Breaking down the Seattle Mariners rotation options, including the best and worst case scenarios for a group that isn’t the deepest in the league.
Major League Baseball’s offseason was, in a word, slow.
The trade market was at least somewhat active, with deals for Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria highlighting the winter period. But that was about it.
While there wasn’t as much overall activity as there has been in years past, the American League West gets the top prize for the most significant, notable activity since the end of the World Series.
The Angels signed Shohei Ohtani and Zack Cozart while trading for Ian Kinsler, while the A’s nabbed Stephen Piscotty.
Texas, a team widely linked with Ohtani, improved their rotation outlook significantly with the respective acquisitions of Doug Fister, Mike Minor and Matt Moore to pair with Cole Hamels and Martin Perez.
Then there was the Seattle Mariners.
Seattle was hardly inactive, with the acquisitions of second baseman center fielder Dee Gordon and reliever Juan Nicasio likely to improve the team. However, neither will provide aid in the area the Mariners need to improve the most: the rotation.
The moves, which tacked on—per Spotrac— a combined $18.3 million to Seattle’s payroll next season ($10.8 million in salary for Gordon, $7.5 million in salary for Nicasio) were hardly redundant.
While it remains to be seen how Gordon fares in center field, Seattle did need an offensive upgrade at the position following Jarrod Dyson’s departure.
Elsewhere, Nicasio essentially replaces Emilio Pagan as a late-inning option for the M’s, potentially jumping ahead of Nick Vincent, David Phelps and James Pazos in the queue to serve as the primary setup man ahead of closer Edwin Diaz.
Still, the need remains in the starting rotation, and with Gordon and Nicasio’s salaries further complicating the financial picture for Seattle, the M’s might find it difficult to add another starter via free agency.
Following the Money
It’s not just Gordon and Nicasio either in terms of significant payroll commitments.
According to Spotrac, third baseman Kyle Seager’s salary jumped from $10.5 million plus a $500,000 signing bonus in 2017 to $18.5 million plus a $500,000 signing bonus in 2018. Second baseman Jean Segura will see a somewhat similar hike in salary.
His isn’t as large as Seager’s, but it’s significant all the same. The former Diamondback will take home (per Spotrac) $9 million with a $500,000 signing bonus in 2018 after making $6.2 million and a $500,000 signing bonus in 2017.
Seager and Segura’s long-term extensions both call for raises in the coming years, while Gordon’s contract runs for four more seasons and also calls for increases.
Throw in the portion of Mike Leake’s contract that Seattle is paying for, as well as two years each of arbitration for James Paxton and Mike Zunino, and the M’s hardly are in the clear in terms of financial flexibility to make significant free agent additions.
This is all without mentioning Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano, who according to Spotrac, will occupy a combined 31.82% of the Mariners’ payroll this season and 41.6% of the team’s locked-in commitments for next seasons.
That kind of financial commitment makes it difficult to see Seattle hand a significant contract to Jake Arrieta, or even Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb.
(This is all purely speculative mind you.)
Of course, M’s ownership could decide to spend more, but if they stick with a similar payroll, adding Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb seems out of the question.
That’s unfortunate as what’s left of the free agent market is Seattle’s best chance of bolstering their rotation.
The Trade Market
You really can’t fault Jerry Dipoto and the front office for trying.
Seattle used a league-high 17 starting pitchers last season, one more than the Rays and Rockies’ combined totals.
A number of those 17 were trade acquisitions that failed to pan out, i.e. Yovani Gallardo, Chase De Jong and Chris Heston.
Some of the need for starters was in part due to misfortune. Drew Smyly never threw a regular season pitch for the club after being acquired from the Rays due to Tommy John surgery. He was non-tendered in the offseason and signed with the Cubs.
It was an unfortunate break for the M’s, considering the steep price they paid to acquire the former Tiger.
Past Deals
Dipoto and company flipped relief pitcher Thomas Burrows and starting pitcher Luiz Gohara to Atlanta for reliever Shae Simmons and outfielder Mallex Smith on January 11, 2017.
Smith, along with minor league infielder Carlos Vargas and starting pitcher Ryan Yarbrough were then flipped to the Rays for Smyly.
Gohara reached the Majors last season after pitching in Advanced-A, Double-A and Triple-A in the Atlanta system.
He made five starts as a 21-year-old for the National League East franchise, accumulating a 1.0 fWAR to go along with a 2.75 FIP and 31 strikeouts.
There was also Yarbrough, who fired off 157.1 innings for Tampa Bay’s Triple-A affiliate in Durham, pitching to a 3.45 ERA, a 3.32 xFIP, a 1.163 WHIP and 159 strikeouts in the process.
Hindsight is obviously 20-20, but that unfortunate deal lost the M’s a pair of potential quality Major League starters in 2018.
It wasn’t the only deal in the past few deals that has sapped Seattle’s farm system of key prospect depth.
