Texas Rangers Potential Losses:
Free agents: Adrian Beltre, Bartolo Colon, Yovani Gallardo, Drew Hutchison, Matt Moore, Martin Perez, Doug Fister and Tony Barnette
Potential non-tender candidates: Eddie Butler, Austin Bibens-Dirkx
Potential DFA candidates: Carlos Perez, Ryan Rua
Potential trade candidates: Shin-Soo Choo, Evils Andrus, Jose Leclerc
Texas Rangers Potential Additions:
Potential Free Agent/Trade Targets: Marwin Gonzalez, Wilson Ramos, Derek Holland and Jeremy Hellickson
The Texas Rangers are in an unfortunate spot.
Sure, every rebuilding club feels that they’re in an unfortunate spot compared to teams consistently fighting for World Series crowns, but the Rangers situation isn’t the best.
Yes, they have talented prospects in Leody Tavares, Julio Pablo Martinez, Cole Winn and Willie Calhoun, but Calhoun is the only one of those within a year or two (or maybe even three) of reaching the Majors.
Then there’s the Major League level, where Texas is devoid of many long-term solutions outside of Nomar Mazara, Jose Leclerc, Joey Gallo and Ronald Guzman.
It’s just that, well… the Rangers play in the American League West.
The American League West, home to the 2017 World Series champion Houston Astros—who don’t look like slowing down anytime soon.
The American League West, home to the suddenly-relevant-again Oakland Athletics who have a similarly exciting young core complemented by quality veterans.
The American League West, home to the consistently over-achieving Seattle Mariners, a team that’s stayed relevant as a contender while dealing from a farm system that elicits phrases like “barren” and “razor-thin.”
The American League West, home to one of the 10 worst teams in baseball, the Texas Rangers.
It’s a bit harsh, but it’s true.
Unfortunately, in another division, Texas could vault themselves into a contending place with a few big-money signings and a handful of shrewd additions.
If they did that this winter, they still might not have enough to bother even the A’s or M’s, let alone the Astros.
Free Agents
The strange thing is, that Texas probably could have a decent shot at landing a marquee free agent—at least from a monetary standpoint.
Mike Minor, Rougned Odor, Chris Martin and (assuming he stays) Elvis Andrus are the only guaranteed, non-arbitration contracts on their books for next season.
Adrian Beltre’s contract is coming off the books, as are the deals for Colon, Gallardo, Hutchinson and Barnette.
Furthermore, the Rangers can buy out or decline options on a number of players ahead of the 2019 season, per Spotrac.
Matt Moore, Martin Perez, Doug Fister and Robinson Chirinos all have team options, and of the group, Chirinos seems like the most likely of the group to return. The other three struggled mightily last season.
Once those salaries are cleared from the books, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas spend.
Are the Rangers going to sign Bryce Harper, Patrick Corbin and Manny Machado to wealthy contracts in one winter? Probably not.
Could they sign a number of mid-tier free agents to bulk up the team?
That seems more plausible, but it doesn’t make sense in the short-term unless it’s a bevy of one-year commitments considering how far the Rangers are from contending.
Non-tender/DFA Candidates: Eddie Butler, Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Carlos Perez and Ryan Rua
With so many young players in and around the 40-man roster and so many potential free agents, Jon Daniels doesn’t necessarily have to shed a ton of younger players in order to create 40-man roster flexibility.
This means Texas should hang on to players like Carlos Tocci, Yohander Mendez, Zac Curtis and Adrian Sampson despite their initial struggles.
The Rangers purged many of their older pitchers—Cole Hamels, Jesse Chavez, Brandon Mann and Kevin Jepsen—from the roster during the regular season.
With Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, Yovani Gallardo, Tony Barnette, Drew Hutchison and others free agents this winter, that purge could continue as the Rangers fully embrace a youth movement.
Jettisoning Butler and Bibens-Dirkx, who didn’t have the most successful 2018 seasons for the American League West franchise, would make sense.
Especially considering that Texas could find more effective solutions on the fringes free agent market who also double as more attractive trade pieces down the road.
Then there’s Perez, who’s the third catcher on the totem pole behind Chirinos and Jose Trevino.
It’s a different story if Chirinos’ option isn’t exercised and he moves on via free agency. However, if Texas adds another backstop, Perez becomes expendable.
Then there’s Rua.
Texas has Mazara penciled into one outfield slot. Gallo and Calhoun could also see time in the outfield corners as well.
This is all without mentioning Delino DeShields, Tocci, Drew Robinson and Shin-Soo Choo, who could also see the occasional start in the outfield.
That leaves Rua and his 45 wRC+ in 147 MLB plate appearances last year on the outside looking in.. It didn’t help that the first baseman had an up-and-down season offensively in a brief, 83-plate appearance stint in the Pacific Coast League (103 wRC+, .343 wOBA).
