At first glance, a 9-11 record and a third-place standing in the team’s division doesn’t exactly smack of a best-case scenario start to a campaign.
Yet that’s exactly the kind of start the Detroit Tigers are having.
Under new manager Ron Gardenhire, Detroit has employed a scrappy and gritty brand of baseball that has led to plenty of close games, come backs, walk-offs and a +4 run differential that is only bested in the American League Central by Cleveland.
The Tigers have been in nearly every game they’ve lost so far, with just two of the squad’s 11 losses coming by more than three runs.
Gardenhire’s team has nearly always had a shot to tie or win the game in the bottom of the ninth, in part thanks to a much-evolved roster.
Widely picked to be among baseball’s worst teams in 2018 alongside cellar-dwellers in Miami, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and San Diego thanks to a roster deprived of the elite veteran talent that made the organization perennial World Series contenders in years past, these Tigers are a younger bunch with a different brand of baseball.
Some veterans remain in Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Jose Iglesias and offseason additions Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano, but Detroit’s youth has taken center stage in 2018 and it’s the main reason the club’s start has been so promising.
Let’s be clear, the Tigers might not even sniff the edges of a crowded Wild Card race, but in the context of a rebuild, the early returns this season have been encouraging.
Youth
In the first half of the 2017 season, Detroit relied heavily on veterans. The team’s top performer in terms of fWAR was left fielder Justin Upton. Second baseman Ian Kinsler ranked second, while right fielder J.D. Martinez was sixth despite logging just 232 plate appearances before being dealt to the Diamondbacks.
In fact, of all position players to don a Detroit Tigers uniform since 2014, Kinsler, Martinez and Upton rank first, third and fourth among position players in fWAR.
Replacing them wasn’t going to be easy, but Detroit has potentially found some long-term pieces to succeed the veterans.
Upton’s replacement in left field has perhaps been the most impactful so far.
JaCoby Jones joined the organization as a toolsy prospect from the Pittsburgh Pirates in a 2015 deal that sent Joakim Soria to the Bucs.
A former shortstop, Jones didn’t get off to the best start with Detroit the past two years. He logged 28 plate appearances in 2016 and 154 last year.
His wRC+ in each season finished at 34, while his wOBA never eclipsed the .230 mark. Jones also whiffed at an unhealthy rate, going down on strikes 42.9% of the time in his first taste of Major League action, while striking out in 42.2% of his plate appearances in 2017.
However, what remained consistent was the 25-year-old’s ability to make an impact defensively and on the base paths.
Despite the limited playing time, the ex-Pirate farmhand finished third in UZR/150 among Tigers outfielders from 2016 to 2017 and eighth in BsR among position players.
Now, Jones’ offense has started to come around.
It’s still early—which obviously is a statement to keep in mind throughout this entire column— but the outfielder is a completely different player at the dish.
Things are slowing down for Jones, whose plate discipline is markedly better. His plate discipline metrics have improved across the board, including strikeout rate has plummeted to 19.1%.
And when he does swing at and hit the ball, there’s a decent chance he tattooed it. According to Fangraphs, among hitters with at least 40 plate appearances, Jones ranks 28th in the league in hard-hit percentage with a 46.2% metric, just percentage points behind the likes of Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton.
What’s more, the former third-round pick is flashing the power-speed combination that made him such an intriguing prospect.
He’s collected seven runs scored, five RBI, three stolen bases and a pair of home runs to go along with a .220 ISO and a 1.0 BsR.
Jones’ other stats look like the following.
JaCoby Jones 2018 offensive metrics sampling: 137 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .874 OPS, .293 batting average, .362 on-base percentage, .512 slugging percentage.
The LSU product has also been at the forefront of Detroit’s newfound baserunning ability.
With a younger roster, the team is running more. The outfielder currently paces the team in BsR, a metric that the Tigers currently rank fourth in the Majors in.
Alongside Niko Goodrum, Victor Reyes and Dixon Machado, Jones has help transform the Tigers into one of the league’s better baserunning units.
Dixon Machado
Speaking of Machado, he too has stepped into a position vacated by a veteran and shown well.
His long-term home is likely at shortstop, where his glove and bat will play well, leaving second base open for a prospect like Dawel Lugo or (eventually) Isaac Paredes.
However, with Jose Iglesias still under contract for the rest of the year, Machado has stepped in for Kinsler at the keystone.
At first glance, some of his offensive metrics don’t catch the eye. His wRC+ is sitting at 72, while his on-base percentage is currently .269. Machado’s wOBA is just .280.
Still, the infielder has been unlucky, with a .233 BABIP that is .053 points below his career norm.
Like Jones, he’s been crushing the baseball.
Per the same Fangraphs leaderboard, Only 12 players have a higher hard-hit percentage. Among the names below Machado include Eric Thames, Robinson Cano and the aforementioned Trout-Donaldson-Stanton troika.
Despite the low-BABIP, this has resulted in the second-most doubles in baseball behind Ozzie Albies and should he continue to keep hitting the ball hard, they’ll start falling for more hits.
