Anything can happen in an MLB season.
Of the 10 teams that earned postseason berths in 2016, just five returned to October baseball in 2017.
Looking ahead to 2018, there may not be quite as much turnover among playoff squads, but there won’t by any shortage of competition.
Non-postseason teams from 2017 like Milwaukee, St. Louis, Anaheim, Seattle, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Texas could conceivably make noise this coming season after putting together strong offseasons.
There’s also the possibility that a rebuilding club with young pieces in or around the Majors—like Atlanta or Oakland—could take significant steps forward a la Arizona and Colorado in 2017.
With all that being said, here’s a look at where last season’s playoff teams stand in terms of whether they should make it back to October in 2018.
This is all speculative mind you, and simply looking at teams on paper. Things could very well change as the regular season progresses.
Should be comfortably in playoffs
Houston, Dodgers, Yankees, Nationals, Cleveland
Last season’s two World Series participants are perhaps to two most likely locks for more postseason play later this fall.
Both are unequivocal favorites in their respective divisions due to standout star performers and exceptional depth.
The Astros will get a full season out of Justin Verlander while also welcoming Gerrit Cole, Joe Smith and Hector Rondon into the fold.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ burgeoning young core could be supplemented by elite prospects in Walker Buehler and Alex Verdugo as the season progresses. The duo might not have the same initial impact as Cody Bellinger or Corey Seager, but they have the upside to make similar contributions as their careers progress.
In an offseason in which a number of contenders, or would-be contenders, added big-name pieces (see Houston with Cole, Boston with J.D. Martinez and San Francisco with Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen), the Yankees may have made the biggest power move of all.
New York traded for Giancarlo Stanton, bolstering an already potent lineup with one of the game’s premier sluggers.
The Yankees’ recent additions of Brandon Drury and Neil Walker should only help the cub, as will full seasons from 2017 trade deadline acquisitions Sonny Gray, Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson.
Similar to the Dodgers, New York could benefit from late-season promotions of top prospects. For the Yankees, said prospects include Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield.
On paper, they look the most complete team in the American League East.
Nationals
Just as with a number of clubs on this list, the Nationals have a firm grasp on the top spot in the National League East.
The Phillies, or Atlanta, could very well take steps forward in 2018, but even in that scenario, Washington simply has too much talent not to repeat in a division they claimed by 20 games last season.
Cleveland
While teams like the Dodgers and Cubs currently play in tough divisions, Cleveland… simply doesn’t.
The White Sox and Tigers could be dangerous contenders in three to five years, but both are in rebuilding mode. Kansas City is following a similar path, which essentially equates to swathes of potential wins for Cleveland.
If it weren’t for Minnesota, Cleveland would be runaway favorites, and it wouldn’t be anywhere close. However, the Twins’ strong winter could set them up to do some damage in the postseason.
Should be in, barring something unforeseen
Boston, Chicago, Minnesota, Colorado
Boston is only in this category on this list because on paper New York looks like a better team due to their outstanding bullpen and superior depth.
The Red Sox should make it back to October baseball, but they’ll face stiff competition in the always-challenging American League East from Baltimore and Toronto.
Elsewhere, there should be plenty of competition in the Wild Card race from the Twins, Angels, Mariners and Rangers.
Chicago is another team that probably deserves to be higher on this list—or at least in the above category. However, the Cubs’ bullpen is far from set in stone.
It could very well be that one of Brandon Morrow, Steve Cishek or Justin Wilson prove to be a quality replacement for Wade Davis, but that isn’t a certainty at this point.
While that might not seem like a significant issue, Chicago is playing in one of baseball’s best divisions, with Cardinals and Brewers looking to unseat the Cubs.
Milwaukee recently added Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain to their core, while St. Louis brought in Marcell Ozuna and Luke Gregerson and Miles Mikolas, and will get a full season out of Paul DeJong.
Then there’s the Minnesota Twins, who have quietly positioned themselves as a worthy competitor to Cleveland, or perhaps as a team to supplant the organization atop the American League Central.
The Twins’ young core of Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Jose Berrios should continue to develop. What’s more, the front office supplemented the group with a raft of shrewd offseason additions, including Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke.
Rebuilding teams in Chicago, Kansas City and Detroit should provide Minnesota with plenty of wins as they try and track down Cleveland. Those added wins should help push the Twins firmly into the Wild Card picture as one of the favorites if they don’t overtake their division rivals in Northeast Ohio.
Rounding out this portion of the list is Colorado, an organization that invested heavily in the team’s bullpen this past winter.
Wade Davis was brought in to replace Greg Holland, while Jake McGee was re-signed. Bryan Shaw was also added via free agency, giving Bud Black a formidable relief corps—that will also include some combination of Chris Rusin, Scott Oberg and Adam Ottavino— to rely on.
With the Dodgers seem entrenched at the top of the National League West, Colorado seems a much better bet for a Wild Card berth.
Competition from the division-rival Diamondbacks and Giants could hinder the Rockies, as could a glut of quality Wild Card contenders around the league, but Colorado’s potentially shut-down bullpen, high-powered offense and young rotation make them look like a playoff team.
In danger of missing out
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks might not be as good as last year’s team. They’ll still be a good team, but perhaps not good enough to punch a postseason ticket.
Drury, Fernando Rodney, David Hernandez, Chris Iannetta, Gregor Blanco and Adam Rosales are all gone.
The six have been replaced by the likes of Brad Boxberger, Yoshihisa Hirano, Alex Avila and Jarrod Dyson.
While those all amount to quality additions for Arizona, the organization will have trouble finding a suitable slugger to replace J.D. Martinez.
Steven Souza is a good, above-average slugger at the Major League level, but he isn’t the prolific power threat that the ex-Tiger is.
At this point, Giancarlo Stanton and Martinez are 1A. and 1B in terms of the top power hitters in baseball.
Since breaking out with the Tigers in 2014, Martinez ranks fourth in the league in ISO. He’s also a complete hitter, ranking fifth in both wOBA and wRC+ in the same span.
Souza had a quality 2017, with a 3.7 fWAR, a .220 ISO and 30 bombs. However, in his three MLB seasons with at least 400 at-bats, it was just his first with an ISO north of .200.
If he can replicate it, the Diamondbacks can stay competitive. If not, they could get buried behind the Dodgers in the division and Colorado, St. Louis and Milwaukee in the Wild Card.