Rua did miss time in 2018 due to a stint on the disabled list, but Texas simply has too many options at his position.
Potential trade candidates: Shin-Soo Choo, Evils Andrus, Jose Leclerc
The list of Texas’ trade candidates should read, in terms of tradability, as Leclerc, Choo and then Andrus.
Leclerc also holds the distinction in terms of having the most trade value.
He has four years of team control remaining, per Spotrac, and was good for Texas in 2018.
Like fourth-highest reliever fWAR in-the-league-behind-only-Edwin-Diaz-Blake-Treinen-and-Josh-Hader good.
Those were the only three relief pitchers with a higher fWAR than Leclerc’s 2.4 fWAR.
That’s it.
Choo and Andrus are different animals entirely in terms of tradability and trade value.
Both do things well. The former is an above-average run producer at the plate and the latter is a quality shortstop.
However, Choo doesn’t play the field much and most all contenders have established options at Andrus’ positions.
Both also have hefty contracts, which doesn’t exactly help things.
Potential Free Agent/Trade Targets: Josh Donaldson, Marwin Gonzalez, Wilson Ramos, Derek Holland and Jeremy Hellickson
As with most rebuilding clubs, the Rangers likely aren’t going to shell out prospects or trade assets to acquire key players.
That likely limits them more to free agency additions in terms of impact players.
If Texas wants to expedite things and be more competitive in 2019, there are a number of routes they could go.
Admittedly, Josh Donaldson is the most speculative fit. However, if he’s looking to rebuild his value on a pillow contract, Texas would be an intriguing option.
This is all obviously dependent on Adrian Beltre not returning, but a healthy Donaldson in a Rangers uniform could produce monster numbers on a one-year deal.
Then there’s Gonzalez, who would be a fit regardless of whether the club re-signs Beltre or adds a third baseman (Donaldson or otherwise).
The current Astro can play a similar role with the division-rival Rangers as he does in Houston by playing multiple positions and providing some pop.
Gonzalez can split time between third base and left field, allowing for more defensive flexibility and less pressure on Joey Gallo and Willi Calhoun defensively. He can also share defensive reps with Jurickson Profar at shortstop should Andrus depart in the winter.
It doesn’t hurt that Gonzalez would also lengthen a lineup that also includes some combination of Gallo, Calhoun, Mazara, Choo and Guzman.
Rounding out the (potential) position player additions is Ramos.
Chirinos has been serviceable behind the dish for the Rangers and Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been useable when deployed as a backstop, but catcher is the one obvious position where the Rangers could use both a short and long-term upgrade.
Enter Ramos, who in 2019 with the Rays and Phillies more accurately resembled the catcher he was in his last year in Washington (3.4 fWAR, 523 PA, .361 wOBA, 123 wRC+) than the player he was in 2017 (0.5 fWAR, 224 PA, .307 wOBA, 92 wRC+).
Obviously, Ramos was recovering from an injury in 2017, but he’s fully back to his old self after turning in a 2.4 fWAR, 15 home runs, a .358 on-base percentage, a .361 wOBA and a 131 wRC+ in 2018.
That kind of production behind the plate would do wonders for Texas’ lineup.
Derek Holland and Jeremy Hellickson
In addition to position player hep, the Rangers need rotation reinforcements.
That would be the case even if some or all of Martin Perez, Doug Fister, Yovani Gallardo, Bartolo Colon, Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Drew Hutchison, Eddie Butler and Matt Moore all stuck around.
More productive options are needed.
And sure, you can say that Texas is rebuilding, why do they need better starting pitchers? None of the aforementioned group are clearly long-term fits.
But having quality starting pitching, regardless of a team’s record, helps save the bullpen. That can be key for team’s in the lower half of the league’s standings as their collective relief corps are generally peppered with young pitchers.
Saving said pitchers from overuse and fatigue should be paramount.
What’s more, having quality starting pitching as a losing team can lead to prospects down the road.
Take the Detroit Tigers, who signed Mike Fiers as a free agent last winter.
Fiers, who has another year of arbitration eligibility remaining, soaked up 119 innings over 21 starts and accumulated a 1.2 fWAR, a 3.48 ERA and a 4.66 FIP. He was flipped to the Oakland A’s for two prospects in Logan Shore and Nolan Blackwood that FanGraphs ranked among the Athletics 23 best prospects prior to the 2018 season.
Derek Holland and Jeremy Hellickson aren’t exactly Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel, but both were serviceable last season and would be significant upgrades over Texas’ previous crowd of starters.
They also likely won’t command significant long-term commitments and could be traded at a later date.
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