Down is up and up is down in the American League Central so far in 2018. Cleveland’s bullpen is imploding, the Tigers are perched near the top of the standings and the Twins are fighting to break .500. It’s been baseball’s strangest division in the early goings.
Welcome to the American League Central, MLB’s strangest division so far
The American League Central wasn’t expected to be one of baseball’s strongest divisions in 2018.
What with the White Sox still waiting for their prospects to develop, Kansas City adjusting to life without Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain and Detroit embarking on a rebuild, the division wasn’t going to be the most competitive.
That title could be the American League West’s with the defending champion Astros and strong playoff contenders in Anaheim and Seattle.
The title also could be the National League Central, where four teams (sorry Cincinnati) are playoff worthy at this point in the season.
The argument could also be made for the similarly-crowded National League West or even the top-heavy American League East.
But not the American League Central.
Having two of the league’s worst teams will do that for you.
It also doesn’t help that division-leading Cleveland is only 20-21 and the only team in the division with a positive run differential.
But for all that, the division has perhaps been the strangest in baseball in 2018, where down is up and up is down.
Kansas City Royals
What was once a definite strength, or at least a reliable unit, for the Royals is no more.
Rebuilding clubs don’t exactly tend to be rich in bullpen pieces—when they do they usually trade them—but Kansas City’s bullpen has cratered significantly.
Gone are the days of Wade Davis, Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera pitching in succession and shutting down games and arrived are the days of, well just Herrera pitching at the end of contests.
The Royals’ bullpen ranked fifth in the league in fWAR from 2014 to 2017.
This year, things have been a bit different.
Kansas City’s relief corps currently sit dead-last in fWAR with a collective -0.8 number. The unit is also missing bats an alarmingly-low rate, with just 6.43 strikeouts per nine frames and a 9.2 swinging strike percentage. Both are the worst metrics in the league by a significant margin.
With six of the organization’s seven to reliever’s in fWAR from 2017 no longer with the organization, it’s left Herrera and little else as reliable options for Ned Yost.
Chicago White Sox
Ok, so the White Sox aren’t exactly surprising anyone.
In the midst of a lengthy rebuild, Chicago entered play on Wednesday with a 10-28 record and an American League-worst -74 run differential.
What has been perhaps the most surprising, though, about Chicago’s start has been a bullpen that hasn’t been awful.
White Sox starting pitchers are 29th in collective fWAR and have the highest FIP in baseball. Meanwhile, Chicago hitters are striking out at the 24th-highest rate and have scored the second-fewest runs, ahead of only the Marlins.
Unlike Kansas City’s underwhelming bullpen, the White Sox relievers have been somewhat dependable.
Led by former Royal/Tiger Joakim Soria, the group is 19th in fWAR and 13th in K/9.
It hasn’t been perfect—Chicago’s bullpen has the joint-highest WHIP—but organization ahs done relatively well with a largely new unit.
Last season, 17 different relievers through at least 10 innings for the White Sox. Of that group, eight are no longer with the organization while just four (Chris Beck, Gregory Infante, Nate Jones and Aaron Bummer) are still on the Major League roster.
Minnesota Twins
Here’s where things get interesting.
Minnesota should be better than their 18-20 record states, and perhaps they are with a 7-3 mark in the team’s last 10 games. However, the fact remains that Minnesota’s season hasn’t gone to plan.
Heading into the year, the argument could have been made that there was a changing of the guard waiting to happen atop the American League Central standings.
Cleveland will see a number of impact players become free agents this winter, while the up-and-coming Twins—fresh off a Wild Card berth—added Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison, Addison Reed and Fernando Rodney to a burgeoning core that includes Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios.
The new additions haven’t exactly set the world on fire in their first few months with the Twins.
