The Tampa Bay Rays traded the team’s face of the franchise last winter. They pulled off a similar maneuver later in July. Yet, the organization’s trades in 2018 have set up a team potentially capable of toppling the Red Sox and Yankees.
You saw what the Tampa Bay Rays did.
With a team coming off a 80-82 season in 2017, Tampa Bay started to shake things up in the offseason.
No move was worthier of the term “shakeup” than the decision to trade face of the franchise Evan Longoria to the San Francisco Giants.
Tampa Bay got Denard Span’s expiring contract, MLB-ready infielder (and well-regarded prospect) Christian Arroyo as well as even more prospects to stuff their proverbial coffers of a minor league system.
But that was about it for Tampa Bay in the offseason save for some very Rays moves. They let a bunch of relatively expensive veterans like Logan Morrison, Alex Cobb and Steve Cishek walk via free agency.
The Rays also offloaded a veteran reliever in Brad Boxberger and added two younger players in Joey Wendle and Ryan Schimpf in low-key trades.
Then February hit, and Spring Training along with it.
What followed was a season of trades that can only be described as a masterclass.
The Tampa Bay Rays didn’t make the playoffs in 2018, but they made it about as close as you can without qualifying for the postseason. They were arguably baseball’s biggest winners in 2018 thanks to some transactions that laid the groundwork for a future juggernaut.
(All salary information via Spotrac.)
(Additionally, based on Know Hitter’s analysis of salary for all these players based on service time and salary information from Spotrac, our analysis and math showed the following.)
February Trades
(Italicized names indicate prospects.)
(* denotes a rental player who could be a free agent this winter)
Incoming players: C.J. Cron, Jermaine Palacios, Nick Solak, Anthony Banda, Sam McWilliams, Colin Poche, Tristan Gray and Daniel Hudson*
Outgoing players: Jake Odorizzi, Luis Rengifo, Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza Jr.
Net 2018 fWAR of players traded and acquired: -2.7
Net 2018 salary difference: +$9.4738 million
MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects acquired: Three
Most teams are active in February and March. It’s Spring Training after all. But those kinds of moves are generally reserved for players on the fringes of the roster being sent elsewhere or cut all together.
The Rays traded three key players from their 2017 iteration in Odorizzi, Dickerson and Souza Jr, largely receiving prospects in return.
And while the trades could have been viewed through the lens of saving money—which let’s be clear, they did and that plays a part here—it’s worth noting that three of the prospects acquired are among Tampa Bay’s best 30 prospects according to MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline. The group includes Solak (11th), Banda (14th) and Poche (23rd).
Throw in Cron and his 2.1 2018 fWAR, and it’s not a bad day, or month, at the office for a cost-conscious organization.
Taking the respective salaries of Cron, Odorizzi, Banda, Dickerson, Souza Jr. and Hudson (who Tampa Bay later released) into account—as well as the fact that the Pirates reportedly sent $1 million to the Rays in the Dickerson trade per a tweet from The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel— it saved the Rays about $9.4738 million.
https://twitter.com/RobBiertempfel/status/966753714689265664
And while the loss initial loss of Dickerson and Souza Jr. initially depleted Tampa Bay’s outfield depth in the Majors, they’d more than make up for it in the coming months.
What’s more, the increasingly-expensive Odorizzi’s departure paved the way for younger hurlers like Banda, Yonny Chirinos, Jake Faria and Ryan Yarbrough to take up more prominent roles alongside Archer and Blake Snell.
May/June Trades
Incoming players: Andrew Moore, Tommy Romero, Wilmer Font and Ji-man Choi
Outgoing players: Alex Colome, Denard Span*, Peter Bayer and Brad Miller
Net 2018 fWAR of players traded and acquired: -0.6
Net 2018 salary difference: +$4.347 million
MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects acquired: None
It should be noted that with these in-season trades with players like Colome, Span and others, that Tampa Bay didn’t get out of paying their entire salaries for the year. The Rays had obviously paid them up until the point that each player was traded. Still, the sheer difference in incoming and outgoing salaries is staggering. Especially for a team that operates like Tampa Bay does.
