The Cincinnati Reds seem to be going for it in some regard 2019. With most of their new additions playing on one-year contracts, will the gamble pay off?
The Cincinnati Reds have been active this offseason.
Along with the Twins and White Sox, Cincinnati has been one of the few teams this offseason (especially those coming off a down year) to embrace actual spending to improve the team.
The Reds pulled off the rare feat of trading a Tanner (Rainey) for another Tanner (Roark). A transaction that had absolutely nothing to do with Full House.
In addition to Roark, the Reds also bolstered much of their roster in a move seemingly influenced by money.
Cincinnati flipped Homer Bailey and two prospects to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a deal that involved young catcher Kyle Farmer, outfielders Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig as well as starting pitcher Alex Wood. The last three are all rentals.
(The New York Post’s Joel Sherman reported in a tweet on December 21 that the Reds also added $7 million from the Dodgers in the transaction.)
The Reds did well to get out of Bailey’s deal in a move that pivots them towards contention, but at what cost?
What the moves cost/Will cost
Now to those two prospects.
Cincinnati surrendered infielder Jeter Downs and right-hander Josiah Gray in the transaction. Both are years away from the Majors, but they line up with the timeline of fellow lower-level minor leaguers in the Reds’ farm system like Taylor Trammell, Hunter Greene, Jonathan India, Jose Gutierrez and Tyler Stephenson.
Downs and Gray aren’t exactly Trammell and Greene, but they’re still quality, high-grade prospects.
Entering the season, Fangraphs ranked the duo eighth and 13th respectively among Cincinnati farmhands in a rankings published in early December. Baseball Prospectus had Gray as the organization’s 10th-best prospect as of mid-November. Meanwhile, Minor League Ball had the both of the prospects in Cincinnati’s top-10 in a piece published on November 21. Downs was eighth, Gray was 10th again.
The moral of the story is that they’re good prospects, from a good farm system that has spent years building up depth and quality.
And it’s unknown at this point what kind of players Downs or Grey will be in the Majors. It’s unclear if they’ll reach their ceilings or even reach the Majors. That’s simply the nature of prospects. But the Reds surrendered the duo and in return acquired four players. Three of whom could leave via free agency in a year’s time. Three of whom are unlikely to draw any kind of qualifying offer or draft pick compensation.
(One of the aforementioned Tanners, Tanner Roark that is, is also a free agent next winter, per Spotrac. He’s unlikely to draw a qualifying offer/draft pick compensation if he posts stats akin his 2018 numbers.)
It would be a different story if the Reds were on the door step of winning the division and were trying to push themselves over the line—or were simply on the doorstep of contending in general.
Those are worthy gambles to make in that situation.
But they aren’t on the doorstep of a division title, or on the doorstep of contending. At least not in the National League Central.
Will it work?
The 2019 National League Central appears to be one of MLB‘s toughest division, and were it not for the American League East, it’d likely be the runaway favorite for the toughest.
And the Reds finished bottom of the division by a significant margin (28.5 games behind the Brewers).
Speaking of Milwaukee, they’ve addeed Yasmani Grandal into the mix, bringing in the ex-Dodger will replace Manny Pina and Erik Kratz in a lineup that was on the verge of making it to the World Series.
There’s also the 95-win Cubs, who would shock absolutely no one if they signed Bryce Harper. St. Louis added Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller to the equation while Pittsburgh will get full seasons of Chris Archer and Keone Kela after acquiring the duo at last season’s trade deadline.
Even if the Reds can add someone like J.T. Realmuto to the mix, it’s no guarantee that they’ll be a contender. Even if Dick Williams can pull the trigger on Realmuto and sign a pitcher in the mold of Dallas Keuchel, the argument can be made that Cincinnati might not be in the top three teams in a loaded NL Central.
So, while the added value that the new additions will bring—adding 8.1 fWAR isn’t anything to scoff at, especially considering Bailey and his -0.2 fWAR were removed from the equation—it’s fair to wonder if things will work out, especially considering Cincinnati’s team fWAR numbers from 2018 compared to those from around the division.
Reds’ collective 2018 position player fWAR: 19.3
Reds’ collective 2018 pitcher fWAR: 6.2
That pales in comparison to the first-place Brewers.
Brewers’ collective 2018 position player fWAR: 26.6
Brewers’ collective 2018 pitcher fWAR: 16.4
As well as the third-place Cardinals.
Pirates’ collective 2018 position player fWAR: 25.1
Pirates’ collective 2018 pitcher fWAR: 14.8
There’re also player departures to consider. While the Reds bid adieu to both Bailey and infielder Brandon Dixon, who also sported a -0.2 fWAR, they also saw Matt Harvey (1.5 fWAR) and Billy Hamilton (1.3 fWAR) sign elsewhere in free agency.
They’re obviously not exact, like-for-like replacements. They all don’t even play the same positions as the four who joined the Reds this offseason, but when taking the fWARs of Bailey, Dixon, Harvey and Hamilton into account (along with the fWARs of the four ex-Dodgers and Roark), the Reds are only looking at a net gain of 5.5.
That’s decent, maybe even good. But not great. Especially considering the chasm between the Reds and the rest of the division.
Additionally, can some of the players currently on the Reds’ roster maintain their past success?
Regression Candidates?
Scooter Gennett paced all Cincinnati position players in fWAR last year with a 4.5 metric.
Can Gennett keep up his high-BABIP driven success? There’s no doubt that the infielder is a starting second baseman in the Majors, but can he turn in another 4.5 fWAR year, or thereabouts, in 2019?
The ex-Brewer’s BABIP jumped to a career-high .358 in 2018. He also posted career bests (in a full season) in wRC+, batting average and on-base percentage.
Matt Kemp had a bit of a late-career turnaround in 2018, notching his highest wRC+ (122) and wOBA (.348) since his first stint in Los Angeles. He also shored up his defense some. Kemp managed a -10.0 UZR/150, a -6 DRS and a -4.0 ARM in 516 innings in left field and a -4.0 UZR/150, a -3 DRS and a -1.3 ARM in right field. While not exactly Gold Glove-caliber, they represented Kemp’s best defensive outlays at the positions since, you guessed it, his first go-around in Los Angeles.
Can Kemp maintain his production or will his hitting and defense regress back to where he was with San Diego and Atlanta?
Gennett and Kemp figure to be to key players for the Reds next year. Will they play up to past levels?
The Gamble
Given the impending free agency of Puig, Wood, Kemp and Roark next winter, the gamble is all the more risky for the Reds.
Gennett too is a free agent after 2019.
In another year when the division wasn’t as stacked, perhaps the move would work much better. But given all the variables, it seems like it has a poor chance of ending with a playoff appearances.
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