MLB trade season is upon us, and if this July is anything like last July, pitching will be in high demand.
Last season, only 15 Major League position players were traded in July: Miguel Montero, Garrett Cooper, J.D. Martinez, Todd Frazier, Rob Refsnyder, Eduardo Nunez, Lucas Duda, Howie Kendrick, Hyun Soo Kim, John Ryan Murphy, Melky Cabrera, Jonathan Lucroy, Nori Aoki, Teoscar Hernandez and Adam Rosales.
The rest were either pitchers or prospects.
In fact, on July 31, 14 trades were completed. Just two of them involved Major League position players.
Every team could always use more pitching, whether it be in the bullpen or in the rotation.
This year, it will be interesting to see how the trade market plays out—especially where the starting pitchers are concerned.
The Yankees, Mariners, Brewers and Diamondbacks all have prominent needs in the rotation, while you wouldn’t put it past teams like the Cubs, Giants or Rockies to add a depth piece or two.
It’ll also be worth tracking to see how the rental market plays out.
Contending teams may feel more comfortable spending less on a player as a stop-gap then to devote considerable resources to a controllable hurler like Michael Fulmer or Chris Archer.
Here’s a look at the top 10 rental starters who could conceivably be available this summer (this is all speculative mind you).
The criteria for the following rankings obviously involves production, as well as handedness. The list does not include arbitration-eligible starters who conceivably could be non-tendered and become free agents.
Want more trade talk? Get our July 2018 MLB Trade Guide to find out who your favorite team could trade
Whether the Nationals actually sell off pieces in what could be Bryce Harper’s last year in the capital remains to be seen.
With young Philadelphia and Atlanta squads ahead of them in the standings, Washington might be better served staying the course and waiting for possible regression from either.
From that standpoint, it makes sense to keep hold of Gonzalez and try to re-sign him this winter.
At worst, they could net a draft pick for him if he departs via free agency.
Since 2010, Gonzalez has yet to turn in an fWAR below 2.9. He’s well on his way to a similar metric this season, with a 1.2 fWAR, a 3.76 ERA, a 3.93 FIP and 8.47 strikeouts per nine frames in 95.2 innings.
If he’s healthy and if the Angels sell, but Anaheim might be better off keeping him around to try and make a second-half run and then attempt to re-sign him in the offseason. That way, the team can try to win again in 2019.
So far in 2018, Richards has pitched to a 3.93 FIP in 73.2 frames. Of note, he’s struck out a career-high 10.51 batters per nine frames.
Toronto’s resident ace, Happ likely wouldn’t be considered an ace on most playoff staffs. Still, he could fill in as a third or fourth starter on a team like the Yankees, Mariners or Brewers.
He’s eclipsed the 2.0 fWAR mark in each of the last three seasons and has already done so in 2018 (2.1 fWAR entering play on Saturday).
Happ, like Richards, is missing bats at a career rate, with a personal best 9.64 strikeouts per nine innings and the first swinging strike percentage of his career (10.0%) to reach double digits.
The Twins haven’t been able to keep up with Cleveland in the American League Central and have had trouble staying in front of the rebuilding Tigers, who’ve spent large chunks of the year ahead of their division neighbors in Minnesota.
For his part, Lynn has been up and down in his first year in the American League.
Overall, he owns a 5.21 ERA and a 4.29 FIP in 86.1 innings.
If he can pitch like he did from May 16 through June 20 (2.29 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 37 Ks in 39.1 innings) he’d vault up this list.
However, if he pitches like he did up until May 16 (7.34 ERA, 5.47 FIP, 36 Ks in 34.1 innings), then the likes of Eovaldi, Cahill, Ross, Liriano and others should be ranked higher.
Making $2 million this season, according to Spotrac, Eovaldi’s salary makes him a viable option for just about any contender.
That, and average fastball velocity which Fangraphs pegs at 97.4 MPH, make him one of the more attractive arms on the market.
What the Rays do at the deadline obviously remains to be seen but trading a veteran on an expiring deal like Eovaldi certainly fits in with their modus operandi of years past.
Fastball aside, the starter has a 3.92 ERA, a 3.57 SIERA, a 0.92 WHIP, a 10.0% swinging strike percentage and 7.62 punch outs per nine frames in seven starts spanning 41.1 innings.
Teams in need of another starting option could certainly do much, much worse.
If Cahill can get healthy before the deadline, he could be one of the better starters available.
In his return to Oakland, the 30-year-old has soaked up 48.2 innings, pitching to a 2.77 ERA and a 3.05 FIP in the process.
Should Cahill, who’s currently on the disabled list, return to the rotation, he could bring back a quality return.