Since taking over, Dipoto has dealt the likes of Tyler O’Neil, Enyel De Los Santos, Paul Blackburn and Alex Jackson in respective deals for veterans like Marco Gonzales, Joaquin Benoit, Danny Valencia and Max Povse and Robert Whalen.
These moves have left Advanced-A outfielder Kyle Lewis and Rookie-Ball first baseman Evan White as the M’s best trade chips.
Trading one or both could very well net Seattle a rotation solution of sorts. However, given the lack of depth in the farm system, the M’s might be better suited hanging on to their only two potential impact prospects—especially considering both could reach the Majors by the time Robinson Cano is starting to wind down his career. Essentially, they’re the next generation for the M’s.
Outside of trading Lewis and White, the organization’s best trade chips are likely corner outfielders Mitch Haniger and Ben Gamel, as well as first baseman Ryon Healy. At that point though, they’d just be creating more needs.
The Incumbent Options
Dating back to the start of the 2016 season, Seattle has used 26 different starting pitchers, often mixing and matching waiver wire adds and minor trade acquisitions with the likes of James Paxton, Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.
When healthy and on form, the trio are a solid base to build off of in terms of a quality rotation, but none of the trio have been able to pitch a full season’s worth of games as of late.
Sine 2016, Hernandez and Iwakuma have made just 41 and 39 respective starts, while Paxton was limited to 24 starts and 136 innings last season.
While the latter has been excellent when on the field—his 8.6 fWAR since 2016 is eighth-best among starters, ahead of both Carlos Carrasco and Chris Archer—Hernandez and Iwakuma haven’t been as effective.
Felix Hernandez
Once an ace capable of going toe-to-toe with Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw, King Felix hasn’t had the best stretch as of late.
With a lifetime 51.5 fWAR, he’s managed a cumulative 1.4 metric in his last two seasons, including a 0.4 mark in 2017.
That was in part due to a handful of trips to the disabled list that limited Hernandez to 86.2 frames spread over 16 starts last year.
Despite seeing his swinging strike percentage stay below the 10.0 mark for the second consecutive season and barely besting his career low in average fastball velocity with a 91.2 MPH number, Hernandez was at least somewhat productive.
His 4.03 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA certainly didn’t remind anyone of his Cy Young days, but if he can replicate similar numbers in 2018, it would go a long ways towards giving Seattle some much-needed stability behind Paxton.
Hisashi Iwakuma
Owner of a lifetime 11.7 fWAR in parts of six seasons, 2017 was by far Iwakuma’s worst campaign in the Majors.
Limited to just 31 innings in six starts, the veteran’s strikeouts per nine innings rate (4.65) was a career low and danced dangerously close to his walks per nine innings rate (3.48) which was also a career worst.
Elsewhere, Iwakuma’s 6.42 FIP and 5.89 xFIP didn’t exactly paint a pretty picture, while his fastball velocity continued to dip.
After sitting in and around 90-91 MPH in his first three seasons, the starter has seen the average velocity on his heater fall from 89.2 to 88.6 to 85.9 in each if the past three campaigns.
Iwakuma, who had shoulder surgery late in 2017, is with the Mariners as a minor league deal. If fully healthy, it’s possible he could provide significant help for Seattle’s rotation.
However, the hurler is still working his way back from the surgery and might not be ready to pitch until part way through the regular season.
While he tries to regain his past form, Seattle will have a less-than-ideal rotation situation on their hands.
Mike Leake, Who May or May Not Be a Solution
The most likely candidate to take Iwakuma’s spot behind Paxton and Hernandez is Mike Leake, who quietly had a career year in 2017 thanks to career highs in both fWAR (3.1) and swinging strike percentage (8.4) as well as an excellent five-start stretch with the M’s.
Leake turned in a 1.3 fWAR and a 2.25 FIP, allowing just two walks in 32 innings.
Still, the veteran has never overpowered hitters, with his average fastball velocity mainly sitting in the 89-92 MPH range.
He also doesn’t miss bats at a high rate.
Despite the career-best in swinging strike percentage last season, Leake finished tied with Ivan Nova for the seventh-lowest metric in the category among all qualified starters.
If Seattle’s defense falters, Leake could conceivably be in trouble.
The veteran has almost always pitched in front of quality defensive ball clubs, which help when you’re not a big strikeout guy and tend to get more outs via contact.
Since entering the league in 2010, Leake’s teams have finished with the following rankings in terms of defensive runs above average:
2010: Cincinnati Reds, 3rd (+43.9).
2011: Cincinnati Reds, 3rd (+44.5).
2012: Cincinnati Reds, 3rd (+34.7).
2013: Cincinnati Reds, 7th (+31.5).
2014: Cincinnati Reds, 3rd (+54.2)
2015: Cincinnati Reds, 22nd (-18.0) and the San Francisco Giants, 2nd (+30.2).
2016: St. Louis Cardinals, 24th (-32.8).
2017: St. Louis Cardinals, 9th (+13.2) and the Seattle Mariners, 12th(+8.5).
