The Chicago White Sox have been widely linked to Manny Machado this winter. Whether they sign the infielder or not, it’s been a no-lose offseason for the Sox.
The Chicago White Sox haven’t had a winning season since 2012. The 2012 season was also the last time Chicago made it to the 80-win mark. What’s more, the White Sox’ 62 wins in 2018 was their lowest win total this century. It was also the first time since 1976 that Chicago had failed to win at least 65 games.
The American League Central club also has just a singular playoff victory since winning the World Series in 2005.
Ok, I’m done.
You get it. Things haven’t been easy for the White Sox lately.
But things will get better in the Windy City in the near future. Much better.
Chicago has been masterful in extracting full value for players (see Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Todd Frazier, Tommy Kahnle and Adam Eaton) in various deals as well as adding players to eventually trade.
Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, Xavier Cedeno and Anthony Swarzak were all added by the Sox and then flipped for prospects. Other veterans to be moved for future assets in the last few years have included Dan Jennings, Melky Cabrera, Tyler Clippard, Miguel Gonzalez and Tyler Saladino.
Basically, if Chicago signed a veteran, there was a decent chance they’d eventually flip the player.
All that trade activity has resulted in one of the best farm systems in baseball—if not the best farm system outright.
If they live up to their ceilings, some combination of prospects Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal—not to mention current Major Leaguers Yoan Moncada, Reynaldo Lopez, Tim Anderson, Jace Fry, Aaron Bummer and Carlos Rodon—have the Sox set up for a bright future down the road.
Contending Now
But that future could arrive sooner rather than later. Jimenez could very well spend the bulk of 2019 in the Majors, and Cease might not be too far behind. Additionally, Chicago has been widely linked to both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper in the offseason rumor mill. If one or both land in the Windy City to join up with Jose Abreu and friends, the White Sox could make noise in a severely weakened American League Central.
Chicago has already seemingly built a semblance of a veteran core to both support a star player or two as well as supplement the organization’s young core.
Ivan Nova, Yonder Alonso and Alex Colome were added in under-the-radar trades with Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Seattle respectively.
Collectively, the White Sox only had to surrender prospects Yordi Rosario, and Alex Call, international bonus slot money and catcher Omar Narvaez.
Rosario just debuted in the Arizona League, while Call is a 24-year-old outfielder in Double-A. Both were buried on the organizational depth chart. Despite Narvaez leading all Chicago batters in fWAR last year, thanks in large part to a .348 wOBA and a 122 wRC+ in 322 plate appearances, there were some worrying defensive metrics in his overall statistics from last season.
The 5.7 Def is nice, but Narvaez turned in a -13 DRS and was baseball’s worst pitch framer according to Baseball Prospectus in 2018. Statcornerhad him ranked only above Kansas City’s Salvador Perez in terms of pitch framing.
Should Welington Castillo return to his 2017 form (114 wRC+, .344 wOBA) it should more than make up for Narvaez’ departure offensively. Similarly, James McCann—although not a perfect pitch framer—should be more of a defensive presence than the ex-Sox backstop was.
In return, Chicago collectively added Nova, Alonso and Colome.
That’s a 2.8 fWAR infusion into the team. And while that may not seem like a lot—especially considering Narvaez alone had a 2.1 fWAR—it means less of a reliance on other parts of the roster.
Nova will ease the burden on a rotation that relied too heavily on struggling arms like James Shields (204.2 IP, 0.8 fWAR, 5.09 FIP), Lucas Giolito (173.1 IP, -0.2 fWAR, 5.56 FIP) and Carson Fulmer (32.1 IP, -0.6 fWAR, 7.27 FIP).
Similarly, Alonso should be a more consistent option to split first base and designated hitter duties with Jose Abreu. Matt Davidson had his moments and did mash 20 home runs, but he also went down swinging 33.3% of the time and did the bulk of his damage against the Tigers and Royals.
Matt Davidson vs Detroit and Kansas City: 114 PA, 209 wRC+, .476 wOBA, .333 avg, .421 OBP, .727 Slug%, 1.148 OPS, .394 ISO, .379 BABIP, 12.3 BB%, 26.3 K%, 11 HR, 44.9% Hard-hit rate.
Matt Davidson vs the rest of MLB: 382 PA, 72 wRC+, .275 wOBA, .197 avg, .288 OBP, .328 Slug%, .616 OPS, .131 ISO, .294 BABIP, 9.9 BB%, 35.3 K%, 9 HR, 37.4% Hard-hit rate.
They’ve also added McCann, Kelvin Herrera and Jon Jay.
We’ve covered McCann, but Herrera gives the White Sox the foundation of a sturdy bullpen to lean on in 2019.
Along with the ex-Royal, Colome, Fry (51.1 IP, 2.67 FIP, 1.2 fWAR), Bummer (31.2 IP, 2.40 FIP, 0.7 fWAR) and Nate Jones (3.43 FIP, 10.18K/9 in 112.1 IP since 2016) the relief corps is in good hands.
Like Colome, who has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, per Spotrac, Herrera is more than just a short-term fix for in Chicago. According to a tweet from ESPN’s Jeff Passan on January 7, Herrera inked a two-year deal with Chicago. Per the same tweet, the reliever has a vesting third-year option.
A reliable bullpen will not only help keep the pressure off the White Sox’ young starters now, but it should also help the team close out games when they’re ready to contend.
Contending Later (read 2020)
Even if the White Sox don’t contend in 2019, striking out on both Machado and Harper, they’re still setup to potentially make a run at serious contention in 2020.
Alonso, Nova, McCann and Jay are all on one-year deals. If the White Sox are stuck in another losing year, the quartet is at worst place holders and veteran presences on a young team. At best, in a losing season, they’d be trade chips come July to stockpile more prospects. Prospects that could be traded for more Major League help down the line.
And because they aren’t long-term commitments, the White Sox can basically enter next winter with similar financial flexibility—if not more. Jose Abreu will be a free agent after the coming season and Castillo’s $8 million club option for 2020 includes a $500,000 buyout (per Spotrac).
At that point, the free agent won’t include multiple superstar position players in their primes like Machado and Harper, instead just the one in Nolan Arenado. It’s way too early to even speculate about Arenado and the White Sox, but third base isn’t as set long-term as say the outfield with Jimenez, Luis Robert and Blake Rutherford, or the middle infield with Moncada and Madrigal.
Chicago’s best third base prospect is Jake Burger, who while a quality prospect isn’t quite up there with the White Sox’ elite minor league talents.
Even if Arenado heads elsewhere, Anthony Rendon is similarly prolific as a batter and fielder at the hot corner. He too is set to be a free agent.
The rest of the free agent class could include the likes of Justin Verlander, old friend Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Aaron Hicks, Paul Goldschmidt, Khris Davis, Yasiel Puig, Nicholas Castellanos, Rick Porcello, Didi Gregorious and Josh Donaldson among others.
That’s plenty of options for the White Sox to augment their young core, especially considering Kopech should (ideally) be back from Tommy John surgery at some point in 2020.
Manny Machado or no, the White Sox can’t lose this winter.
They can take the step forward with the star infielder this next season, or wait until 2020 when their young talent
(Kopech’s injury seemed to slow the pace of Chicago’s rebuild somewhat) could be fully ready in order to make an impact addition of Machado’s caliber. Either way, they’ve set themselves up for success so far this winter without seriously impacting their future.
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