The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim employ baseball’s best player in Mike Trout. With Trout’s free agency approaching and the Angels going nowhere fast, they should go all-in with the future Hall of Famer.

(All contract information via Spotrac.)

The Angels, so far, haven’t done much to surround baseball’s best player with an elite roster worthy of competing. Mike Trout, who in his seven full seasons has finished worse than second in the American League MVP voting just once—he was fourth in 2017— has 15 more postseason plate appearances and one more postseason hit than you do.

All of those came in three games against the Royals in a three-game sweep in 2014.

So, Mike Trout has as many playoff victories as you do.

In Anaheim’s quest to surround him with quality players, they’ve added Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton and obviously Shohei Ohtani. And while all those signings have largely gone as expected from a production standpoint, it’s been a stars-and-scrubs approach in Anaheim.

The Halos seem to like their rental signings and have dipped back into the market for one-year deals this winter.

Among the players to join on one-year pacts include new closer Cody Allen, starters Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill, catcher Jonathan Lucroy and first baseman Justin Bour.

It’s been a good-but-not-great offseason haul. Especially with the likes of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper still on the market. And while neither of those players was likely a fit for the Angels from a financial standpoint, the organization should have gone with a more all-in approach this winter in order to try and win with Trout in a bid to convince him to sign an extension and sign long-term.

Because, the one-year rentals don’t look like enough on paper to help Anaheim overcome the 23-game gap between them and the Astros, or even the 17-game difference between the Halos and the A’s in the Wild Card race.

You can even make the argument that the retooled, but clearly rebuilding, Mariners have a similar roster to the Angels in terms of competitiveness.

The Payroll

Even if payroll was a limiting factor in pursuing someone like Machado or Harper, the Angels could’ve (and realistically, still could) pursue affordable, controllable high-end talent as upgrades.

The Halos still make sense as an ideal landing spot for J.T. Realmuto from an on-field fit standpoint. Their farm system isn’t as deep as say Tampa Bay’s or Atlanta’s, but Anaheim can start any proposal with Jo Adell.

Fellow prospects Brandon Marsh and Griffin Canning are in and around top 100 prospects lists. Jahmai Jones and Matt Thaiss are well-regarded prospects. Plus, young controllable big leaguers like infielder David Fletcher (1.9 fWAR in 307 PA last year) and Jamie Barria (1.3 fWAR in 129.1 IP) could also be added to any deal.

Even if not used in a Realmuto transaction, the Angels could package some grouping of the players to go after controllable players like Whit Merrifield, David Peralta, Nomar Mazara or Marcus Stroman.

In fact, and this is all purely speculative mind you, that someone like Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer from Cleveland would make sense as a trade target if the Angels included Kole Calhoun in any transactions with some prospects.

The reliance on rentals and inability to find long-term solutions (like a Realmuto, Merrifield or Kluber would be) has made Trout’s supporting cast an ever-changing group. And that has hurt the Angels’ on-field production recent years.  

Stars and Scrubs

Since the start of 2015, just four position players (Trout at 35.6, Andrelton Simmons at 13.2, Kole Calhoun at 8.9 and Justin Upton at 4.0) have posted a higher fWAR than 2.9 during their time in an Angels uniform over in those seasons.

The fWAR numbers really bring the stars and scrubs roster construction model—whether utilized intentional or not—into full focus.

The Diamondbacks, who since 2015 have just four more total victories than the Angels, have had seven position players break the 2.9 fWAR mark while wearing an Arizona uniform. The Tigers, who have 64 wins each of the last two years and 31 less wins than Anaheim in the last four years, had nine such position players. Then there’s the Reds, who haven’t eclipsed 68 wins in any seasons since 2015 and have finished fifth in their division four years running. Cincinnati has had 11 players in a Reds uniform log at least a 3.0 fWAR during their Cincinnati tenure since the Opening Day 2015.

And sure, you can make the argument that you’d rather have Trout than a slightly more balanced roster, but that hasn’t worked for the Angels.

The unbalanced roster, partly due to injuries, has spread to the pitching staff. Just six hurlers since 2015 have accumulated an fWAR north of 2.0 in an Halos uniform.

Over that span the Tigers have had 10 such pitchers. So, to have the Twins (a team with 14 less victories than Anaheim since 2015). Even the A’s, who like Anaheim seem to cycle through pitchers (although not necessarily due to injuries) have had 10 such pitchers.

That kind of disparity speaks to a few things.

One, the Angels obviously cycle through a lot of rentals and one-year rentals. Two, they simply don’t hold on to Trout’s supporting cast for long. That seems likely to change (somewhat) moving forward with Justin Upton locked into a long-term deal and Shohei Ohtani and David Fletcher controllable long-term.

