Dave Dombrowski has enjoyed a largely successful stint with the Boston Red Sox, making plenty of successful trades. There’s one deal, though, that he’ll probably want back.
Boston Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has a history of mortgaging his farm systems for Major League upgrades.
He did this consistently in Detroit during his time with the Tigers and has continued the trend in Boston.
Those kinds of trades generally worked out in the Motor City, with Miguel Cabrera, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Jhonny Peralta, Ian Kinsler, Anibal Sanchez and Austin Jackson coming over in deals that amounted to highway robbery.
However, there were significant swings and misses as well. Dombrowski previously shipped out Corey Knebel in a deal for Joakim Soria and flipped Eugenio Suarez in a larger deal for a year of Alfredo Simon.
He also sent out Devon Travis to acquire Anthony Gose and dealt Robbie Ray to Arizona.
Overall, however, Dombrowski’s trade record in Detroit is generally in the green. You get that kind of distinction when you successfully trade for a future Hall of Famer without giving up too much on two separate occasions.
His highway robbery-like transactions also became somewhat commonplace as many of the top prospects that Dombrowski moved either failed to pan out (Chance Ruffin) or to live up to expectations (Jacob Turner, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller).
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Since departing Detroit and moving to Boston in late 2015, Dombrowski has somewhat continued his trend of fleecing opposing front offices.
The decision to trade Wade Miley pre-implosion to Seattle with Jonathan Aro for Carson Smith and Roenis Elias stands out as one of those.
However, Dombrowski has also bet big with prominent prospect talent and come out better on the other side.
Dealing Michael Kopech and Yoan Moncada in the Chris Sale blockbuster was one of those instances. To a lesser degree, the Craig Kimbrel transaction that saw Boston relinquish Manuel Margot and Logan Allen was yet another one of those instances.
Sale leads all starting pitchers in fWAR (13.8) since donning a Boston uniform in 2017, while Kimbrel is tied for fifth among relief pitchers in fWAR (5.7) since he joined the Sox’ bullpen prior to 2016.
Dombrowski has also managed to deal from the depths of his farm system to acquire complimentary MLB pieces in deals that seemed to involve more quantity than quality.
These deals have helped spruce up Boston’s roster ahead of postseason play. And although the Sox haven’t been able to capture the World Series trophy yet under the ex-Tigers president and general manger, complimentary additions like Eduardo Nunez, Addison Reed, Kinsler, Brad Ziegler, Rajai Davis certainly haven’t hurt.
While the vast majority of Dombrowski’s moves have benefit the Red Sox—Nunez and Kinsler have helped fill in for Dustin Pedroia, Reed and Ziegler helped the bullpen and Davis was a useful bench piece—not all of the trades have been successful.
Ok, there’s really only been one that has blown up in the Red Sox faces since late 2015.
Hindsight is obviously 20-20, but the Tyler Thornburg swap is probably one Boston would like to have back.
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Seeking to once again bolster his team’s bullpen, Dave Dombrowski shipped Travis Shaw and prospects Mauricio Dubon and Josh Pennington to the Milwaukee Brewers for Thornburg.
Thornburg has missed significant time due to injury, but even if he was healthy and productive, the Red Sox have certainly missed Shaw’s production.
Travis Shaw since 2016 vs Boston’s third baseman since 2017
Travis Shaw: 6.4 fWAR, 1,119 PA, 117 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .343 OBP, .497 slugging%, .238 ISO, 10.9 BB%, 20.5 K%, 58 HR.
Rafael Devers: 1.7 fWAR, 663 PA, 97 wRC+, .320 wOBA, .312 OBP, .444 slugging%, .187 ISO, 7.5 BB%, 24.4 K%, 26 HR.
Eduardo Nunez: 0.9 fWAR, 640 PA, 93 wRC+, .314 wOBA, .304 OBP, .430 slugging%, .152 ISO, 3.1 BB%, 14.4 K%, 18 HR.
Deven Marrero: 0.3 fWAR, 188 PA, 51 wRC+, .257 wOBA, .359 OBP, .333 slugging%, .123 ISO, 6.4 BB%, 32.4 K%, 4 HR.
Marco Hernandez: 0.0 fWAR, 60 PA, 64 wRC+, .275 wOBA, .300 OBP, .328 slugging%, .052 ISO, 1.7 BB%, 25.0 K%, 0 HR.
Steve Selsky: -0.1 fWAR 9 PA, 1 2B, 5 Ks.
Josh Rutledge: -0.4 fWAR, 118 PA, 50 wRC+, .255 wOBA, .297 OBP, .262 slugging%, .037 ISO, 7.6 BB%, 26.3 K%, 0 HR.
Pablo Sandoval: -0.4 fWAR, 108 PA, 60 wRC+, .269 wOBA, .269 OBP, .354 slugging%, .141 ISO, 7.4 BB%, 22.2 K% and 4 HR.
Just for reference, here’s Shaw’s stat line again:
Shaw: 6.4 fWAR, 1,119 PA, 117 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .343 OBP, .497 slugging%, .238 ISO, 10.9 BB%, 20.5 K%, 58 HR.
And here’s Boston’s collective third baseman since 2017:
1.2 fWAR, 1,679 PA, 79 wRC+, .294 wOBA, .296 OBP, .388 slugging%, .140 ISO, 6.1 BB%, 22.8 K%, 44 HR.
Also, for reference, Shaw ranks 11th in fWAR among individual third baseman since the start of 2017. Boston’s third baseman in that span only have a higher collective fWAR than the third base groupings in Philadelphia and San Francisco.
Rafael Devers
Yes, Rafael Devers is the future at third base for the Red Sox, but Shaw could have slid over to first to accommodate the promising young player.
In that scenario, Boston wouldn’t have had to invest a roster spot in Mitch Moreland or go out and acquire Steve Pearce.
Once again (and for the last time, I promise) here’s Shaw’s production since the start of last season.
Shaw: 6.4 fWAR, 1,119 PA, 117 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .343 OBP, .497 slugging%, .238 ISO, 10.9 BB%, 20.5 K%, 58 HR.
And here are Boston’s collective first baseman in the same period:
2.6 fWAR, 1,373 PA, 103 wRC+, .329 wOBA, .330 OBP, .440 slugging%, .188 ISO, 9.7 BB%, 20.8 K%, 49 HR.
Those composite numbers have Boston first baseman sitting a less-than-ideal 20th in fWAR since the beginning of the 2017 campaign.
So yeah, not the best.
In conclusion
No one could have predicted that Thornburg would have missed significant time when the Red Sox acquired him. Similarly, Shaw’s emergence with the Brewers wasn’t entirely expected after a down season in his last year in Boston.
Hindsight is, again, 20-20, but this trade looks like one that Dombrowski and Boston would want a redo on.
