New to the free agent market this winter are a plethora of players ranging from impact performers to potentially useful role players to intriguing depth pieces. If you’re looking for a certain type of player to help your team, they’re probably on the free agent market this winter.
And new to Know Hitter this winter is or new Free Agent Series, which will include breakdowns of numerous free agents, ranging from the obvious impact players to the more value plays teams can make.
This is the first in that series. And we’re starting with now former Royals pitcher Ian Kennedy.
Enjoy!
(Also enjoy the “subtle” disco band reference. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.)
Ian Kennedy
Kennedy was abysmal in 2020. The veteran was lit up across the board with all of his pitches getting crushed—there was no sole exception—to the point where he finished with a -0.6 fWAR in 14 innings pitched.
That being said, the key statistic in that sentence is isn’t the fWAR, but rather the innings pitched. It was only a 14 inning sample size. Yes, it wasn’t great, but it was all of 14 innings more than you or I threw at the Major League level last season. The former Padre also missed time due a calf injury.
Sometimes when pitchers suddenly get lit up it has a lot to do with their heater losing velocity. This can then lead to the fastball and some of the offspeed pitches checking in with similar velocities, which is generally a problem.
However, Kennedy’s fastball didn’t really tail off all that much from a velocity standpoint. It averaged 94.4 MPH in 2019 and averaged out at 93.7 MPH in 2020. It’s obviously not ideal but it also isn’t a massive cause for concern.
Speaking of 2019, Kennedy was excellent out of the Royals’ bullpen that year. The relief corps were a relative bright spot for the then 59-103 KC squad. Not like a sunshine band from a bright spot per say, but it was a dependable group. Kennedy in particular was excellent.
In 63.1 innings he worked to a 2.99 FIP and a 1.5 fWAR. Those 63.1 innings also included 73 strikeouts, just four home runs and 72nd percentile or better finishes in the following categories league wide:
- xwOBA, 84th
- xwOBA, 84th
- xBA, 75th
- K%, 75th
- xSLG, 72nd
Kennedy’s fastball spin rate landed in the 80th percentile while his curveball spin rate finished in the 77th percentile. His barrel % finished in the 64th percentile.
The moral of the story is that Ian Kennedy was very good at throwing the baseball later in games in 2019 and 2020 was a rather small sample size.
Speculatively speaking, Kennedy probably won’t land the kind of free agent contract that someone like Liam Hendriks or Blake Treinen might, but a team searching for a low risk, high-reward bullpen piece could find value in the 35-year-old, who isn’t that far removed from being an above-average relief pitcher.