Now back to scheduled programming…
Save for unloading Schimpf to Atlanta, April was a largely quiet month transaction-wise for the Rays. They started to get a bit more active in May and June.
Then the Rays started to get busy.
The Colome/Span will rightfully draw the headlines, but the move to bring in Font could have a farther-reaching impact.
Both trades were key in their own way, however.
The first trade saved Tampa Bay some serious cash.
According to an Associated Press story that ran in USA Today, the Rays sent the Mariners $4.75 million as part of the transaction.
All told, with Span and Colome heading out the door, plus the addition of Font, Tampa Bay came away with $4.3 million saved.
What’s more, Tampa Bay seemingly grabbed a long-term replacement for Colome by grabbing Font from the A’s in a minor trade for Bayer.
Font not only was a better fit for the Rays’ “opener” strategy, but he also worked to a 0.4 fWAR, a 1.67 ERA, a 3.98 FIP and a 90.9% strand rate in 27 innings before heading to the disabled list.
He made $545,000 in 2018 and still has five years of team control left. The reliever won’t be arbitration eligible until after the 2020 season.
Colome, meanwhile, will very likely earn raises via arbitration on his 2018 $5.3 million salary this offseason and next prior to becoming a free agent.
Those weren’t the only deals Tampa Bay got done, though.
The Rays completed a swap with Milwaukee, sending the versatile Brad Miller to the Brew Crew for first baseman Ji-man Choi.
Cash was also involved in the trade, which according to an ESPN.com story saw Tampa fork over $2.2 million ($2,209,677 to be exact) to Milwaukee. Miller made $4.5 million in 2018, so the money helped cover most of the player’s contract.
Still, all told Tampa Bay came out in the green where the deal was concerned.
Choi was worth a 1.0 fWAR as a part-time slugger for the Rays, while Miller had accumulated just a 0.2 metric prior to the deal.
July/August Trades
Incoming players: Brian Shaffer, Michael Perez, Jalen Beeks, Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, Shane Baz, Tommy Pham and Matt Seelinger
Outgoing players: Matt Andriese, Nathan Eovaldi*, Jonny Venters*, Chris Archer, Genesis Cabrera, Roel Ramirez, Justin Williams, Wilson Ramos* and Adeiny Hechavarria*
Net 2018 fWAR of players traded and acquired: -2.3
Net 2018 salary difference: +$7.947 million
MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects acquired: One
While the fact that Tampa Bay only acquired one top 30 prospect (Baz) in a series of trades that saw six established contributors depart may seem like a low number, the Rays’ July/August trade haul was extremely impressive.
Moving excess relievers like Andriese and Venters not only allowed more opportunity for arms like Adam Kolarek, Hunter Wood and Austin Pruitt to pitch with more regularity down the stretch, but also allowed the Rays to acquire a key catching piece in Michael Perez.
With Nick Ciuffo yet to establish himself at the Major League level and veterans Jesus Sucre and Adam Moore handling the bulk of the catching duties, Tampa Bay didn’t have a long-term answer at the position.
Enter Perez, who could very well be the starter in 2019 after hitting .284 with a .302 on-base percentage, a .298 wOBA and an 82 wRC+ in 80 plate appearances down the stretch in his first taste of Major League action.
If the former Arizona farmhand—who had a .342 on-base percentage, a .759 OPS and a 100 wRC+ in Triple-A in 2018—can show even a modicum of improvement he’ll give the Rays a solution at catcher considering that all MLB catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, just 12 eclipsed the 100 wRC+ mark. Only eight had an OPS over .750.
Receiving full value & buying low
With the respective Archer and Pham trades, the Rays expertly pulled off two of baseball’s most common trade architypes.
In the Archer move, saying Tampa Bay extracted top value would be an understatement.
