The 2018 American League Central was a case study in being
generally underwhelming.
All told, 60 percent of the teams, Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit, finished with three of the five worst records in baseball. Minnesota executed over the course of the season something that can only described as a faceplant.
After a surprise Wild Card birth in 2017 the Twins invested heavily in the free agent and trade markets, brining in Jake Odorizzi, Addison Reed, Lance Lynn and Fernando Rodney among others. Despite the additions, Minnesota managed a mere 78 wins, and saw many of the new additions Lynn, Rodney and Zach Duke among them, jettisoned via trade midseason.
Then there was Cleveland, a team featured four different starting pitchers with an fWAR over 4.0—not to mention the all-world infield duo of Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.
(Fun fact, Ramirez’ wRC+ went from 146 in 2017 to… 146 in 2018 despite seeing his BABIP fall from .319 in 2017 to .252 in 2018.)
For all that talent—we’re not even mentioning, among others, Michael Brantley, Shane Bieber and Edwin Encarnacion—and playing in what was clearly baseball’s worst division, Cleveland finished with just 91 wins. Their +170 run differential, fifth best in baseball, tells a slightly different story, but you’d expect any other American League juggernaut thrown into the Central to come away with much more than 91 victories.
So yeah, underwhelming.
And guess what? Things could get even more underwhelming in 2019.
Which is a curious statement given that thanks to some offseason maneuvering the division has gotten more competitive on the whole. But it’s true. The American League Central could be even more underwhelming next year.
Cleveland
Cleveland, winners of the last three division titles, has operated with a budget well below their league-rivals in New York and Boston.
Apparently, that budget wasn’t getting any higher. The organization’s moves this offseason have shed some serious cash off the team’s payroll, with Yan Gomes and Yonder Alonso were both flipped for minor leaguers while Edwin Encarnacion and Yandy Diaz were flipped for Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers.
Add in the departures of Brantley, Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, Josh Donaldson, Lonnie Chisenhall, Oliver Perez and Brandon Guyer and the financial outlook is significantly different.
But so too is the roster construction.
Net outgoing fWAR: 10.3
Net incoming fWAR: 2.7
The offseason isn’t by any means completed, and the team could use the net savings gained from saying goodbye to the likes of Encarnacion, Brantley and Alonso on upgrades elsewhere, but if Cleveland doesn’t make any more major moves before Spring Training they’ll have some serious deficiencies to address mid-season.
As it stands, the division’s best team has taken a significant step back. They might still be the favorites to repeat, but it’s the definition of tentative at this point in time due to
Minnesota
The Twins could, on paper, take down Cleveland. If Byron Buxton bounces back, Max Kepler and Jose Berrios take steps forward and new additions Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron play to past form, Rocco Baldelli’s squad has the requisite talent to dethrone a weakened Cleveland roster.
But the reality is that even if all of that plays out in the Twins’ favor, Minnesota still isn’t as good of a team on paper than the 2018 incarnation of Cleveland.
And given the keeping up with the Joneses dynamic among contenders, it puts the Twins miles behind the eight ball compared to the Red Sox, Astros and Yankees, as well as the A’s and Rays.
If their rotation and bullpen get a clean bill of health, you can even make the argument that the Angels could sneak into the Wild Card hunt.
You can also make the argument that the best team in the American League Central could be the sixth or seventh-best team in the junior circuit, and people wouldn’t look at you like you just spewed out some crazy theory. Which tells you pretty much everything you need to know about the division.
Regarding the rest
Chicago
Things could change in a hurry for the White Sox, especially if they’re able to reel in one or both of Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.
Chicago has been aggressive in adding MLB pieces to compliment their young core so far, with Alex Colome, Alonso, Ivan Nova and James McCann coming aboard.
We can talk about them being contenders for the division title if they add one or both of those superstar players, but if both head elsewhere, the Sox are staring at another development year.
