The Milwaukee Brewers need a shortstop. Orlando Arcia’s postseason heroics aside, there’s a definite need for reinforcements.
Milwaukee shortstops finished 30th among shortstop groupings around the league. They were the only team to finish with a negative collective fWAR (-1.7) at the position. The next closest team was Pittsburgh at 0.2.
Said help could come from the shortstop portion of the free agent market, where Jose Iglesias is still available. If the Brewers wanted to try shoe-horning Marwin Gonzalez at the position for 145-150 games, they could that too. Although Gonzalez’ glove work at shortstop was less than ideal last season (269.2 innings, -3.3 Def, -30.6 UZR/150, -5 DRS), he’s yet another option.
Turning to the trade market, there aren’t a plethora of options.
Most of the elite shortstops are set on the rosters of pennant-chasing contenders. Jean Segura was perhaps the only top-tier, or close to top-tier, shortstop available, but he’s now in Philadelphia after the Mariners dealt him in the J.P. Crawford/Carlos Santana trade.
Additionally, it’s too early, now, to start going after recently-signed rental players like Jordy Mercer, Asdrubal Cabrera, Tim Beckham and Freddy Galvis, although any of those four could make sense as the season progresses.
That limits the Brewers’ options considerably. What’s more, many teams are probably content to see how their current rosters work in Spring Training and may not want to shake up their roster too much at this moment in time.
Still, it’s been an unconventional offseason. J.T. Realmuto was just traded, and Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have yet to find new homes. Spring Training could feature more offseason or in-season type trades.
Here are a few options for the Brewers to improve their shortstop outlook.
(This is all speculative mind you.)
(All contract information via Spotrac.)
The somewhat-expensive veterans
- Brandon Crawford
- Elvis Andrus
- Starlin Castro
Andrus and Crawford come with no-trade protection. The former has 10-and-5 rights, while the latter has a full no-trade clause. So that’s a bit of hurdle.
Andrus can opt out of his deal after 2019, but has a number of options built in that could keep him under contract through 2023. Crawford’s contract is a bit more straightforward, expiring after the 2021 season with no options.
And neither are cheap. Andrus can make $15.25 million in 2019 and 2020 and earn $14.25 million each of the next two seasons. He has a $15 million team option for the 2023 campaign. Crawford is earning $15.2 million in each of the next three seasons.
Castro hasn’t played the position full time since leaving the Cubs, but his bat would provide a definite upgrade to the Brewers’ already-deep lineup. He’s slated to take home $11.857 million this coming season and has a $16 million team option for 2020 that can be bought out for $1 million.
I floated the idea of Milwaukee flipping Eric Thames for Castro recently in an article you can read here. And while that hypothetical transaction was a three-team transaction involving the Detroit Tigers, the general framework of a Thames/Castro swap still makes sense.
Obviously, the Brewers would have to add some prospects or other pieces. But assuming that they’d buy out Castro of his 2020 option, as well as taking Thames’ $6 million salary into account, it would spit out to Milwaukee paying $6.857 million for one season of Castro.
Young, controllable shortstops who are going to take something close to overpaying to acquire
- Adalberto Mondesi
- Ahmed Rosario
- Dansby Swanson
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- Niko Goodrum
- Scott Kingery
On one hand, it’s hard to see the Brewers to overpay for some of these shortstops given Brice Turang’s presence in the low minors. Plus, they’re unlikely to surrender Keston Hiura, who’s undoubtedly their best trade chip.
Still, a win-now Brewers club with a shortstop of Mondesi’s quality next to Hiura would give Milwaukee a middle-infield duo to build around for the considerable future.
It should also be noted here that players like Goodrum and Kingery aren’t necessarily just shortstops but are more versatile utility types who can slide around the field. Both are controllable long-term, so they’d probably cost a pretty penny. Still, both would provide a solution for the Brewers.
Actual trade ideas
Brewers acquire: Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik
Giants acquire: Orlando Arcia, Eric Thames, Hernan Perez and Troy Stokes Jr.
The Giants need outfield help and financial flexibility. The Brewers need middle infield help. This trade helps appease both those needs.
Combining the salaries involved (and assuming the Giants would buy out Thames’ 2020 option for $1 million at the end of the season) San Francisco comes away shedding $19.05 million from their books for 2019 and adding just $10.05 million in incoming salaries.
(The transaction would also wipe away Panik’s 2020 commitment as well as a further $30.4 million owed to Crawford over the next two years.
That’ll give Farhan Zaidi and company some wiggle room to bring in upgrades while also solving the outfield problem to a degree. Thames and Perez could both start for the Giants, and Stokes Jr. isn’t too far away from the Majors having finished 2018 at Double-A.
What’s more, the organization can roll with Alen Hansen at second base in Panik’s absence. The former Pirates farmhand was a bit better than Panik last season, so the Giants might actually get better there.
Alen Hanson in 2018: 310 PA, 0.5 fWAR, 86 wRC+, .296 wOBA, .173 ISO, 8 HR.
Joe Panik in 2018: 392 PA, 0.1 fWAR, 75 wRC+, .280 wOBA, .078 ISO, 4 HR.
It’s not a massive upgrade as upgrades go, but an upgrade is an upgrade. Elsewhere, San Francisco can utilize Arcia at short or sign Jose Iglesias for a fraction of what Crawford would cost.
Jose Iglesias in 2018: 2.5 fWAR, 13.6 Def, 464 PA, 90 wRC+, .304 wOBA, .120 ISO, 5 HR.
