Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager has had a down season in 2018, but could still hold trade value. Should the M’s consider trading him this offseason?
If you’ve lived under a rock for the past few years, you probably failed to notice that Jerry Dipoto likes making trades.
Like a lot.
Since taking over as Mariners general manager in 2015, Dipoto has made over 60 trades. In fact, you can build an entire MLB team out of the players he’s flipped.
No really, it’s true.
Whether or not Seattle makes the postseason this year remains to be seen. But you can be sure Dipoto will be active in the winter months.
Whether Seattle misses October baseball and Dipoto makes more moves to try and get them into the playoffs, or if the team makes the postseason and Dipoto is aggressive in adding pieces to make it further in the playoffs, the M’s are a seemingly surefire bet to make trades.
Unfortunately, Dipoto is running on empty where trade assets are concerned.
The Mariners’ farm system is arguably the worst in baseball. While Kyle Lewis, Logan Gilbert and Evan White could be packaged to go after a prominent piece, it might be best served to hang on to most of the group.
There’s a glaring rotation issue that needs addressing, not to mention a host of free agent, complimentary pieces (Adam Warren, Cameron Maybin, Zach Duke, the injured David Phelps, Andrew Romine and Gordon Beckham) that will need replacing if they aren’t re-signed.
Nelson Cruz isn’t a complimentary piece, but the M’s are in a similar boat with him in terms of having to replace him if he isn’t re-signed.
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Plus, this is all without mentioning any upgrades that are needed.
Addressing those needs only brings the M’s back to even in terms of the 2018 roster.
A razor-thin farm system and comparatively less financial flexibility could force Dipoto to shop in the wrong aisle entirely this offseason.
He should be shopping on the aisle that features high-end, impact players, but could be forced to once again return to the bargain aisle and take fliers on players with past success and less than ideal contracts like he did with Mike Leake and Dee Gordon last winter.
While those moves haven’t been entirely unsuccessful (Leake has a 2.0 fWAR and a 4.07 FIP), they also haven’t been perfect.
Leake has served as Seattle’s de facto ace with James Paxton on the shelf. He should be more of a fourth or fifth option on another playoff team, but Seattle’s rotation shortcomings have pushed him higher up the rotation.
What’s more, Gordon continues to sit on a minuscule 1.6 walk rate—he’s drawn four more walks than you have this season— and is sporting a 0.2 fWAR and a 75 wRC+.
Those aren’t exactly the kind of moves that scream “let’s overtake the Astros.”
Being forced to return to that particular aisle for his offseason shopping for the second straight year could leave Dipoto and company looking up at not only Houston, but also Oakland by the time 2019 rolls around.
Of course, ownership could sanction more big-money deals, but if the M’s operate with a similar budget in 2019, they could be in trouble in terms of adding pieces.
They certainly don’t have the prospects to get younger, cheap talent like J.T. Realmuto, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, or Michael Fulmer, so they might have to pony up the Benjamins in one way or another to add.
Which brings me in a long roundabout way to the topic of trading Kyle Seager.
Trading Kyle Seager
Seattle’s third baseman for much of the last decade is in the midst of a down season at the plate. His second such campaign in the last two years in fact.
Seager has once again reached the 20 home run plateau, but homers aren’t everything and his OBP (.270), .wOBA (.288) and wRC+ (83) have all dropped to dangerous levels.
His walk rate (5.7%) and ISO (.184) have also taken a tumble while his strikeouts have risen to a 20.9 K% that is on track to be the worst of his career.
Some of that is in part due to lower BABIP (.243) than usual, but Seager tends to operate with a lower BABIP in his career, with a lifetime .281 BABIP.
The third baseman has still provided quality defense, with an 8.3 defensive runs above average, but that’s hardly the overall play a team wants from one of its highest-paid players.
Per Spotrac, Seager is making $18.5 million this year, $19 million in each of the next two seasons and $18 million in 2021—there’s also a $15 million team option for 2022.
The Mariners will have to pay scheduled raises to Gordon, Segura, Wade LeBlanc, Felix Hernandez and Juan Nicasio as well as arbitration raises for Paxton, Mike Zunino, Alex Colome, Nick Vincent and Erasmo Ramirez next season.
