Justin Verlander.

That , my friends, is the reason that the Tigers win. But there’s more to it than just that.

Barring a collapse by Texas, the Tigers will likely have the worst playoff record of the AL teams, wild card included. This means that in a 5-game series in the ALDS, Game One is Verlander pitching in likely Boston or New York. The likely CY Young winner has 20 wins in 29 starts. He will likely get to more than that in a little over 30 starts. Meaning he wins two out of every three times he pitches, that is extremely scary when he might pitch twice in the series. Right there the Tigers likely get one at least out of him. If they get two, then they only have to win one game on the road out of three to take the series.

While Verlander is the best pitcher in the league there is also number two Max Scherzer. The right-hander is 13-7 on the year with a 4.21 ERA. The ERA might scare people off, but Scherzer is 6-3 with a substantially lower 3.44 ERA at home while giving up less than half the homers he does on the road. Holding batters to a .258 batting average at home helps compared to the .275 he gets hit off of on the road.

But the silver lining is that he will pitch at home. Verlander will pitch game one on the road. If you read the aforementioned stats it should not surprise you to see Verlander and Scherzer take games one and two in the division series, or frankly any other playoff matchup. Then you’ll see Detroit hoist the World Series trophy.