Cincinnati Reds potential losses:
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Free agents: Matt Harvey
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Potential non-tender candidates: Gabriel Guerrero and Brandon Dixon
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Potential DFA candidates: Austin Brice, Blake Trahan and Aristides Aquino
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Potential trade candidates: Billy Hamilton, Scooter Gennett, Curt Casali, David Hernandez, Jared Hughes and Raisel Iglesias
Cincinnati Reds potential additions
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Potential Free Agent/Trade Targets: Matt Moore, Jamie Garcia, Adeiny Hechavarria and Jim Johnson
Bit by bit, the Cincinnati Reds are starting to get there.
No, the Reds rebuild didn’t cross the finish line in 2018 like the rebuilds in Oakland, Atlanta, Milwaukee and Philadelphia.
No, the Reds rebuild might not cross the finish line next year, but the Reds are close.
Eugenio Suarez is a bona fide MVP candidate and walking 5-fWAR player. Joey Votto is still really, really good. Tucker Barnhart is an above-average catcher locked up long-term. Jose Pereza was close to a 3.0 fWAR player in 2018 and Luis Castillo, Anthony DeSclafani and Tyler Mahle look like rotation pieces. Plus, Raisel Iglesias is still around.
(Fun fact, Cincinnati acquired Suarez for a year of Alfredo Simon, then re-signed Simon. Not that they necessarily needed to, but it’s clear they won the trade in the most lopsided of fashions.)
The Reds definitely have sturdy foundational blocks to build on, and infielder Nick Senzel is likely to join them next season in the Majors.
Once the likes of Hunter Greene, Taylor Trammel, Jonathan India and others are ready for the bright lights in the Majors, Cincinnati should have the requisite fire power to contend again.
However, that won’t be 2019.
With 2020 or 2021 looking like a much more realistic goal considering many of the Reds’ top prospects—Greene, Trammel and India included—have yet to reach Double-A, Cincinnati may very well spend 2019 following the same script as other rebuilding clubs.
It would be a slightly different story if the Reds were, say, playing in the American League Central. But with all four other National League Central teams looking like playoff contenders again next year, the Reds should look to sell of more pieces that won’t be around when Greene and co. reach the Majors.
That means adding more players like Dylan Floro, who Cincinnati signed in the offseason before flipping him along with Zach Neal and international bonus slot money to the Dodgers for a pair of prospects.
Finding more diamonds in the rough and then selling high on them should be the M.O. for the Reds front office in 2019.
Potential non-tender and DFA candidates: Gabriel Guerrero, Brandon Dixon, Austin Brice, Blake Trahan and Aristides Aquino
The Reds are in a similar boat to the Toronto Blue Jays in that they already have a significant amount of young talent already on the roster. While the bulk of the Reds’ players have yet to establish themselves at the Major League level, many warrant second looks in 2019.
Guerrero, Dixon, Brice, Trahan and Aquino are all certainly candidates to return, but they’re buried at their respective portions of the depth chart. Moving on from the group could open up the roster flexibility necessary for Cincinnati to protect prospects from the Rule 5 draft and add future pieces.
Trade Candidates: Curt Casali, Billy Hamilton, Scooter Gennett, David Hernandez, Jared Hughes and Raisel Iglesias
You can make the case that the Reds should hang on to Curt Casali after he provided a .347 wOBA, a 115 wRC+, a .355 OBP and a 0.9 fWAR in 156 plate appearances after joining from the Rays mid-season and considering he’s controllable for three more years via arbitration (according to Spotrac). However, Cincy already has Tucker Barnhart tied down for the foreseeable future and catcher is a notoriously thin position around the league.
If some backstop-needy team like Boston, Washington or Anaheim calls offering a halfway-decent prospect for a player the Reds acquired for cash in late May, they shouldn’t think twice about pulling the trigger.
Elsewhere, Hamilton, Gennett and Hernandez should be among some of the more interesting rental options teams could pursue.
Hughes could also be a rental. However, he comes with a $3 million club option for 2020, per Spotrac.
All four aren’t likely long-term pieces in the Queen City, so moving them for a return now makes sense as opposed to seeing another Matt Harvey situation play out where the Reds potentially lose a decent trade chip to free agency for nothing.
Rounding out the list is Iglesias.
Unlike the others, he may actually be a long-term piece for the Reds.
When his value is at its peak, Iglesias could bring back the kind of haul that could take Cincinnati’s rebuild to another level.
However, his value isn’t at its peak.
Unless some team blows the Reds out of the water with an offer, the closer seems more likely to be traded in July if he’s moved.
Potential Free Agent/Trade Targets: Matt Moore, Jamie Garcia, Adeiny Hechavarria and Jim Johnson
Much of the organization’s free agent activity could depend on who they trade and who they keep.
Hechavarria and Johnson could be cost efficient, bounce-back candidates to replace Gennett and either Hernandez or Hughes.
They’re not the splashiest acquisitions, but that’s not what the Reds need this winter. Maybe next winter or the one after perhaps, but not this year.
Right now, the Cincinnati Reds need stop-gap veterans they can turn into more prospects down the road.
Other pieces in our Know Hitter’s MLB Offseason Preview series
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If you like articles w/ nearly 2,000 words, this is for youhttps://t.co/TbsA5T3S5j— Know Hitter (@knowhitter272) October 1, 2018
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— Know Hitter (@knowhitter272) October 2, 2018
