MLB trade season is finally here.
One of the more exciting times of year has arrived for MLB fans has arrived, and while there haven’t been any major blockbusters yet (sorry Kelvin Herrera, Jon Jay, Dylan Floro, Austin Jackson and Cory Gearrin) there will likely be some in the coming weeks.
What with the names of the likes of Manny Machado, Michael Fulmer, Zach Britton and others making regular appearances in the rumor mill, we could be in for an eventful July.
With that being said, here are three trades that make sense for all parties involved.
This is by no means a prediction, but if these deals went down for Cleveland, the Orioles, Yankees, Tigers, Brewers and Marlins, all six organizations would come out feeling pretty good about themselves.
(All contract information via Spotrac.)
Want more trade talk? Read about Machado, Fulmer, Britton and the other 197 players who could be traded this month with our trade guide (which, spoiler, also features a couple of MVPs & a future Hall of Famer):
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Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Mychal Givens to Cleveland for Francisco Mejia, Tyler Naquin, Jason Kipnis, Yu-Cheng Chang, James Karinchak and $2.5 million
Similar to last season’s White Sox/Yankees blockbuster that saw Todd Frazier, Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson head to the Bronx in exchange for Tyler Clippard and prospects Ian Clarkin, Tito Polo and Blake Rutherford, this is a case of Baltimore packaging it’s best prospects.
The team doesn’t necessarily have to do that, but they may find a higher impact return in doing so if teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and Brewers don’t offer up their best prospects for the right to rent Machado.
Cleveland, however, is another story.
This could be Terry Francona and company’s last season as legitimate World Series contenders.
Sure, the franchise could still win the weak American League Central in 2019, but Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Andrew Miller, Cody Allen and others becoming free agents this winter, and a team without some combination of that quartet might not pose the same threat to Houston, New York, Boston or Seattle as the current roster at full strength.
Adding Machado certainly gives Cleveland a shot at a title. He can play third base while Jose Ramirez shifts to second base.
Elsewhere, Adam Jones would bring a much-needed bat to an outfield grouping that entered play on Thursday 24th in total fWAR among Major League outfielders and is facing a lengthy spell without Chisenhall, who just hit the disabled list.
The veteran would certainly be an offensive upgrade over Cleveland’s other options, which include Naquin, Brandon Guyer, Rajai Davis and Greg Allen.
Meanwhile, Givens gives (sorry, low-hanging fruit, carry on) Terry Francona some bullpen insurance beyond this season and could replace either one of Miller or Allen in 2019.
Baltimore’s current setup man is controllable through 2021 via arbitration.
He won’t exactly be cheap to control, but Cleveland is creating some long-term financial flexibility by shipping out Kipnis in the deal.
Retaining Givens via arbitration would also likely be cheaper for Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff than handing out a sizeable contract to a relief pitcher like Craig Kimbrel, Robertson, Kelvin Herrera or brad Brach.
What the O’s get
First and foremost, we should mention the $2.5 million included. That’s part of this hypothetical transaction to cover Kipnis’ buyout for the 2020 season, leaving the O’s with just the infielder’s salary to pay over the next season and a half.
Kipnis is obviously the most established player coming back in the trade, and while that may not seem like the best fit with Baltimore’s rebuild, the Orioles can try and rehab his trade value in the next year.
With Kipnis at the keystone, Baltimore can shift Jonathan Schoop to third base, with Tim Beckham sliding back to shortstop to replace Machado.
If Kipnis at any point resembles a semblance of the 3-5 win player he was (predominantly speaking) from 2013 to 2016, the O’s will have a much-needed trade chip on their hands to further the rebuild.
The other, and likely more prominent, headliner in the trade would be Mejia. Widely regarded as one of the game’s better offensive prospects, the 22-year-old is showing well at Triple-A, but has yet to settle on a permanent home defensively.
He’s seen time at both catcher and the outfield corners recently, but the lack of a position shouldn’t be a problem in Baltimore, where the O’s are starved for long-term solutions at just about every position.
He, along with a likely top-two pick in next year’s draft, could serve as the Orioles’ cornerstones for the future.