Still, it also speaks to the Halos’ farm system not allowing the team to invest all that much in player acquisitions via trade. The Andrelton Simmons deal cost the organization dearly form a prospect depth, and while that transaction has seemingly worked out, it’s taken a while for the farm system to recover and boast trade chips that can collectively bring back a player who isn’t a rental.

Without Trout?

It makes you wonder without Trout, where would the Angels be in the coming seasons? Sure, Ohtani could be a two-way star down the line but his recent Tommy John surgery seems to have derailed those plans for the immediate future.

Plus, the Halos have been middle-of-the-road in terms of position player fWAR—to say nothing of their pitching staff—since 2015. They rank 14^th with a 77.5 metric. However, Trout accounts for 35.6 of that total fWAR.

Take the perennial MVP contender out of the mix and the Angels’ fWAR over that span plummets to 41.9. That would put them at 29^th in the league since 2015, just a few wins above the Padres’ group of position players at 39.2.

If that trend continues, Ohtani and Upton or no, the Angels are going to be in trouble.

The 2019 season should have been an all-in attempt from the front office to win. If the Angels stand any chance of getting Trout to re-sign, winning probably doesn’t hurt, especially like winning a World Series winning.

Whether the Halos can do that this season remains to be seen. Their current roster doesn’t exactly scream pennant-chaser. In fact, it probably screams fringe Wild Card pretender more than anything else.

So, in a way, the team should be going for it. They’re in for some losing campaigns if Trout departs and while the prospects they have in the minors could help, they’re unlikely to successfully fill the shoes of a player already ticketed for Cooperstown.

Why not go for it in these last two years with Trout and try and take home a World Series? Even if he leaves despite winning a World Series, you still have the ultimate prize to show for it.

It’d behoove Los Angeles to go all in this winter.

Unfortunately, they haven’t.

2019

In a way, the Halos are hedging their bets a bit. They’ve had a putrid farm system in the past, and it still isn’t a relatively deep group. So, in the event that Trout does leave, there will be some reinforcements coming at some point.

That’s not to say those players, or any the Angels sign, will be able to replace Trout like-for-like and production-for-production. Few players in history fit that bill.

But at the same time, by not capitalizing on Trout’s prime years, or years in Anaheim period, the organization is potentially setting itself up for a continued stretch as a team that is somewhere ranging from decent to not good enough.

Similarly, not capitalizing at a time when so many teams aren’t aggressively pursuing upgrades this winter and when the opportunity is there to establish themselves as near playoff locks seems like a missed opportunity. Especially with Trout on the roster.

The American League West looks a bit weaker this season. Houston, in layman’s terms, is still very, very, very good and have only improved with the addition of Michael Brantley. But, Seattle has taken a significant step back. Oakland’s rotation still needs a lot of help, and they could do with another outfielder.

With the right additions, the opportunity is there for the Halos.

What if Mike Trout Leaves?

Trout is a free agent after 2020. And let’s say he signs elsewhere. You may be thinking to yourself, well, the Halos have all these rentals contracts coming off the books, surely they’ll have the financial flexibility to bring in some other marquee names to help replace the All-Star.

Yes and no.

A decent chunk of Anaheim’s current payroll is tied up in players who will hit the open market next winter. That group, which includes Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Cody Allen, Jonathan Lucroy and Justin Bour, will need to either be replaced or re-signed at some point.

That leaves the potential for future long-term salary commitments next offseason. And even if the Angels sign that group, or a similar group to one-year deals for 2020 to preserve some long-term financial flexibility, they’ll still need to be replaced at some point. And that won’t be cheap.

Plus, in addition to Trout, Simmons, Zack Cozart, Kole Calhoun (team option for 2020) and Tyler Skaggs could hit the open market after 2020 as well. They won’t be cheap or easy to replace. And this is all without mentioning the combined $53 million Albert Pujols and Upton will cost in 2021.

At that point—and it should be noted that this is a long ways out, things could change—the team’s core would be some combination of Ohtani, Andrew Heaney, Adell, Canning, Marsh, Jones, Thaiss, Barria, maybe Kevin Maitan, Ty Buttrey, Felix Pena, Taylor Ward and Cam Bedrosian with an aging Upton and Pujols.

Is that good enough to keep up with the Astros? Certainly not.

At that point, the Astros will still have Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Lance McCullers Jr., Carlos Correa, Josh James, Tony Kemp and Kyle Tucker still around with Forrest Whitely, Yordan Alvarez and J.B. Bukauskas likely joining them.

It may not be enough to keep up with the A’s either.

Additionally, come 2021, Sean Manaea, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Franklin Barreto will still be under team control in Oakland. They could be joined by the highly-touted Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk by that point as well.

Anaheim’s best bet is to win now. They should go all-in or risk losing Mike Trout and being stuck with a middling roster going nowhere fast.

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