However, the A’s may opt to hold on to him, what with a 48-40 record entering the weekend and the potential to climb back into the division or Wild Card races should the Astros or Mariners go on a cold streak.
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Spending time back in a Padres uniform is doing Ross a world of good.
After a disastrous 49 innings with Texas in 2017, the right-hander has thrived upon his return to the National League West where he earned All-Star honors in 2014.
He’s fired off 100 innings for San Diego, pitching to a 3.78 ERA and a 4.32 FIP in the process.
Save for a few poor starts, Liriano has been remarkably consistent for the Tigers.
Pitching for former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson, the southpaw has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of his 13 starts this season.
He hasn’t pitched particularly deep into games, with just two outings lasting longer than seven innings. But with the way teams at the top of the league are shortening games with strong bullpens, Liriano would fit right in with a team like the Brewers or Yankees.
The fact that he’s a southpaw will help his trade value, as will the fact that Liriano has been dominant against left-handed hitters so far in 2018.
Lefties are batting just .098 with a .220 on-base percentage, a .216 slugging percentage and a miniscule .207 wOBA.
Harvey has made 10 starts for the Reds, and so far, the results have been relatively encouraging, with a 3.86 ERA and a 4.21 FIP and a 1.10 WHIP.
He’s no longer the dominant ace he was in Queens, but he’s done enough to rehab is value as a starter in Cincinnati that he’d make sense as a back-of-the-rotation option for a pitching-needy contender.
The usual suspects (Seattle, New York and Milwaukee) all make sense as fits.
Cole Hamels isn’t among the best starters available on the trade market. Sure, he’s got plenty of experience, and that shouldn’t be discounted, but Hamels simply isn’t the same pitcher he was earlier in his career.
This is not Justin Verlander in 2017, this is not even a pitcher who’s a frontline starter any more. Hamels is more of a back-of-the-rotation type at this point.
Here’s a blind resume look at two starting pitchers. All stats are as of the beginning of play on Saturday.
Pitcher A: 102.1 IP, 5.00 FIP, 3.96 SIERA, 9.15 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 1.76 HR/9, 1.30 WHIP, .281 BABIP, 92.1 average fastball velocity.
Pitcher B: 101.2 IP, 5.46 FIP, 4.13 SIERA, 8.14 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 2.12 HR/9, 1.29 WHIP, .274 BABIP, 91.9 average fastball velocity.
And the reveal…
Pitcher A is Hamels. Pitcher B is the Royals Jakob Junis.
Yes, Hamels stat line is better in most places, but the fact remains that there isn’t too much separating the two hurlers.
For reference, only Lucas Giolito has a lower fWAR than Junis among qualified starting pitchers this season.
In fact, among qualified starters, only Sal Romano, Chase Anderson, Julio Teheran, Bartolo Colon, Danny Duffy, Junis and Giolito have a lower fWAR than Hamels, who ranks 77th out of 84 starters.
(The average fastball velocities for both Hamels and Junis are via Fangraphs.)
Hamels has had some encouraging statistical outlays, no doubt, with a 12.2 swinging strike percentage and 9.15 strikeouts per nine frames.
But there are some definite warts on Hamels’ statistical resume this season.
What’s more, Hamels’ career BABIP is just .284, which doesn’t make his struggles look all that better.
And those stats were all before Hamels ran into a Tigers lineup that touched him up for five hits, three earned runs (seven total), two walks and a home run in just two thirds of an inning in his start on Saturday.
There’s also Hamels’ contract, which calls for him to earn $22.5 million this season (per Spotrac) and comes with a $20 million team option for 2019 that comes with a $6 million buyout.
That’s a lot of money.
All this points to Texas likely not receiving anything close to a significant return for the starter.
If the team offers to pay the rest of his salary as well as the 2019 buyout, perhaps they could get something done for a decent prospect.
But even if the Rangers offer to pay for Hamels, there’s still the stumbling block of his 2018 struggles.
Other rentals who could be moved: Marco Estrada, James Shields, Doug Fister and Jaime Garcia.
Happ, Lynn, Eovaldi, Ross, Liriano, Harvey and Hamels all made the list. Get a comprehensive breakdown of the other 194 players who could be traded this July with our latest trade guide.
What you get:
- A breakdown of all 200 players who could be traded in July
- From all 30 teams
- Includes 51 All-Stars, 2 MVPs, 17 Silver Slugger winners, 8 Gold Glove winners, 4 World Series MVPs, 3 ROYs, 2 Platinum Glove winners and one future Hall of Famer
- Some of the game’s elite prospects