The other three pieces in the trade—Naquin, Chang and Karinchak —don’t have the same ceiling as Meija, but all could play roles for the O’s in the near future.
Naquin would serve as a direct replacement for Jones in center field, while Chang (104 wRC+, .153 ISO at Triple-A) could split time with Beckham down the stretch or in 2019 before taking over on a more permanent basis.
There’s also Karinchak, whose fastball/curveball reliever should help him reach the Majors in the next few years.
The 22-year-old reliever has struck out 14.9 batters per nine frames in 32.2 frames split between Single-A and Advanced-A.
Those kind of numbers aren’t uncommon for relievers with quality stuff in the low minors, but Karinchak has been dominant. He’s pitched to a 0.42 ERA and a 2.04 FIP.
He could be a long-term relief piece for the O’s.
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Michael Fulmer and Francisco Liriano to the Yankees for Clint Frazier, Thairo Estrada, Billy McKinney and Clarke Schmidt
The New York Yankees need starting pitching help.
Luis Severino continues to cement his status as a bona fide ace (a 4.2 fWAR and a 2.48 FIP in 123.1 innings will do that for you), while CC Sabathia has fired off some quality innings as a mid-rotation, innings eater type of starter.
After that though, there’s a not a lot of—in some cases—consistency or, in others, experience.
Sonny Gray (4.32 FIP) and Masahiro Tanaka (4.95 FIP) don’t exactly resemble the frontline pitchers they were in years past, while Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga and Luis Cessa shouldn’t be expected or depended on to soak up significant innings down the stretch.
That makes the Tigers a perfect trading partner for New York.
Not only would Fulmer give the team a frontline option to pair with Severino, but he’d also give the Yankees a frightening rotation if/when Gray and Tanaka figure things out.
Liriano might not be enjoying an overly successful season, but he’s been a useful back-of-the-rotation option for Detroit.
He wouldn’t necessarily be expected to be New York’s fifth starter, but the southpaw could be used in tandem with German and Loaisiga down the stretch.
Liriano could also make an impact as a bullpen arm come the postseason, or even down the stretch in the regular season.
The Yankees certainly aren’t hurting for bullpen help, but on the year, Liriano could be a useful weapon against lefties.
On the season, the veteran is holding left-handed hitters to a .091 average, a .206 on-base percentage, a .194 wOBA, a 0.74 WHIP and a 20.5% hard-hit rate.
New York would also address its most significant needs without surrendering Major League contributors Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, or top pitching prospects like Justus Sheffield or Chance Adams.
This deal would allow the Yankees the flexibility to either push some of those trade chips toward the Orioles in exchange for Manny Machado, or simply hold on to them and reap the benefits as time goes by.
What the Tigers get
The Tigers’ farm system is a tale of two halves, as it were.
On the pitching side, Detroit is fairly rich in upside arms. 2018 first-overall pick Casey Mize joins a farm system that has four top-100 starting pitcher prospects in Franklin Perez, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo and Beau Burrows.
There’s also former Dodgers first-round pick Kyle Funkhouser, who was just promoted to Triple-A, as well as a variety of other potential Major League pieces in starters Matt Hall and Grayson Long, as well as relievers Bryan Garcia, Sandy Baez (who no-hit the Yankees over 4.1 innings in his Major League debut) and Jason Foley among others.
Where Detroit’s farm system isn’t so deep is position players.
There’s outfielders Christin Stewart and Mike Gerber at Triple-A. Daz Cameron also plays in the outfield, but at Double-A, where he hits in the same lineup as power-hitting and excellent defensive backstop Jake Rogers.
There’s also shortstop Isaac Paredes, who is sporting a .188 ISO, a .360 wOBA and a 126 wRC+ as a 19-year-old against competition that is on average 3.5 years older than.
This is all without mentioning fellow 2018 draft picks Parker Meadows and Kody Clemens.
There are certainly quality prospects to be found.
However, Detroit’s rebuild doesn’t necessarily have a potential cornerstone position player to build around like the Cubs did with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, or like the White Sox have with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert.