So yes, at first blush, Leake should be in good hands in the Pacific Northwest with the Mariners’ defense.
However, Seattle is replacing arguably the team’s best fielder in Jarrod Dyson (6.8 defensive runs above average, +10 DRS, 8.6 UZR/150 and a 5.2 ARM) in center field with Dee Gordon, a similarly fleet-footed player, but who is second baseman who hasn’t played center field in the Majors.
Of course, Gordon could obviously make a smooth transition to the Safeco Field grass, but that’s a significant question mark at this point.
The M’s will also be without Carlos Ruiz, who despite a -6 DRS managed a 6.8 defensive runs above average metric.
What’s more, Seattle seems set to lean heavily on Ben Gamel in left field. In 712 defensive innings at the position last season, the former Yankees farmhand was hardly convincing from an advanced metrics standpoint, with a -4.8 defensive runs above average rating, a -6 DRS and a -1.8 UZR/150.
That could spell trouble for the contact-oriented Leake.
The Rest
After Paxton, Hernandez, (eventually, maybe Iwakuma) and Leake, Seattle will utilize some combination of the following pitchers:
Erasmo Ramirez, Marco Gonzales, Ariel Miranda and Andrew Moore.
The 2018 Seattle Mariners, ladies and gentlemen!
Ramirez, who found plenty of success as a swingman reliever for the Rays in the past few seasons, has the best track record of the group, but saw his run-prevention numbers spike across the board thanks to an uptick in home runs.
Among all pitchers with at least 130 innings last season, only 17 had a HR/9 rate than Ramirez’ 1.51 stat.
Still, Ramirez worked around that somewhat to turn in a respectable 4.39 ERA and a 4.43 FIP in 131.1 frames of work.
That’s decent production for the back end of the rotation, but Ramirez hasn’t been able to escape the injury bug in Spring Training.
The Seattle Times’ Mariners beat writer Ryan Divish tweeted the following on February 18:
Erasmo Ramirez has a minor lat strain and has been shut down for two weeks
— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) February 18, 2018
Two days later, MLB.com’s Mariners reporter Greg Johns tweeted on February 20:
https://twitter.com/GregJohnsMLB/status/965984106000494592
In a perfect world, Ramirez will be able to pitch right away when the regular season kicks off, but the injury news is far from ideal.
Gonzales, Miranda and Moore
The rest of the candidates to fill out Seattle’s rotation are either unproven or have struggled mightily in the Majors.
Marco Gonzales was a highly regarded prospect in St. Louis’ system, but is now 26 and has thrown just 77.1 innings in the Majors.
Then there’s Miranda, who soaked up 160 innings for the Seattle Mariners last season, but managed a 5.73 FIP and a 4.96 SIERA in the process.
Like Ramirez, Miranda also had problems keeping the ball in the yard. Among starting pitchers with 160 frames, the 29-year-old had the highest HR/9 rate in the league at 2.08.
Rounding out the group is Moore, who unfortunately blended Leake’s low strikeout rate and Ramirez and Miranda’s propensity to allow home runs last season.
In 59 innings last season, the 23-year-old struck out just 4.73 batters per nine innings to go along with an 8.2 swinging strike percentage. He was also tagged for 2.14 home runs per nine frames.
Moore was a much different pitcher in the minors, with higher strikeout rates and lower home run rates, so there’s hope he can right the ship.
Still, the Oregon State product didn’t get off to the best start in Seattle.
Best Case Scenario
In a perfect world, Seattle will get ace-like production from James Paxton with quality, consistent showings from Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and Mike Leake.
The M’s don’t need the three to pitch like front-line starters, but if they can turn in fWARs in the 2.0 neighborhood, Seattle will be in solid shape.
Add in some decent outings by Ramirez and Gonzales, and the Mariners could very well push for a playoff spot.
At this point, the rotation is the missing piece of the puzzle for the Seattle Mariners.
Last season, Seattle’s offense finished fifth in the league in wRC+ —and that was before adding Gordon and Ryon Healy.
Elsewhere, the bullpen will get full seasons of Nicasio and David Phelps to pair with Nick Vincent and the hard-throwing duo of James Pazos and Dan Altavilla to build a bridge to flame-throwing closer Edwin Diaz.
Worst Case Scenario
The argument can probably be made that Seattle’s lack of sufficient rotation depth has kept them out of the playoffs the past few seasons.
During the 2016 campaign, the M’s finished three games back of the second Wild Card place despite their starters finishing a staggering 25th in fWAR.
Last season’s Wild Card deficit was greater at seven games, but the Mariners likely would have made things closer if they had more consistency in the rotation.
In addition to using a league-high 17 starters last season, 13 of them made four or more starts and only eight had fWARs that were positive numbers.
Should that lack of depth come back to rear its ugly head, Seattle will be in trouble.
Financially they seemingly don’t have the cash to splash on a top free agent, while the farm system offers little in the way of trading for established solutions.