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That’s a lot of money incoming and Seattle may find it prudent to trade Seager for relatively cheaper help at a position of need.
While the veteran’s contract isn’t ideal in terms of his trade value, the 30-year-old is just a year removed from a six-year stretch in which he rattled off a 25.5 fWARs from 2012 to 2017, good for 12th-best in the Majors during that time.
So, there’s a track record be had that could help Seager’s tradability. It’s also possible that a team could view Seager as the position-player equivalent of Tyler Chatwood last season.
Chatwood was routinely hit hard at the launching pad that is Coors Field in his home starts with the Rockies from 2012 to 2017 but showed much better on the road.
His on-base percentage and wOBA against were both nearly .100 points lower on the road than they were at home in each of his last two seasons with the Rockies.
Tyler Chatwood in 2016 on the road: 80 IP, 286 OBB, .253 wOBA.
Tyler Chatwood in 2017 on the road: 70.1 IP, .299 OBP, .297 wOBA.
Tyler Chatwood in 2016 at home: 78 IP, .375 OBP, .374 wOBA.
Tyler Chatwood in 2017 at home: 77.1 IP, .395 OBP, .381 wOBA.
That’s obviously not an airtight analogy as Chatwood has struggled mightily with the Cubs after joining Chicago as a free agent last winter.
However, much of Chatwood’s ineffectiveness with the Cubs might be more self-inflicted as his walk rates have spiked exponentially.
Regardless, Seager has a similar problem to the hurler in that his production tanks at home.
Behold! The third baseman’s career splits:
Kyle Seager career at Safeco Field: .320 wOBA, 109 wRC+, .157 ISO, .249 avg, .328 OBP, 406 slugging%, .733 OPS, 9.5 BB%, 17.5 K%.
Kyle Seager career on the road: .342 wOBA, 116 wRC+, .208 ISO, .267 avg, .323 OBP, .475 slugging%, .799 OPS, 7.1 BB%, 16.8 K%.
Plugging Seager into a more offensive-friendly hitting environment like Coors Field, or even a more middle-of-the-road stadium could help his offensive come to life again.
Trade Possibilities
Unfortunately, the market isn’t going to be flush with contenders searching for third base upgrades.
Atlanta would have been a perfect fit for Seager and the Mariners in a trade were it not for the long-term presence of Austin Riley. Ditto Boston and Rafael Devers.
Year one of the Colin Moran experiment in Pittsburgh hasn’t been a smashing success, but the Pirates seem unlikely to tack on Seager’s contract.
If the White Sox want to jumpstart the organization’s rebuild significantly, Seager would be a definite upgrade over Yolmer Sanchez. Fellow American League Central club Minnesota could also be a fit if an upgrade over Miguel Sano is required.
But all those fits are half-decent at best.
Moving down the list of half-decent fits, we arrive at a familiar locale, Coors Field.
The Rockies aren’t an obvious fit thanks to Nolan Arenado at third base, you may have heard of him.
While Colorado is currently just one game back of Arizona in the National League West standings, the Rockies will have to deal with the Diamondbacks as well as the Dodgers in 2019.
They’re also staring at the potential loss of Arenado next winter.
According to Spotrac, the 27-year-old has one more year of arbitration eligibility left before he becomes free agent eligible.
Colorado could very well back up the truck in the same way they did with Charlie Blackmon and try and retain Arenado.
While it remains to be seen if the organization will do that, what is clear is that if Arenado departs, it would significantly dent Colorado’s chances at contending.
Would the Rockies consider trading Arenado for Seager and one of Seattle’s best prospects like Kyle Lewis?
Ok, so the trade doesn’t solve Seattle’s financial outlook in the short-term, and it doesn’t help the rotation at all. But you could do a lot worse than an Arenado/James Paxton/Edwin Diaz/Mitch Haniger/Jean Segura core in terms of trying to run down the Astros and/or A’s.
That group could not only challenge Houston in the American League West, but also the Red Sox and Yankees for the American League pennant.