Stewart could be that kind of a player if his offensive production is elite—something that isn’t out of the question—but there’s a dearth of impact bats moving through the system.
Frazier could be an impact bat for the Tigers, as soon as—well, now.
The only reason the ex-Cleveland farmhand hasn’t gotten more than a brief look in the Majors is because of the Yankees’ deep stable of quality outfielders.
In Detroit, he’d step into a prominent role almost immediately as an outfield and middle-of-the-order solution.
If Frazier were to be traded to Detroit, it could be months, even weeks, before he and Stewart hit together in the middle of Ron Gardenhire’s lineup.
That’s why the outfielder, as well as Estrada, fit more with Detroit’s rebuilding timeline than say a club in Baltimore or Kansas City.
The Tigers’ play has been ugly at times in 2018, but they’re seemingly multiple steps ahead of the likely long-gestating rebuilding projects in Texas, Baltimore, Miami and Kansas City.
What’s more, given the general frailty of the American League Central, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Detroit take a step forward—similar to how San Diego could in 2019—with the right moves ahead of next season.
Frazier would definitely count as one of those steps.
And while the loss of Fulmer will sting, the outfielder has a chance to be a presence in Detroit lineup for a decade as an impact player. That’s his ceiling.
Detroit will have Daniel Norris back at full strength in 2019, as well as some combination of the suddenly-resurgent Jordan Zimmermann, Blaine Hardy, Matthew Boyd, Funkhouser, Hall and Artie Lewicki, not to mention potentially one or both of Faedo and Burrows.
Thairo Estrada
Estrada’s inclusion in the deal is also key because it gives Detroit a potential middle-infield option at a time when there simply aren’t many on the horizon for the organization.
Dawel Lugo and Sergio Alcantara are the two closest prospects, but Estrada might just have a higher ceiling.
He’s currently on the disabled list, but could push for Major League playing time as soon as next season.
Billy McKinney
In surprising news, Billy McKinney is only 23. Surprising only in the sense that it seems like the outfield prospect has been around forever.
He was flipped with Addison Russell and Dan Straily to the Cubs in the Jeff Samardzija blockbuster in July of 2014 and alter changed teams again the in the Aroldis Chapman mega swap almost two years later.
Still, he’s all of 23 and could fill in at first base or in the outfield in the Majors. Like Frazier, his big league exposure to date has been limited thanks to the glut of players at his positions populating New York’s locker room.
He could start to realize his potential in Detroit, where at worst he could be a bench piece spelling Miguel Cabrera at first and players like Stewart and Nicholas Castellanos in the outfield.
Clarke Schmidt
Rounding out the deal is starting pitching prospect Clarke Schmidt.
Yes, yes, there was waxing on about Detroit’s pitching prospect depth earlier, but the reality is that you can never have enough pitchers, and Schmidt could be a good one.
It’ll be a long wait for him to make it to Major League stadiums, as he is just now working his way back in the Gulf Coast League following Tommy John surgery. Still, at his peak he could have four different pitches working in the Majors. For a starter, that’s worth taking a gamble on.
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Starlin Castro to the Brewers for Hernan Perez and outfield prospect Troy Stokes Jr.
The Milwaukee Brewers hooked up in the offseason on the Christian Yelich trade, and given the National League Central club’s needs at catcher, including J.T. Realmuto in this deal was mighty tempting.
However, the Brew Crew’s needs at shortstop might be equally, if not more, prominent.
The front office and coaching staff has thrown a number of players at the problem at shortstop, including Perez, Eric Sogard, Nate Orf and fielding wizard Orlando Arcia.
Arcia’s batting deficiencies (27 wRC+, .215 wOBA in 212 plate appearances) this season are the primary reason for Milwaukee needing an upgrade.
If he can turn things around, the need isn’t as great.
But his struggles have prompted the Brewers to go external in the team’s search for help, adding Tyler Saladino and Brad Miller from the White Sox and Rays respectively.
That’s why Castro is the ideal fit for an organization that has a similar positional black hole at second base. Jonathan Villar has been below league average at the plate (87 wRC+, .305 wOBA) despite a sky-high .358 BABIP that is well above his career norm and the league mean.