The only established Major League player in the trade, Tyler Glasnow, is still only 25 and a few years from holding elite prospect status. He started to figure things out in the Rays’ rotation in the second half.
In that span, the starter soaked up 55.2 innings, struck out 10.35 batters per nine frames while pitching to a 0.5 fWAR, a 4.38 FIP and a 3.52 SIERA. He also ranked 25th among all MLB starters with at least 50 second-half innings with a 12.0 swinging strike percentage.
He’s controllable through 2022 and seems like a surefire bet to replace the man he was traded for, Archer, alongside Blake Snell atop Tampa Bay’s rotation.
Baz, who finished 2018 as Tampa Bay’s sixth-best prospect and was the 76th-best prospect in baseball last year (both per MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline) could eventually join them. He’s a ways off, currently pitching in the Appalachian League, but the 2017 first-rounder has undeniable upside.
Rounding out the Archer trade was Austin Meadows.
One of baseball’s most promising young outfielders, Meadows ranked 17th on the same 2017 list that Baz finished 76th on (from MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline) at the time ranking ahead of the likes of Hunter Greene, Luis Robert and Forrest Whitley.
Meadows’ production in 2018 did nothing to diminish opinions of his future value, putting up the following stat line in 191 plate appearances split between the Pirates and Rays:
110 wRC+, .332 wOBA, .786 OPS, .174 ISO, 6 HR, 5 SB, 5.2 BB%, 20.9 K%.
He’ll likely step into a significant role in the outfield grass alongside Kevin Kiermaier, Mallex Smith and fellow 2018 trade deadline acquisition Tommy Pham.
Speaking of Pham, the Rays did really well to buy low on the outfielder.
They certainly didn’t get him for nothing. Surrendering Justin Williams, Genesis Cabrera and Roel Ramirez is hardly a cheap price to pay, but it seems the gamble to acquire a player a year removed from a 6.1 fWAR season seems to be paying off.
Tommy Pham in 2017 with the Cardinals: 530 PA, 6.1 fWAR, 148 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .411 OBP, .306 avg, .214 ISO, 13.4 BB%, 22.1 K%, 23 HR, 25 SB, 5.3 BsR.
Tommy Pham in 2018 with the Cardinals: 396 PA, 1.5 fWAR, 101 wRC+, .320 wOBA, .331 OBP, .248 avg, .151 ISO, 10.6 BB%, 24.5 K%, 14 HR, 10 SB, 1.5 BsR.
Tommy Pham in 2018 with the Rays: 174 PA, 2.5 fWAR, 191 wRC+, .447 wOBA, .448 OBP, .343 avg, .280 ISO, 14.4 BB%, 24.7 K%, 5 SB, 0.7 BsR.
Pham already looks more like the player he was in 2017 then the one who struggled mightily out of the gate with the Cards this past year.
He might not turn in a 191 wRC+ over the course of a season, but he already looks like a steal for the Rays, who have him under team control via arbitration for the next three years.
With the ex-Cardinal alongside Meadows, Kiermaier and Smith, the Rays have one of MLB’s most dynamic outfield groupings both at the plate and in the field.
Tampa Bay essentially replaced what would have been their non-Kiermaier and Smith outfield grouping at the start of 2018 (Span, Souza Jr., Dickerson) with a younger and more dynamic pairing (Pham and Meadows).
That lack of outfield depth from earlier in the season? Yeah, the Rays made up for it.
Other Dealings
Among the organization’s other July and August dealings were to move on from Hechavarria, which not only netted the organization a prospect in Seelinger, but also saved money—and—more importantly cleared the way for Willy Adames to eat up the lion’s share of starts at shortstop.
Similarly, flipping Eovaldi for Beeks gives the organization a long-term rotation piece as opposed to a rental.
Below is what Tampa Bay got from both Eovaldi and Beeks
Nathan Eovaldi in 2018 for Tampa Bay: 57 IP, 23.7 K%, 3.6 BB%, 4.26 ERA, 4.28 FIP.
