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The Baltimore Orioles fall from grace wasn’t exactly a pretty one. Nor was it a gradual decline down the slope from 90-win team to a team picking in the lottery.
Baltimore made the playoffs three times from 2012 to 2016. They won a wild card game and an American League Division series during that span. Buck Showalter won manager in a 2014 season during which the team won 96 games. Not a single a sub-.500 year to be found in that span.
Then 2017 hit, and with it a 75-win season.
Then 2018 hit, and with it a 47-win season.
So yeah, a quick descent into the abyss of rebuilding teams.
The Orioles have spent much of the past year and fluff deconstructing their contending roster and pivoting toward a potentially prosperous future. Potentially is the operative word there. Rebuilds aren’t an exact science.
But the O’s are at least moving in the right direction. They had a change in front office and managerial regimes over the winter, but that hasn’t stopped the club from continuing to purge the roster of veteran assets in favor of future prospects and assets.
What’s been done so far
Under the previous front office, Baltimore was extremely active in July. That happens when you begin the month with a 24-59 record and a -123-run differential.
So, the O’s sold off a bunch of core players from their contending window. Manny Machado was traded. So was Zack Britton. Also Brad Brach. And that was before July 31.
On the day of the trade deadline, Kevin Gausman, Darren O’Day and Jonathan Schoop were all dealt.
Here’s a list of the prospects and young players acquired for the six veterans.
- Yusniel Diaz, OF. FanGraphs system ranking: 2nd. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: 1st.
- Dean Kremer, SP. FanGraphs system ranking: 9th. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: 9th.
- Jean Carlos Encarnacion, INF. FanGraphs system ranking: 14th. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: 13th.
- Brett Cumberland, C. FanGraphs system ranking: 12th. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: 26th.
- Zach Pop, RP. FanGraphs system ranking: 17th. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: 20th.
- Cody Carroll, RP. FanGraphs system ranking: 19th. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: 21st.
- Rylan Bannon, INF. FanGraphs system ranking: 27th. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: 23rd.
- Dillon Tate, SP. FanGraphs system ranking: 23rd. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: 18th.
- Jean Carmona, INF. FanGraphs system ranking: 29th. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: 24th.
- Luis Ortiz, SP. FanGraphs system ranking: 31st. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: 19th.
- Evan Phillips, RP. FanGraphs system ranking: 24th. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: NR.
- Josh Rogers, SP. FanGraphs system ranking: NR. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: NR.
- Bruce Zimmermann, SP. FanGraphs system ranking: NR. MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline ranking: NR.
- Breyvic Valera, INF. Since moved to San Francisco for cash.
- Jonathan Villar, INF. Villar is the O’s starting second baseman. Established MLB player. More on him in a bit.
Overall farm system rank by Fangraphs (Post 2018): 28th
Chris Tillman, Danny Valencia and Craig Gentry were among the veterans cut during the 2018 regular season, as the organization embraced a full-blown youth movement.
Of that group of prospects and young players, Tate, Rogers, Carroll, Phillips, Ortiz and Villar are already on the 40-man roster. On the whole, it was a much-need organizational boost for the O’s, who routinely fielded one of baseball’s thinnest farm system.
(Baltimore has also done well, as of late, to pick up young, MLB-ready pieces in Rio Ruiz, Pedro Severino and Dwight Smith Jr. in minor transactions. All three should be useful placeholders who could develop into future pieces if their auditions go well.)
The 2018 trade haul, combined with the 2019 draft class and future trade hauls, should help the Orioles on the path to a brighter future. But there’s still a bunch of work to be done. Emphasize a bunch.
Speaking of trade hauls…
What could still happen trade-wise
We now get back to Villar, as well as the other veteran pieces still on the O’s roster. The move to non-tender Tim Beckham doesn’t look fantastic in hindsight given not just his hot start in Seattle, but also the rebound potential he had for an O’s team with nothing to lose by keeping him on the active roster.
Even without Beckham, there are still some trade chips to be found here. Nothing quite on par with, or even close to Manny Machado in terms of value, but Mike Elias and friends have some potentially useful pieces to work with.
Jonathan Villar
Rebounded from a bit of a down year in 2017 to put up a 2.0 fWAR campaign split between Milwaukee and Baltimore. His 94 wRC+ and .312 wOBA more resemble something close-ish to league average as opposed to noteworthy, but he can still bring the pop/speed combo (14 HR, 3.3 BsR, 35 SB in 2018) that can be so potent in baseball.
He’s also extremely versatile, which doesn’t exactly hurt. Those characteristics, plus his controllability—per Spotrache’s arbitration eligible through 2020—make him a trade fit for just about any team.
