 wRC+, .291 wOBA, .135 ISO, .309 OBP, 11 HR.

Tyler Wade in 2018 with Yankees: 70 PA, 29 wRC+, .215 wOBA, .106 ISO, .214 OBP, 1 HR.

*Brandon Drury in 2018 with Yankees: 57 PA, 49 wRC+, .245 wOBA, .098 ISO, .263 OBP, 1 HR.

(*Drury was traded to Toronto midseason in the J.A. Happ trade).

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Side of the Trade

In return, the Diamondbacks would get Freicer Perez.

He’s a way away from the Majors after finishing 2018 at Advanced-A Tampa. Perez was limited to 25 innings in 2018, but is 6’8”, throws in the upper 90s and has a curveball, slider and changeup.

Let me repeat that.

He’s 6’8”, flirts with throwing 100 and has three off-speed pitches.

That should be more than enough for Arizona to part with two players that aren’t essential long-term.

  1. Chris Owings

Notable 2018 Stats: -0.8 fWAR, 51 wRC+ in 309 PA, 8.7 UZR/150, +10 DRS in 448.2 innings in OF
Trade Fits: Every team in need of bench versatility
Conceivable Trade Proposal: Chris Owings to the Kansas City Royals for Brandon Maurer

Owings’ calling card, or rather the area where he provided the most value in 2018, was his glove work.

The versatile fielder turned in strong metrics in the outfield, racking up an 8.7 UZR/150, a -1.3 ARM and a +10 DRS in 448.2 innings. He spent 314 of those 448.2 innings in right field, where he logged a +5 DRS.

What’s more, Owings saw action at second base, shortstop and third base.

He’d bring definite value to a team as a versatile bench piece, but that may not be in Arizona.

Owings is a potential non-tender candidate after finishing 2018 with a 51 wRC+ and a .250 wOBA. Despite setting a career-high with 7.8% walk rate, the utility player struck out a ta 24.3% clip.

He, along with Kansas City’s Brandon Maurer are conceivably expendable this winter.

Swapping the two makes some sense as Arizona could use the bullpen help if they flip Chafin, Bradley and others.

Meanwhile, the Royals need someone to back up Adalberto Mondesi and Whit Merrifield up the middle. Plus, if Merrifield departs via trade, Owings could step in as a stop-gap option at the keystone.

  1. T.J. McFarland

  2. Jarrod Dyson

Notable 2018 Stats: 72 IP, 2.00 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 5.25 K/9, 0.5 fWAR (McFarland) | 237 PA, 0.3 fWAR, 47 wRC+, 1.7 UBR (Dyson)
Trade Fits: Every team in search of left-handed relief help (McFarland) | Every team in search of outfield help (Dyson)
Conceivable Trade Proposal: T.J. McFarland and Jarrod Dyson to Cleveland for Jason Kipnis, George Valera and $4.1 million

Cleveland could really do with unloading Jason Kipnis’ salary.

The second baseman hasn’t looked himself at the plate in the past two seasons, and while he showed better from August onward, removing his salary from the equation would allow resources to be diverted elsewhere.

For a team with a payroll that isn’t up there with the Yankees or Red Sox, that could be key in roster building.

This trade allows the American League Central franchise to shed most of Kipnis’ salary, while adding a left-handed reliever and another outfield option in the process.

McFarland doesn’t miss many bats, but Cleveland has shown a willingness to employ contact-oriented relievers in the past (see Dan Otero). Plus, he’d replace impending free agent Oliver Perez as one of Terry Francona’s primary left-handed relievers out of the bullpen.

In the outfield, Dyson would join a mix that includes Leonys Martin, Greg Allen, Tyler Naquin, Bradley Zimmer, Brandon Barnes and potentially Brandon Guyer.

Dyson didn’t enjoy the best season in his debut campaign in Arizona, but he was limited by injuries.

However, he’s just a year removed from a two-season stretch that saw him put up a cumulative 4.9 fWAR for Kansas City and Seattle.

The outfielder’s wRC+ never eclipsed the 96 mark, and his wOBA stayed below .320.

In other words, if he can bounce back just a bit next season at the plate, his base running and fielding should help him provide value.

Valera is still in Rookie-Ball in the Arizona League, but has plenty of upside at 17. His age makes him expendable for Cleveland in the sense that the organization is all-in on winning now, and Valera isn’t close to contributing to the Major League club any time soon.