Jalen Beeks in 2018 for Tampa Bay: 44.1 IP, 19.6 K%, 10.6 BB%, 4.47 ERA, 4.45 FIP.
Granted, Eovaldi was better with missing bats and limiting walks, but 2018 was Beeks’ first taste of Major League action, and he was markedly better following his Rays debut that saw the Orioles tee off on him for 10 hits, eight earned runs and three walks in 3.1 innings.
Excluding that start, Beeks was much better in a Tampa Bay uniform:
41 IP, 21.4 K%, 10.1 BB%, 3.07 ERA, 4.38 FIP.
It’s also worth noting that Beeks could continue to improve next year. He actually had a higher swinging strike percentage (11.5% to 10.7%) than Eovaldi last year—albeit in a smaller sample size.
But perhaps the most significant part of all this is that not only did the Rays save money on the swap, but Eovaldi is a free agent this winter.
You could make a case for him being the top starter on the market behind Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel, and he might be a better value addition given that he won’t likely command a contract on part with either Corbin or Keuchel.
Still, Eovaldi’s next contract will be nowhere near as cheap as it was in 2018 at just $2 million. Instead of shelling out for a new contract for the ex-Yankee, the Rays will instead fill the void he left with Beeks, who only just made his MLB debut and is years away from even arbitration eligibility.
In Conclusion
One of the more under-the-radar aspects of all of Tampa Bay’s dealings was the fact that they shed so many rental players and picked up decent value in return.
Unless you’re moving Manny Machado, teams likely aren’t paying too much for rentals in trades.
Finding trade partners for players like Ramos, Hechavarria, Eovaldi and Venters was a definite win considering the group may have been too expensive for Tampa Bay to retain this winter.
In their stead, Tampa Bay acquired prospects, one of whom (Beeks) already looks like a useful Major League piece.
Not a bad return.
And yes, the Rays traded players who weren’t rentals like Archer, Souza Jr, Dickerson and others with more years of team control remaining, but they also almost always acquired multiple prospects in return. Prospects with the chance to stick or make an impact in the Majors.
Those prospects, as well as younger, controllable players like Meadows, Pham, Beeks, Perez and others should keep the Tampa Bay Rays in contention long past when Archer, Souza Jr and the rest are free agents.
And oh yeah, the Rays won 90 games in 2018!
They’re good now with the aforementioned, young MLB players joining a core that also consists of Snell, Adames, Wendle, Kiermaier, Smith, Matt Duffy, Ryan Yarbrough and eventually Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon.
What’s more, Tampa Bay was actually better, or rather much better after trading away Archer and company.
As of August 6, when Hechavarria was dealt to Pittsburgh, the Rays were at an even 56-56.
They finished 90-72.
That’s a 34-16 record down the stretch. Tampa Bay’s run differential over the same stretch? +72.
For a team who didn’t make the playoffs, it was as much of a banner year as a team can have in that regard.
And this is all without mentioning that both Matthew Liberatore and Shane McClanahan fell to Tampa Bay in the first round of the 2018 draft.
The Tampa Bay Rays aren’t going anywhere, in fact, they seem poised to upset the Red Sox and Yankees apple cart atop the American League East in the near future.
The Rays are coming and the rest of baseball should take notice. They’ve got a potential juggernaut in the making thanks to a shrewd front office and so much young talent.
Look out baseball world.
Tampa Bay Rays Net 2018 salary difference/savings: +$21.9328 million*
Net 2018 fWAR of players traded and acquired: -6.3
MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects acquired: Four**
(* On an additional salary related note, Tampa Bay will also bid adieu to Carlos Gomez’ $4.4 million salary and Sergio Romo’s $2.5 million salary. Both are free agents this winter. The Rays currently have just one player not in pre-arbitration or in the arbitration process—Kiermaier.)
(** Excludes recently-graduated players like Meadows, Beeks and possibly Perez, who almost certainly would have ranked if still in the minors.)
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