Let’s just get this out of the way first, the New York Mets could be very good in 2018—or they could be very bad.
Best-case scenario, the Mets probably don’t have enough to challenge the Nationals for the division crown, but they make a run in the Wild Card if they can get everything to click.
That’s especially true considering that both Miami and Atlanta are still in various stages of rebuilding. What’s more, even with Philadelphia signing Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana, they could be a year away from challenging for the division crown.
Worst-case scenario, New York doesn’t contend. Like at all.
The Mets are a team mired somewhere between rebuilding and contending. They’re stocked with an intriguing mix of exciting young players and veterans with the potential to make an impact.
New York’s young core is spearheaded by Michael Conforto, who is fresh off a 4.4 fWAR season and an All-Star game appearance in 2017. There’s also former elite prospect in Ahmed Rosario, who is taking over shortstop duties full time next season.
This is all without mentioning resident ace Noah Syndergaard, who is only 25.
Syndergaard will front a rotation that also include some combination of Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey and Seth Lugo. The Mets added Jason Vargas to the mix this past winter, adding a source of stability and innings.
That being said, Vargas is slated to miss time early in the season due to a broken bone in his right hand.
Purely from a talent standpoint, it’s a quality group. However, injuries and ineffectiveness have taken their roll in years past. If they continue to, the Mets could be in trouble.
Despite 201.1 innings and 31 starts from deGrom, Syndergaard was limited to seven outings, while Wheeler (5.03 FIP) and Matz (5.05 FIP) combined for just 30 starts and 153 frames.
There’s also Harvey, who has thrown exactly 92.2 innings each in each of the last two seasons.
If it all works, New York’s rotation could be a strength as the team looks to reestablish itself as a contender.
If not, well you saw what happened in 2017 when the Mets finished 27 games behind Bryce Harper and company with a mere 70 wins.
The New York Mets’ lineup
The same can be said of New York’s veteran-dependent lineup in terms of boom or bust potential.
Last season, the Mets finished 18th in the league in runs scored, utilizing proven power bats like Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker and Lucas Duda to help fuel the offense.
New York also relied on Yoenis Cespedes, who was excellent (.247 ISO, 369 wOBA, 130 wRC+ and 17 home runs in 321 PA) in the 81 games he played in.
While New York’s offense functioned at a high rate (fourth in OBP and sixth in runs scored in May, ninth in wOBA in September and October) without Cespedes, they’re obviously a much better team with him in the lineup as opposed to out of it.
Still, his presence couldn’t help the club’s offense perform better over the course of the season.
Among the batters who will share the lineup with the former Tiger are a number of veteran sluggers.
Sound familiar?
Power hitters
Bruce returned to New York via free agency after spending the tail end of 2017 in Cleveland. Also joining the Mets in the offseason were first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and third baseman Todd Frazier.
Gonzalez is just two seasons removed from notching a 3.0 fWAR, a 129 wRC+, a .354 wOBA, a .205 ISO and 28 home runs in 643 plate appearances for the Dodgers.
However, he’s also two whole seasons removed from notching a 3.0 fWAR, an .830 OPS, a 129 wRC+, a .354 wOBA, a .205 ISO and 28 home runs in 643 plate appearances for the Dodgers.
Since then, the first baseman is sitting on a collective 0.1 fWAR and a .743 OPS.
Freed of having to share time with Cody Bellinger, Gonzalez should have the plate appearances to try and regain his past form.
If he can achieve that, it would do wonders for New York’s offense.
If not, the Mets would have another hole to fill offensively.
Outside of Gonzalez, the rest of New York’s core offensive players include Conforto, who will miss the start of the season.
There’s also Cespedes, who has had his fare share of injury troubles in the Big Apple.
Rounding out the group of key offensive players are Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier. Both have been productive enough in their careers, but Bruce has eclipsed the 3.0 fWAR mark just once since 2011, while Frazier hasn’t done so since 2015.
Strikeouts
While both veterans bring plenty in the power department, their swing-and-miss tendencies could provide problematic for the Mets’ offense.
In 2017, New York finished with the 20th-highest strikeout rate in the league at 20.9%. Since 2016, they rank just 18th in punch out rate.
Over that span, among qualified players, Frazier (23.2%) and Bruce (22.0%) rank 23rd and 37th respectively in strikeout rate.
The pair of ex-Reds could very well provide some much-needed offensive support for Cespedes in the Big Apple, or their respective strikeouts could hinder the organization’s offensive potential.
The trade deadline
The New York Mets could also be fascinating to watch come July and August.
If the club is out of contention by that point, a number of players on expiring contracts could conceivably be flipped for prospects to help restock a barren farm system.
Relievers like AJ Ramos, Jeurys Familia and Jerry Blevins will all become free agents in the winter.
Depending on how other teams with quality relievers fare, Ramos, Familia and Blevins could be three of the more sought-after names on the trade market.
None of the three seem likely to bring in a similar return to say Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman. However, snagging a return more in line with what the Tigers received for Justin Wilson and Alex Avila could be attainable if Ramos, Familia and Blevins perform at a high level.
Detroit snagged a plug-and-play third base prospect in Jeimer Candelario. The 24-year-old looks like a long-term fit in the Motor City after collecting 12 walks and nine extra-base hits to go along with an .874 OPS in 106 plate appearances for Detroit down the stretch.
Also joining the Tigers organization was infield prospect Isaac Paredes, who impressed as an 18-year-old against competition that was on average 3.2 years older than him in the Midwest League.
The infielder registered a .725 OPS, 70 RBI, 65 runs scored, 42 walks and 39 extra-base hits in 517 plate appearances.
TigsTown’s Chris Brown tweeted the following about Paredes in August of 2017.
The list of 18-year-olds with 11+ HRs in the Midwest League since 2000:
Daric Barton
Adam Jones
Justin Upton
Fernando Tatis Jr
Isaac Paredes— Chris Brown (@ChrisBrown0914) August 8, 2017
Should the Mets rebuild, following a similar strategy in trades would be extremely beneficial.
Of course, making deals are easier said than done, but if in each trade New York can snag a young piece to pair with Ahmed Rosario, Syndergaard and Dominic Smith, while also adding a prospect to help sustain success in the future, it would be a win-win.
Other potential New York Mets trade chips
Among the other players on expiring contracts who could conceivably be moved for some kind of prospect returns include Harvey and infielders Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes.
However, New York’s most fascinating trade chip might be Gonzalez.
The first baseman’s trade value is directly tied to whether or not he can rebound with the Mets, but if he can, he’d be an intriguing addition for another club via trade.
According to Spotrac, the vast majority of Gonzalez’ salary is being paid by Atlanta and Los Angeles in 2018.
The Mets are only paying him $545,000 in 2018, meaning any other team acquiring him would only be on the hook for a prorated portion of that salary.
Without the hurdle of having to pay down a massive salary, the potential market for Gonzalez could involve most contending teams in the league.
Injuries and ineffectiveness could create needs for teams down the road, but as it stands there are still contenders with potential needs at first base.
The Yankees stand out as a fit, as do Cleveland and the Mariners if the respective Yonder Alonso and Ryon Healy experiments don’t work out. Gonzalez could also make for a potential designated hitter for a number of American League squads.
2018
The New York Mets could contend in 2018. There should be plenty of wins up for grabs in the National League East what with the Marlins, Phillies and Atlanta all in various stages of rebuilding.
All that being said, the Mets could also falter in 2018. The organization doesn’t have the look of a contender on paper, and there are plenty of players with significant injury history populating the depth chart.
Contending or rebuilding, they’ll be a fascinating team to watch this season.
