The Miami Marlins aren’t going to be good any time soon, but they seem to have something in starting pitcher Jose Urena. The question is, is Urena a building block or a trade chip?
Miami Marlins starter Jose Urena had a 2017 season that was hit and miss.
At first glance, his 14 wins and a 3.82 ERA suggest a solid season. But on the other hand, his 5.20 FIP, league-leading 14 hit batters and a mere 5.99 strikeouts per nine innings suggest otherwise.
(Starting pitcher wins can be perhaps the most misleading stat in baseball, while ERA doesn’t paint the whole picture).
It also didn’t help that Urena also walked 3.39 batters per nine frames.
Still, for all its warts, Urena’s 2017 stat line represented a significant step forward. He amassed a career-high 169.2 frames spread over 34 appearances (28 starts) and registered a career-low WHIP (1.273) at least where the Majors are concerned.
2018
Urena has continued to build off that success in 2018, improving across the board from a statistical standpoint.
His strikeout numbers, swinging strike percentage included, are up, while his walk rate has taken a nose dive from 8.8% to 5.9%.
With that, and a decrease in home runs allowed, Urena has lowered his run prevention numbers.
His ERA is currently sitting at 4.41 following 12 starts (69.1 frames) and both his FIP (3.99) and SIERA (3.89) are south of 4.00.
He also has the 11th-best ground ball rate among starters this season with a 51.7% metric.
Urena has been particularly impressive over his last seven outings, dating back to April 27.
Jose Urena from 4/27 to 5/30: 7 GS, 43.1 IP, 7.68 K/9, 1.66 BB/9, 1.04 HR/9, 3.53 ERA, 3.68 FIP and a 53.3% ground ball rate.
The 26-year-old may not be an ace-level starter around the Majors, but he’s been a bright spot for a young Miami team.
The question now becomes, what is he to the Miami Marlins? Is he a building block or a trading chip?
Building Block vs Trade Chip
On one hand, pairing Urena with Caleb Smith and Sandy Alcantara would give the Fish a decent base to build around not just in the rotation, but on the Major League roster as a whole.
On the other, it might make more sense to trade the right-hander now.
Per Spotrac, the starter is controllable for three more seasons beyond 2018 via arbitration.
If the past few seasons have taught us anything, it’s that teams love acquiring controllable players. And a controllable Urena would certainly fetch a decent haul of prospect if he can continue his recent success.
The Future
That haul of prospects could help Miami have a prosperous future down the line.
As it stands, it doesn’t seem as if the likes of J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour and Starlin Castro will be on the next great Marlins.
Instead, the team seems better set to contend when the likes of Alcantara, Jorge Guzman, Monte Harrison, Jorge Guzman and Nick Neidert join Lewis Brinson as full time, Major League regulars.
That’s a decent core to build around for the future. However, more talent is going to be needed.
This is especially true considering Philadelphia and Atlanta are starting to take shape as long term divisional juggernauts.
Miami needs all the prospect help it can get, so trading away anyone not named Brinson or Smith should be considered.
Players like Castro and Wei-Yin Chen will be hard to move from a salary standpoint, while there isn’t an overflowing list of teams who have needs at the positions Realmuto and Bour play.
Because of that, Urena might be Miami’s best trade chip from a positional-demand standpoint. Most teams could probably do with an extra starting pitcher capable of firing off quality innings.
Miami should look to cash in.
Also, Saving Money
Given his recent success, Urena probably will only get more expensive to retain as his arbitration years tick away.
The Marlins have been, in a few words, cost conscious since Derek Jeter and company took over. So while it may be a minor point, dealing Jose Urena before his salary rises via arbitration could be an added bonus to moving the starter.
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