The former Cub and Yankee could see time at both positions with the Brewers, allowing the team to play whoever has the hot hand out of Miller, Saladino and Villar at the other middle-infield spot next to Castro.
He’d add some significant length to a Brewers order that already includes mashers Jesus Aguilar, Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Thames and Ryan Braun.
While the infielder’s contract—$10 million in 2018, $11 million in 2019 and a $16 million club option with a $1 million buyout for 2020—isn’t exactly cheap, it’s not too expensive either in the grand scheme of things.
It’s a tad bit more affordable than the three-year, $38 million deal Zack Cozart got from Anaheim and last winter and could end up coming off as even more of a bargain if players like Brian Dozier, Elvis Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jed Lowrie are handed large, multi-year deals this winter.
Castro is also quietly enjoying arguably the best offensive two-year stretch in his career.
Starlin Castro in 2017 with New York: 473 PA, 1.9 fWAR 110 wRC+, .338 wOBA, .792 OPS, .153 ISO, 4.9% walk rate, 19.7 K%.
Starlin Castro in 2018 with Miami: 408 PA, 1.8 fWAR, 108 wRC+, .329 wOBA, .760 OPS, .121 ISO, 7.4% walk rate, 18.6 K%.
The Brewers could do a lot worse in a trade, and judging by the trade market, it doesn’t seem like they could do a whole lot better either given the way things stand.
Milwaukee could obviously break the bank for Manny Machado, they have the necessary trade chips to feasibly get it done, but would they sacrifice so much of their future for a rental? That remains to be seen.
Other than that, the rest of the middle infield trade market consists of the likes of Josh Harrison, Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis, Alcides Escobar and others.
Names like Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, DJ LeMahieu and Ian Kinsler could come into play, but all four play on teams who still have a puncher’s shot at the playoffs and might prefer to stay in win-now mode rather than go for a partial tear down.
Even if all three were to become available, Milwaukee is once again in a rental situation and may find it more prudent to acquire Castro, who could be cheaper in the long run than some of the key free agents.
What’s more, acquiring the Miami shortstop would give the Brewers an ideal bridge to top hitting prospect Keston Hiura, who’s proceeded advance all the way to Double-A so far in his first full season of professional ball.
What the Marlins get
In exchange for Castro, the Marlins get a controllable, versatile piece in Hernan Perez who can fill in across the diamond.
Under team control via arbitration through 2020, Perez can play each position on the diamond outside of pitcher and catcher.
At 27, he’s not necessarily a long-term piece, but his versatility could help Miami ease pressure on younger players at a variety of different positions.
It also doesn’t hurt that he can make an impact on the base paths (9.6 BsR since the start of 2016) and has shown some pop.
Perez had ISOs of .156 and .155 in 2016 and 2017 and has posted a .149 ISO in 198 plate appearances this season.
Stokes Jr., one of a glut of notable Milwaukee prospects currently plying their trade at Double-A Biloxi, brings an intriguing blend of speed and power to the game.
An outfielder, he’s notched ISOs of .195 and .200 at Advanced-A and Double-A respectively last season.
He’s back with Biloxi in 2018, and seems to be figuring out the level, which is always a positive sign for prospects reaching Double-A.
In 388 plate appearances, the outfielder has a .366 on-base percentage, the aforementioned .212 ISO, a .466 slugging percentage, a .374 wOBA and a 135 wRC+ against competition that is on average two years older than him.
However, he’s buried on the organizational depth chart.
Yelich and Cain are entrenched in two of the outfield spots in Milwaukee, while Thames, Keon Broxton and Braun are also on hand.
There’s also prospect Brett Phillips at Triple-A, not to mention Trent Grisham and Corey Ray, who are both at Biloxi with Stokes Jr.
The deck isn’t so stacked in Miami where Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison look like potential long-term fits, while Brian Anderson may very well move back to third base if Martin Prado is dealt.
Outside of those three, there wouldn’t be as many players standing in Stokes Jr.’s way in terms of making an impact at the Major League level.
An outfield troika of Brinson, Harrison and Stokes Jr. could be a highly-productive trio down the line.