That makes him a more likely trade chip than someone like Yu Chang or Bobby Bradley, both of whom could contribute as early as next season.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Side of the Trade

The Diamondbacks should take a page out of the Texas Rangers’ book.

Texas absorbed the contracts of both Cory Gearrin and Austin Jackson from the San Francisco Giants in order to add pitching prospect Jason Bahr.

Jackson was released, but nearly two months later, Gearrin was flipped to the Oakland Athletics for two more prospects.

Arizona should employ a similar strategy with Kipnis.

Granted, he’s a bit more expensive than both Gearrin and Jackson. The second baseman is making $14.5 million in 2019 with a $16.5 million team option for 2020, per Spotrac.

That team option includes a $2.5 million buyout, ergo the cash involved. Cleveland would send the Diamondbacks enough money to cover Kipnis’ buyout as well as pay down a bit of his contract.

Arizona would also be shedding Dyson’s $3.5 million expiring contract (via Spotrac) as well as any financial commitment to McFarland.

The southpaw, according to Spotrac, made $850,000 last season and MLBTradeRumors’ projected arbitration salaries has McFarland making $1.4 million in 2019.

If Kipnis can perform somewhat like the 4+-win player he was in 2013, 2015 and 2016, the Diamondbacks should have no problem finding a taker for him at the trade deadline and adding even more prospects in the process.

At worst, he comes off the books next winter.

Either way, the Arizona Diamondbacks get to add a prospect of Valera’s caliber.

FanGraphs has him as the third-best prospect in the organization’s system, behind only Triston McKenzie and Nolan Jones. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranks him fifth among Cleveland farmhands.

For the Diamondbacks, he’s a better prospect than they would receive for one or both of McFarland or Dyson. Plus, the salary they’re taking on with Kipnis for one year is akin to them signing a veteran stop-gap option to a one-year contract.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but it’s a win-win.

In Conclusion

Are the Arizona Diamondbacks going to make all these exact trades? No.

Are they even going to rebuild? That remains to be seen.

But the D-backs are in dire need of a reset in arguably baseball’s toughest division, a division that’s only going to get more challenging.

Los Angeles isn’t going away any time soon. The Rockies have kept their winning ways up. San Diego looks like a future contender waiting to break out in much the same way Atlanta, Philadelphia and Oakland did last season. The Giants are still hanging around.

A rebuild is needed at this point.

They could go all-in on 2019, but that may simply be just prolonging the process and making the actual rebuild all the more difficult in favor of long-shot odds at even qualifying for the playoffs.

More from Know Hitter:

  1. These 20 teams should pursue Manny Machado in free agency this offseason
  2. The seven best Sonny Gray trade fits for the Yankees ($)
  3. Rangers offseason preview: Why Texas should sign Josh Donaldson, others
  4. Picks for every major MLB award–From MVP to Platinum Glove winners
  5. Angels offseason preview ($)
  6. O’s offseason preview 
  7. Why the Rangers should trade Nomar Mazara this offseason
  8. Marlins offseason preview
  9. The Brewers are still winning the Jonathan Lucroy trade
  10. Reds offseason preview 

More from My Patreon Page:

  1. White Sox offseason preview ($)
  2. Royals offseason preview
  3. The Nationals’ implosion and what’s next for the franchise ($)
  4. Tigers offseason preview
  5. Shane Greene’s struggles not coming at the best time
  6. Blue Jays offseason preview ($)
  7. Twins offseason preview
  8. Next wave of Tigers young talent is first of many ($)

You May Also Like

More From Author

2 comments

King says:

Speaking as a Braves fan, I like your proposed trade between Atlanta and Arizona for Greinke. With the pitching depth the Braves have, I’d hate to see them step out and pay someone a ridiculous amount of cash to front the rotation, and possibly hurt the team’s long term payroll flexibility, when they have all those pitching prospects. Greinke’s not cheap, but he’s good; and with only three years remaining, his contract will be done (huge plus) before Atlanta has to resign Acuna and Albies.

On the flip side, trading Gohara would sting a bit, but you’ve got to give something to get something. It seems like a pretty fair deal, to me.

knowhitter says:

Hi King,
It’ll certainly be interesting to see what Atlanta does this winter.
They’re certainly a team to watch what with the financial flexibility and the prospect stores to get just about any trade done.
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if they were involved with most of the big names on the market. This is obviously all purely speculative mind you, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if they were linked with signing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado or trading for someone like Jacob deGrom.
They could do just about anything this offseason.

Comments are closed.