What’s more, gambling on a year of Arenado certainly seems like a Dipoto-esque move. It’s obviously worth it if they can re-sign him. It might also be worth it if Seattle can make a World Series run with Arenado only to see him depart after one year.
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If the Mariners were another franchise, there should be obvious hesitancy with this proposed deal. However, Seattle hasn’t tasted postseason baseball since 2003 and have never been to a World Series. Ever.
Even if Arenado is a pure rental, making a deep October run with him in tow could be worth it for the fanbase.
The hypothetical trade is also dependent on Colorado deciding that they can’t re-sign Arenado and flipping him for value while they can. That’s key.
Seager certainly isn’t the same player, but in Coors Field he could regain his offensive form and be a 3-5 win player for the foreseeable future.
Considering Colorado hasn’t attracted marquee free agents not named Wade Davis in years past, adding a player in Seager who is under contract through 2021 (per Sptorac) could be plenty appealing.
Adding a blue chip prospect in Lewis certainly doesn’t hurt either.
Should the Nationals fall into a similar situation with Anthony Rendon, then a deal akin to the proposed Arenado swap would make sense as well.
Trading Kyle Seager for pitching help
The problem with this scenario is that most starting pitchers on hefty contracts are either pitching to a high standard and are deserving of those contracts (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw) or are nowhere near productive (Alex Cobb, Ian Kennedy and Chatwood).
There’s little middle ground, which makes finding a fit in a Seager trade difficult.
Under different circumstances, a Seager/Danny Duffy swap would be interesting, but Kansas City is better off trying to rebuild Duffy’s value at this point and Seager makes little sense for the rebuilding Royals.
There aren’t many teams who’d give up controllable, young pitchers for Seager either.
One of the few teams that could make sense is San Diego.
The Padres added Eric Hosmer ahead of the season and seem set on returning to contention sooner rather than later. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Urias are close to taking over at shortstop and second base respectively. In fact, Urias was just promoted to the Majors from Triple-A. Meanwhile, Francisco Mejia could fill in at a number of different positions starting as early as next week.
Trading for Seager would fit into the same category as Hosmer in terms of an aggressive move to kick the rebuild into overdrive.
An infield quartet of Seager, Hosmer, Tatis Jr. and Urias would certainly be a more-than stable base to build upon.
In terms of starting pitching that San Diego would part with, 2018 breakout Joey Lucchesi seems out of the question, but Jacob Nix or 2016 first-round pick Cal Quantrill could be fits.
Both are well-regarded prospects and should be ready for extended Major League looks in 2019.
If Seattle can acquire one of the two along with third baseman Christian Villanueva and prospect Josh Naylor, it could be a win-win.
Nix or Quantrill could immediately slot into the 2019 rotation, while Villanueva would give the M’s an insurance policy at third base alongside Robinson Cano, who’s still learning the position.
The 27-year-old won’t be eligible for arbitration for another year, according to Spotrac, and is sporting a 1.2 fWAR, a .214 ISO and a 105 wRC+ in 384 plate appearances this year.
Down the line, Naylor would at worst give Seattle a better compliment to Ryon Healy at first base. At best, he’d overtake the former A’s player on the depth chart.
The former Miami prospect is blocked at first base in San Diego by Hosmer long term, and with a glut of outfielders potentially standing in his way, he may very well be expendable.
San Diego’s current financial structure makes absorbing all of Seager’s deal a possibility for them. Hosmer and Myers are the only two non arbitration-eligible players signed past the 2019 season. In other words, there’s plenty of financial flexibility.
In the event that this hypothetical trade occurs, and Seattle has any money left over following the arbitration and contract raises, they should look to reinvest it into the free agent market.
There’s plenty of starters who could be appealing, ranging from frontline options and mid-rotation options like Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Nathan Eovaldi to intriguing bounce-back candidates like Gio Gonzalez and Drew Pomeranz.
In Conclusion
Trading Kyle Seager won’t be easy. His contract could be bothersome in negotiations as teams may simply opt for cheaper and more versatile options on the free agent market like Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera.
Still, with better showings down the stretch, Seager’s trade value could return to the point where the Seattle Mariners could move him. If that’s a possibility, it might be prudent to explore a trade.
