The 2016 trade that sent Jonathan Lucroy from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Texas Rangers eventually helped Milwaukee add two key pieces of the team’s current nucleus.
In hindsight, the Milwaukee Brewers sold high on Jonathan Lucroy.
Lucroy has been a quality player for years, running off fWARs of 3.5, 3.4 and 6.2 from 2012 to 2014. However, he slumped to a 1.2 fWAR in 2015.
It wasn’t just the fWAR either.
Partly limited by a broken toe that caused him to miss significant time, Lucroy’s offensive production took a dip.
Jonathan Lucroy’s four-year production from 2012 to 2015 with the Milwaukee Brewers
2012: 3.5 fWAR, 346 PA, .378 wOBA, 135 wRC+, .368 OBP, .193 ISO, 12 HR, 6.4 BB%, 12.7 K%
2013: 3.4 fWAR, 580 PA, .345 wOBA, 116 wRC+, .340 OBP, .175 ISO, 18 HR, 7.9 BB%, 11.9 K%
2014: 6.2 fWAR, 655 PA, .368 wOBA, 133 wRC+, .373 OBP, .164 ISO, 13 HR, 10.1 BB%, 10.8 K%.
2015: 1.2 fWAR, 415 PA, .313 wOBA, 95 wRC+, .326 OBP, .127 ISO, 7 HR, 8.7 BB%, 10.6 K%.
It is worth noting that Lucroy’s defense has never really faltered on a similar level. His Def, or defensive runs above average, has never dipped below 5.6 since 2012 and has finished at 8.0 or higher in six of the last seven seasons.
Still, the offense cratered, and cratered significantly.
Then the 2016 season came along.
2016
Lucroy rebounded, and in a big way too.
The backstop raced out to a 3.0 fWAR in only 95 games (376 PA) for a Brewers team that would eventually finish 73-89 and a sizeable 30.5 games back of the Cubs in the National League Central.
Lucroy’s 2016’ statistical output resembled something similar to his three-year run from 2012 to 2014:
Jonathan Lucroy in 2015 with Milwaukee: 3.0 fWAR, 376 PA, .357 wOBA, 120 wRC+, .359 OBP, .183 ISO, 13 HR, 8.8 BB%, 18.6 K%.
The Brewers sold at the deadline, flipping their long-time catcher to the Texas Rangers in what in hindsight was a sell-high trade.
Lucroy went to Texas with Jeremy Jeffress for a haul that included pitcher Luis Ortiz and outfielders Lewis Brinson and Ryan Cordell.
Brinson was the definite headliner in the deal, and for a while he looked like what would be a stacked future outfield in Milwaukee alongside Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, Brett Phillips, Corey Ray and Domingo Santana.
The Brewers would eventually get their stacked outfield, just not with Brinson as part of it.
The former top prospect was moved yet again as a centerpiece to Miami along with fellow prospects Monte Harrison (outfielder), Isan Diaz (infielder) and Jordan Yamamoto (pitcher).
The return? One Christian Yelich.
Yelich had a collective 10.0 fWAR the past two years with Miami and his having his best offensive season of his career in 2018.
The outfielder has already notched a career-high 5.6 fWAR and has also registered personal bests in wRC+ (149), wOBA (.398), ISO (.241), slugging percentage (.554), on-base percentage (.383), batting average (.314), OPS (.937) and home runs (29).
Alongside fellow offseason addition Lorenzo Cain, Yelich has given Milwaukee two legitimate MVP candidates as the regular season winds down.
Yelich has helped the Brewers outfield go from 16th in fWAR in 2017 to 2nd among MLB outfield groups this season. Only the Red Sox outfield ranks better.
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The ex-Marlin hasn’t been the Brew Crew’s only notable addition in the past year.
Milwaukee was one of baseball’s most active buyers at the July and August trade deadlines. One of the key pieces brought in by David Stearns and company was second baseman Jonathan Schoop.
Schoop’s initial production in his first go-around with the Brewers hasn’t been ideal, with a -0.2 fWAR, a .248 on-base percentage, a 56 wRC+ and a .258 wOBA.
Still, he’s got a track record of being a productive offensive threat from his last few years in Baltimore and helped fill a need at a position that has been—at best—a glaring black hole for the Brewers in the last three years.
Since the start of 2016, Milwaukee Brewers second baseman have the following rankings:
(They come up particularly short in the power department, an area Milwaukee seems to value highly.)
fWAR: 28th
wRC+: 26th
Slugging%: 23rd
wOBA: 22nd
ISO: 20th
HR: 16th
Enter Schoop, who in the same time period has the following rankings among individual second baseman:
fWAR: 16th
wRC+: 18th
Slugging%: 7th
wOBA: 19th
ISO: 5th
HR: 3rd
In fact, prior to acquiring Schoop, Milwaukee’s second baseman finished tied for 24th in wRC+ (78), 25th in wOBA (.285) and OPS and 26th in OBP (.294).
Alongside Travis Shaw, Schoop has manned the keystone for the Brewers since arriving from the O’s in a package headlined by another member of that fateful Jonathan Lucroy trade in Luis Ortiz.
His production has somewhat been impacted by a .250 BABIP that is well below his career .296 BABIP, as well as the league average.
He’s also been particularly effective as of late.
Boston Red Sox: Dave Dombrowski has been successful with most of his Red Sox trades. Most of them.
From August 20 to September 11, Schoop turned in an .826 OPS to go along with a .345 wOBA, a 114 wRC+ and a .25 ISO.
That’s a high bar for the infielder to maintain as the season goes on, but it’s worth toing he had a similar statistical output in his best offensive season in 2017 (.841 OPS, .355 wOBA, 121 wRC+ and a .211 ISO).
At worst, he’s coming out of his season-long slump and should be relatively better the rest of the way. At best, he’s discovered his old form and will be a key player for Milwaukee.
Either way, he’ll provide added length and depth to an already potent lineup come October.
Whether the Brewers are able to chase down the Cubs for the division title or makes it into the postseason as a Wild Card team, Schoop will have a part to play.
Jeremy Jeffress
This discussion of the Lucroy trade paying dividends is all without mentioning Jeremy Jeffress’ return to Milwaukee.
The reliever wasn’t acquired for Lucroy, he was in fact sent to Texas with the backstop.
However, since returning for his third tour of duty with the Brewers via a trade for minor league reliever Tayler Scott, Jeffress has been a vital bullpen piece.
He’s been particularly dominant in 2018, earning All-Star honors while notching a career high (over the course of a full season) 10.3 punch outs per nine frames.
A 1.39 ERA and a 2.86 FIP aren’t too shabby either.
He may not have returned to Milwaukee in the Lucroy trade, but it’s worth pointing out how effective he’s been.
In Conclusion
Lucroy has gone on to play for two other franchises (the Colorado Rockies and Oakland Atheltics) since leaving the organization that drafted him via a trade with the Rangers. He’s currently helping push the A’s toward a return to the playoffs, but the 2016 trade that sent him to Texas is still paying massive dividends for the Brewers.