The 2020 campaign might be a better time to launch into contention as Eloy Jimenez and potentially Dylan Cease will be fully adjusted to the big leagues while Michael Kopech could join Cease in the rotation at some point.
The additions of Colome and the other veterans certainly help, but with the roster currently as is, the Sox are lagging behind both Cleveland and the Twins.
Detroit and Kansas City
Detroit and Kansas City remain… Detroit and Kansas City.
The Tigers played above their punching weight well into the season with a 26-30 record and a -17-run differential through May 31st. At that point, Detroit was just 4.5 games back of Cleveland. That might speak more of the division’s overall struggles, but Ron Gardenhire deserves credit for coaxing that kind of play out of the roster he was handed.
The Tigers fell back to earth afterward, finishing 64-98 with a -166 run differential.
Detroit’s offseason to date has been a bit like last year’s activity. In the winter months leading up to the 2018 regular season, Al Avila and company signed three veterans to Major League deals. A position player (Leonys Martin) and two starting pitchers (Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano).
All three acted as stop gaps with Martin and Fiers eventually being flipped for prospects in July and August.
So far this winter, the Tigers have signed a position player (Jordy Mercer) and two starting pitchers (Tyson Ross and Matt Moore). All three could be on the move as the season progresses. At a certain point, Detroit will stop playing the waiting game with stop-gaps and stat to accelerate the rebuild.
But that probably won’t be until next winter at the earliest.
Detroit will very likely spend the rest of the offseason and the ensuing regular season trying to find trade takers for Ross, Moore, Mercer, Nicholas Castellanos and potentially Shane Greene and Matthew Boyd.
That group of in-season trade candidates could expand depending on what the Tigers do with the rest of the offseason. It wouldn’t be a shock to see another outfielder added if Castellanos is moved. There’s also a vacancy at second base and an extra reliever or two wouldn’t hurt. Any veterans added on short-term deals could be dealt for prospects over the summer.
Most of those potential signings would probably be in the mold of Ross or Mercer and wouldn’t be multi-year deals.
Detroit once again seems set to play the waiting game again in 2019 as many of their prospects reach the upper minors. 2020 seems the more likely target for them to take some kind of a step forward as Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Isaac Paredes and Daz Cameron should all be in the Majors by that point.
The 2021 season might be more realistic for contending, but the Tigers can at least dream on a winning roster in 2020 when their prospects will start adjusting to the Majors.
For now, they’re working with a significant number of stop-gap options and placeholders.
The Royals
Kansas City is a different story entirely.
Yes, the Royals won a World Series recently, but the other years of contending has taken its toll on Kansas City’s farm system. Those win-now trades teams make to go for it and try and reach the postseason? Yeah, Dayton Moore and friends are paying for them now.
The Royals’ best prospects are currently adjusting to the lower levels of the minor leagues and it may be that most of their current young nucleus is a placeholder group for another placeholder group.
Of the organization’s top 20 prospects, according to MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline, just five have advanced past Advanced-A, with many finishing 2018 in Single-A.
Many of Minnesota’s best young players in terms of ceiling (Buxton, Berrios and Kepler) are largely in the Majors. Key pieces of Chicago’s future nucleus are in-and-around Triple-A, nearly ready to break through to the big leagues in the near future. Detroit’s is a step behind, with many elite prospects in Double-A with the Erie SeaWolves.
Kansas City’s rebuild is… well let’s just say its miles behind their division rivals. The Royals did well to extract prospects for Jon Jay and had a largely successful draft, but other trades like the Kelvin Herrera and Mike Moustakas deals weren’t ideal for the rebuilding club.
Hindsight is 20-20 but the return for Herrera looks on the lighter side of things. Meanwhile, the return for Moustakas (Brett Phillips and Jorge Lopez) was a quality return in a vacuum, but both fit more Minnesota or Chicago’s rebuilding timeline than Kanas City’s. They too could end up simply being placeholders for the next generation of prospects.
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