Jake Odorizzi: 48.1 IP, 5.08 FIP
Lance Lynn: 34.1 IP, 7.34 ERA
Logan Morrison: 140 PA, .146 ISO, .285 wOBA
Addison Reed: 21.1 IP, 3.43 FIP, 10.8% SwStr%
Fernando Rodney: 14.2 IP, 4.93 FIP, 1.43 WHIP
Combine those performances with injuries to Ervin Santana and Buxton and slow starts from Sano and Dozier and you see why the Twins aren’t overtaking Cleveland.
That could still happen, obviously, but for a Minnesota team that won more than 80 games just once in the six seasons prior to 2017, the early returns haven’t been great.
Cleveland
Speaking of Cleveland, Ohio’s American League franchise hasn’t been the juggernaut that they have been in the past.
Despite torrid starts from Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor, the team is a game under .500 and should they lose on Wednesday, they’d fall into a tie with the Tigers atop the division standings.
After finishing behind only the defending champion Astros and the slugging Yankees in wRC+, Cleveland is sixth in the metric this season.
However, the offensive play from Ramirez and Lindor are papering over some troubling starts at the dish for a number of veterans in Terry Francona’s lineup.
Jason Kipnis has the third-lowest wRC+ of all qualified hitters in the Majors, while Brandon Guyer, Rajai Davis and Roberto Perez are all sporting wRC+ metrics below 55.
Elsewhere, Yonder Alonso isn’t proving to be the same on-base threat that Carlos Santana was at first base with a .291 OBP.
On the pitching side of things, Cleveland’s starters have been solid (seventh in fWAR). But the bullpen, well, the bullpen hasn’t been so solid. The word implosion might just apply.
The normally lights out Cleveland bullpen is sporting a league-worst 5.73 ERA and the second-worst collective fWAR total at -0.3.
fWAR, and certainly not ERA, isn’t everything when it comes to breaking down a team or players, but it doesn’t help that Andrew Miller and company also rank in the bottom 10 in strikeout percentage (22nd), WHIP (25th) FIP (29th), strand rate (29th) and HR/9 (30th).
Replacing Bryan Shaw, Joe Smith and Boone Logan hasn’t exactly been a cake walk either. Outside of Miller, Cody Allen and Tyler Olson, there hasn’t been much in the way of consistency, with the likes of Nick Goody, Zach McAllister and Matt Belisle having struggled in extended action.
What’s more, if the organization’s early struggles continue, it could spell the beginning of the end of the franchise’ stint as a legitimate World Series contender.
Miller, Allen, Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Tomlin, McAllister and Davis are all free agents following the season.
It obviously remains to be seen if the organization will re-sign any of the group.
However, considering how they’ve failed to adequality bring in replacements for the likes of Shaw, Santana and others and sport one of baseball’s thinnest farm system, the championship window might just begin to creep shut.
Detroit Tigers
If the early season struggles of Cleveland and Minnesota have been surprising, then Detroit’s start has been a downright shock to the system.
Picked by many to finish among baseball’s worst teams, the Tigers are flying in the face of expectations, sitting at 19-22 entering play on Wednesday.
Ron Gardenhire has gotten the most out of his team so far, getting strong performances from younger players like Jeimer Candelario, Nicholas Castellanos Joe Jimenez, JaCoby Jones, Matt Boyd, John Hicks, Niko Goodrum and Buck Farmer.
Much of Detroit’s future core is still developing in the minors, but it’s been a definite positive for the organization to see the likes of Candelario, Jones, Boyd and Farmer start to make good on their potential.
Perhaps the most surprising trend has been the strides Detroit has made on the field and on the base paths.
From 2011 to 2017, the Tigers ranked dead last in BsR (-123) and 17th in defensive runs above average (-46.5).
So far in 2018, the club is second only to the Cubs with a 4.9 BsR and is seventh in defensive runs above average.
The Tigers’ new scrappy, grind-it-out brand of baseball has helped the club punch above their weight so far.
Moving forward, any more encouraging developments for Detroit will be positives and help accentuate the rebuilding process with so much promising talent at Double-A and Triple-A.