It’s been a strong start for Machado, who has struggled in previous stints with the Tigers, but has a solid track record at Triple-A.
Long-term, if he can replicate somewhat similar numbers at shortstop, the Detroit Tigers will be in excellent shape.
Nicholas Castellanos and Jeimer Candelario
Ok, so Nicholas Castellanos isn’t exactly your typical young player from an experience standpoint. The 26-year-old Castellanos has plenty of it and has been a fixture in the Motor City since debuting in the midst of the team’s pennant chase in 2013.
He’s essentially replaced J.D. Martinez as Detroit’s right fielder as well as primary run producer not named Miguel Cabrera or Victor Martinez.
In fact, Castellanos is second in the American League in hard-hit percentage this season behind—you guessed it—J.D. Martinez.
The former first-round pick has already brought his fWAR (0.5) to a third of what it was in his breakout year last season.
That’s in part to some improved displays in right field as he’s transitioned to the position full time. However, it’s also due to an uptick in offensive production. He’s settled in nicely behind Cabrera as Detroit’s cleanup hitter and hasn’t disappointed with a .360 wOBA and a 125 wRC+ in 88 plate appearances.
Castellanos’ move to right field to replace Martinez has opened up third base for another potential long-term cog in Jeimer Candelario.
Acquired from the Cubs with Paredes for Justin Wilson and Alex Avila, Candelario impressed in his first extended taste of big-league action in 2017.
Now, he’s producing nearly identical numbers in 2018 with a lower BABIP and higher OPS, ISO, wRC+ and wOBA marks in fewer plate appearances.
Jeimer Candelario in 2017: 0.5 fWAR, 142 PA, .351 BABIP, 9.2 BB%, 21.1 K%, .142 ISO, 111 wRC+, .324 wOBA, .784 OPS and three home runs.
Jeimer Candelario in 2018: 0.6 fWAR, 93 PA, .333 BABIP, 9.7 BB%, 21.5 K%, .217 ISO, 132 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .849 OPS and three home runs.
Overall, Candelario has logged just 249 career Major League plate appearances. But for a player who won’t even be arbitration-eligible until 2021 (according to Spotrac), it looks as though the Tigers may just have a long-term solution at the hot corner.
Pitching
It hasn’t just been the position players who’ve shown promise early on.
Joe Jimenez is starting to resemble the dominant relief pitcher he was in the minors and not the hurler who was knocked around to the tune of a 12.32 ERA, a 5.84 FIP and a 2.105 WHIP in 19 frames last season.
The flame-throwing right-hander has yet to allow a run in 10 outings (9.2 frames), serving as the de facto setup man for closer Shane Greene.
Jimenez, 23, has long been viewed as the Tigers’ closer of the future. If the team trades Greene for a haul of prospects—something that shouldn’t be discounted given the 29-year-old’s value—Jimenez could be finishing games sooner rather than later.
Elsewhere, southpaws Matthew Boyd (0.67 WHIP, 1.40 ERA, 0.2 fWAR) and Daniel Norris (3.59 SIERA, 11.45 K/9, 13.1 swinging strike percentage) have shown well since working with new pitching coach Chris Bosio.
There’s also Buck Farmer, who could be settling in to a bullpen role after failing to stick as a starter.
The former second round pick’s initial numbers (5.66 FIP, 6.30 BB/9) certainly aren’t encouraging, but much of his struggles were due to a two-inning implosion against Pittsburgh on April 1 when he faced 11 batters and surrendered five earned runs, four hits, a home run and a walk.
Walks are still a bit of an issue, but in his eight innings since, Farmer has allowed just two runs to go along with a stellar 15.2 swinging strike percentage.
Given the time to iron things out during a rebuilding year, the right-hander certainly has the potential to develop into a bullpen piece.
Moving forward in 2018 and beyond
The Detroit Tigers still have a long ways to go. For all the relative promise they’ve shown, the team has been streaky at best in 2018.
Detroit was swept by Pittsburgh to start the year before winning four of five.
A five-game losing streak followed that. Then came a stretch that included six wins in eight games.
What’s more, despite a near .500 record, the team has failed to win any of the games they’ve played against early-season contenders in Cleveland, the Yankees and the Pirates.
That in itself shows the divide between the contenders and the rebuilding Tigers.
Still, Detroit has beat up on teams who are either buried in the standings or are in the midst of rebuilds of their own.
Against the Royals, White Sox and Orioles, the Tigers are 9-3.
That, coupled with the improvements of Jones, Machado, Castellanos, Candelario, Jimenez and others seems to suggest Detroit isn’t in for the lengthy rebuilding projects taking place in Miami and Kansas City.
Obviously, it’s still tremendously early in the season and a prolongedcold streak could torpedo the early-season progress made by Detroit, but the promise is there.
The road is still a long one where the rebuild is concerned, but if the Detroit Tigers squint, they can start to see the light at the end tunnel down the line.