Mychal Givens
Givens has a cumulative 4.1 fWAR over the last three seasons. His FIP has never eclipsed 3.72 in a full season and he’s working on a lifetime 12.6 swinging strike percentage.
The reliever is making an entirely reasonable $2.15 million in 2019 and has two more years of arbitration eligibility left, according to Spotrac.
The Tigers got Jeimer Candelario and well-regarded prospect Isaac Paredes for a season and a half of Justin Wilson and a half season of Alex Avila a few years back. Of course, Paredes’ prospect star has risen significantly quite a bit since the trade.
If Givens pitches at a high level, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Baltimore get a trade return in and around what the Tigers got from a value standpoint at the time. He’s clearly the Orioles’ best trade chip.
Dylan Bundy
With three years of arbitration eligibility remaining for Bundy, per Spotrac, the O’s don’t necessarily have to trade the starter anytime soon.
However, if he starts to pitch well, they shouldn’t think twice. Baltimore isn’t going to be competitive this season or next. Or perhaps even during the season after that. Bundy’s controllability give the team some time to build up his value. But if he starts pitching well you move him.
The former fourth-overall pick has shown flashes of being an effective hurler in the Majors in the past, including a 169.2 inning 2017 season when he accumulated a 4.38 FIP and a 2.5 fWAR. If he can pitch like that, Baltimore should be able to do well in a trade this summer or winter.
Richard Bleier and Jesus Sucre
Baltimore’s farm system is on the way up, but it’s still needs a serious infusion of future talent. This is kind of their dilemma, and why they might be rebuilding for a while.
After Givens and Bundy, the team’s best trade chips might just be Richard Bleier, a reliever who has been allergic to strikeouts in the past, and Jesus Sucre, a dependable, glove-first backstop.
There’s not exactly a lot to work with from a trade asset standpoint. Of course, there’s more to a rebuild than just making successful trades and bringing back quality prospects in said trades, but here the O’s are.
There next best trade chips after that might be the currently injured Mark Trumbo and Alex Cobb as well as Andrew Cashner, who like Bleier, doesn’t miss near enough bats. The veteran starter has also been hit around fair bit since making the move to Baltimore.
Notable young talent already on the roster/prospects to potentially build around
As of now, more of Baltimore’s future core looks like it’s playing in the upper minors compared to the Majors.
The upper minors is currently here the likes of Diaz, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Keegan Akin, Kremer and Cumberland are currently stationed.
Make no mistake, there are some potentially useful players in the Majors. Trey Mancini, if he can regain his form at the plate, would probably have more potential to make an impact in Baltimore if it weren’t for Chris Davis and his albatross of a contract at first base.
Recent Rule 5 picks Richie Martin and Drew Jackson could be exceptions. Martin in particular stands out based on his ceiling and controllability. Both could be keepers.
We once again arrive at the root of why Baltimore could be in for a long rebuild. Most of their MLB players probably aren’t long-term solutions (or trade chips for that matter) and many of their best hope for the future is in the minors.
Prospects aren’t an exact science. Some make it to the Majors. Some don’t. Some hit their ceilings. Some exceed expectations. And some don’t live up to expectations at all.
That’s what you get with prospects.
So, let’s say for a moment hat all of Baltimore’s prospects in the upper minors hit their ceilings.
Of the group at Double-A (Diaz, Mountcastle, Hays, Akin, Kremer, Cumberland, Pop, Tate, Hunter Harvey and Bannon) only Diaz and Mountcastle are rated as anything above a 45 FV prospect by FanGraphs. And the duo are both 50 FV prospects according to FanGraphs, for what it’s worth.
In fact, Cumberland, Pop, Harvey and Tate are 40 FV prospects in the same publication’s rankings. Bannon is a 35+ FV prospect.
That’s far from the kind of group you want to build a contender around from a future value standpoint.
In FanGraphs’ post 2018 farm system rankings , Texas and Miami—two teams in a similar-ish positions to the O’s in terms of rebuilding—had five and four 50 FV prospects respectively. Further up the rankings, Detroit had four 50 FV prospects, as well as three 55 FV prospects.
Even contenders with parched farm systems picked over from years of contending trades like the Cubs, Angels and Yankees all had three 50 FV prospects apiece. Cleveland checked in with four.
Having the number one overall pick in the draft will certainly help beef things up for the Orioles, as well some shrewd trades, but it’s hard to predict when the O’s will be relevant again.
That’s a murky game of guesswork with the best of rebuilds when teams have robust farm systems. For Baltimore, it’s not so simple. In fact, it’s even more murkier.
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