Brandon Crawford in 2018: 1.9 fWAR, 5.5 Def, 594 PA, 93 wRC+, .306 wOBA, .139 ISO, 14 HR.
(Of course, Milwaukee could always go out and sign Iglesias, but this piece is more about trade solutions for the Brew Crew.)
The added financial flexibility could also allow the Giants to add a player like Marwin Gonzalez (5.6 fWAR, .349 wOBA since the start of 2017) or Derek Dietrich (16 HR, .326 wOBA in 2018) who can man multiple positions and help in a variety of ways. Denard Span, Adam Jones, Clay Buchholz, Gio Gonzalez, Tony Sipp, Ryan Madson, Nick Vincent, Adam Warren and Tyler Clippard are among the other free agents who could potentially provide value to San Francisco on short-term deals.
For the Brewers
Milwaukee would take on all of Crawford’s salary, as well as any future commitments to Panik, but adding the middle-infield duo solves two key positions of need for the reigning National League champs.
Crawford’s financial commitment is notable, but he comes with an equally notable track record. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2012, only two shortstops (Andrelton Simmons and Francisco Lindor) have a higher fWAR than Crawford’s 20.3 number. The San Francisco shortstop is also just a year removed from a four-year stretch that saw him notch a 14.4 fWAR, just .1 of a win off Corey Seager’s number over the same span.
Even if he can’t replicate his fWAR outlays from the 2015 and 2016 campaigns (4.3 and 5.3) and ends up being a 2-3 win shortstop on a yearly basis, it’d be a definite win for the Brewers.
Panik too is coming off a 2018 that wasn’t his best. But the second baseman still rarely strikes out and plays quality defense. Additionally, his hitting may have been partly impacted by a .265 BABIP that was close to .30 points below the veteran’s career metric.
The current Giant is just a year removed from a four-year run where logged an 8.9 fWAR. That was good for 13th among MLB second baseman from 2014 to 2017 and was a higher number than the likes of DJ LeMahieu, Logan Forsythe, Cesar Hernandez, Jonathan Schoop and Kolten Wong over the same span.
As with Crawford, if he regains that form, it’d make the Brewers all the more dangerous team come the regular season and October.
Brewers acquire Adalberto Mondesi
Royals acquire Freddy Peralta, Joe Gray, Trey Supak and Jacob Nottingham
The Royals aren’t going to be relevant for a long time. All those win-now trades, plus some untimely free agent departures, have left Kansas City’s front office staring at a long rebuild. They did alright with the draft last year but are currently lacking in both farm system depth and notable trade assets.
They got what they could for Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas, Jon Jay and Drew Butera, but it remains to be seen who the organization will move next.
They should shop just about everyone on their roster. The rebuild is going to take that long. And while you can make the argument that Mondesi might still be around when the rebuild is over, his value is at a high point right now. The prudent long-term might be to move the 23-year-old.
Mondesi and Whit Merrifield, represent Kansas City’s best trade chips, although the latter just signed a long-term extension and is already 30. The former might bring back more. After those two, the list of trade chips drops off significantly.
Alex Gordon is on a bloated, but expiring, contract. Ian Kennedy’s deal is close to unmovable. Jorge Soler needs to build on 2018 in order to have serious trade value. Jorge Bonifacio are too inconsistent. Danny Duffy’s value is probably at an all-time low. Salvador Perez’s contract is also on the bloated side of things.
By moving Mondesi now, the organization get pieces for the future in Gray and Supak, pieces who might still be around when the Royals are good again.
Kansas City also nabs a controllable, 22-year-old starter who logged a 3.72 FIP and a 1.2 fWAR in 78.1 innings last season. He’ll anchor the rotation until Jackson Kowar and Brady Singer are ready, and then join the duo atop the Royals’ starting group.
Grey arguably becomes Kansas City’s best position player prospect, while Supak adds even more pitching depth. Nottingham, meanwhile, immediately takes over Perez’ heir-apparent behind the plate.
Additionally, he’d give the organization the roster flexibility to flip the franchise icon at a time when catching depth around the league is anything but deep. The Royals should market Perez to teams who missed out on J.T. Realmuto and see what they can get, even if they have to eat some money in the process.
(Brice Turang could make sense in this kind of hypothetical deal too, but I went with Peralta as the headliner due to his potential value down the line as a more proven commodity in the Majors.)
For the Brewers
Giving up Peralta, Grey, Supak and Nottingham is a lot, but Mondesi comes with five more years of controllability and still has two years left before he hits arbitration.
He might not produce like he did in 2018 (14 HR, .341 wOBA), but he’ll be productive. Mondesi doesn’t draw many walks and his BABIP might bring him back down to earth a bit. Still, he’ brings speed defense and some hitting ability, which should be enough for the Brewers to pull the trigger.
Peralta is buried in the Brewers’ rotation picture by Jhoulys Chacin, Brandon Woodruff, Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Jimmy Nelson and Corbin Burnes. Similarly, Grey could be expendable given the long-term presences of Christin Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield. Not to mention fellow prospects Corey Ray and Tristen Lutz.
Supak is similarly buried on the organizational depth chart, while Nottingham could be expendable with Grandal on the roster. The ex-Dodger isn’t signed long-term, but this is a chance for the Brewers to claim a World Series crown next year. Sacrificing some long-term catcher insurance is a fine trade off in pursuit of a world championship.
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