While the Manny Machado trade was heavily reported on in the days leading up to it, the latest blockbuster… wasn’t.
Brad Hand is now a member of the MLB franchise in Cleveland after making the move to the American League Central team in a trade with fellow reliever Adam Cimber for highly-touted prospect Francisco Mejia.
It’s a significant trade for a number of reasons that have both long and short-term implications for both franchises.
Let’s dig into those implications, starting with the obvious buyer in the trade, Cleveland.
Cleveland’s perspective
Prior to the trade, the 2018 season looked like Cleveland’s last bite at the proverbial apple in terms of claiming a World Series trophy.
What with a quartet (Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen) of upcoming free agents likely to command significant deals in the winter and a sluggish start to the season.
Cleveland has played better as of late, and they still have Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor on hand, but the team’s remaining championship window is considerably smaller than their American League rivals in Houston, New York and Boston.
In fact, that championship window could shut in the next year or two.
It’s very possible that Cleveland could win an American League Central title or two past their championship window closing—as strange as that might sound—but Terry Francona and company look increasingly like an origination with significantly less fire power and depth to compete with the behemoths out west and out east in October.
The American League Central, which is home to four teams at various stages of rebuilding, could propel Cleveland to a few more division titles, but whether they can advance past the Division Series come October remains to be seen.
Certainly, Cleveland’s ability to make it to the ALCS and beyond seemed in jeopardy this year.
Despite a strong starting staff (2nd in fWAR at the All-Star break) and a productive offense (5th in team wOBA and wRC+ over the same span), Cleveland was starting to resemble their division rivals in Detroit’s past contenders in terms of possessing strong starters and a potent offense, but a faulty bullpen.
It’s was prominent development for a bullpen that was so dominant in years past but has limped to a collective -0.9 fWAR so far in 2018.
Allen’s FIP is 4.28 on the season, while the generally-reliable duo of Dan Otero and Zach McAllister—another free agent this winter—have both imploded at times.
Tyler Olson, who didn’t allow a run in 20 innings last season, has a sky-high 7.20 ERA in 18.0 frames this year and a slightly-better-but-still-not-great 4.70 FIP.
There’s also Miller, who’s been limited to just 14.1 innings in 2018, pitching to a 3.35 FIP, that is pedestrian by his lofty standards.
In fact, just four Cleveland relief pitchers have a positive fWAR this season: Miller, Oliver Perez, Evan Marshall and Carlos Carrasco.
Carrasco is obviously a starting pitcher, but collected a 0.1 fWAR for an inning of work in which he struck out a pair of batters versus the Yankees.
Hand and Mejia were both on the list. See the other 198 MLB players who could be traded. Some of the names may surprise you:
Short and long-term implications
Adding Hand and Cimber certainly helps.
Brad Hand in 2018: 44.1 IP, 0.7 fWAR, 3.05 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 35.0 K%, 46.9 GB%, 1.02 HR/9, .298 BABIP.
Adam Cimber in 2018: 1.1 fWAR, 3.17 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 26.6 K%, 52.3 GB%, 0.37 HR/9, .315 BABIP.
Parting with Mejia is a steep price to pay for both Hand and Cimber, but it may have been worth it for Cleveland.
They’ll bring a necessary shot in the arm to a bullpen that seemed all but certain to self-implode at some point in the postseason, while also settling in as long-term pieces in Cleveland.
According to Spotrac, Hand is controllable through 2020 with a team option for 2021. Meanwhile, per the same publication, Cimber is controllable through 2023 via team control and arbitration.
Collectively, they by no means have the track record of Allen and Miller, but they just might be the long-term successors for the pair in Cleveland.
For an organization that has thrived on locking players up on team-friendly deals (see Ramirez, Yan Gomes, Roberto Perez, Corey Kluber, Carrasco and others), Hand and Cimber’s contract situations are close to the definition of “team friendly.”
Hand is making $3.5 million this year, $6.5 million in 2019, $7.5 million in 2020 and has a $10 million team option for 2021 that comes with a $1 million buyout.
Then there’s Cimber, who won’t even become arbitration eligible until after the 2020 campaign.
These financial situations are especially key because Cleveland won’t have to spend much, if anything on financially on replacements for Allen and Miller.
It obviously remains to be seen if the organization will attempt to re-sign either, but it may make sense to keep Hand and Cimber in place and let the incumbent relievers walk in hopes of recouping a draft pick.
That might be the best bet long-term for the franchise, from a sustainability and financial standpoint.
Brantley and Chisenhall
The potential financial savings could also help Cleveland in other areas.
Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall, as mentioned, are both free agents this winter.
Abstaining from handing lengthy and expensive financial commitments to Miller and Allen would potentially give Cleveland the flexibility to keep one or both of the two outfielders.
The American League Central club don’t look likely to join New York, Boston and Los Angeles in having sky-high payrolls and seems destined to more or less stay in the same realm that they’re currently in from a financial standpoint.
Because of that, and the team’s recent inability to find proper replacements for departing free agents, re-signing Brantley and Chisenhall will be key.
The Yonder Alonso experiment hasn’t worked out so far, as the 2017 All-Star has failed to replicate his past production and hasn’t been able to fill the Carlos Santana-sized shoes at first base.
Alonso, per Spotrac, is making $7 million this year, $8 million in 2019 and has a 2020 vesting option for $9 million.
In a vacuum, that’s not a terrible contract,. But for a mid-market Cleveland team that will see players like Kluber, Ramirez, Gomes, Jason Kipnis and others see scheduled increases in their contracts—not to mention Francisco Lindor’s arbitration situation—it could approach contractual albatross status.
They can’t afford to whiff on a replacement for either Brantley and Chisenhall.
The two outfielders are fifth and sixth among Cleveland position players in fWAR since 2015 behind only Lindor, Ramirez, Kipnis and Santana.
With Kipnis’ offense cratering and Santana now in Philadelphia, keeping the duo should be paramount this winter.
Brantley’s All-Star level of play at the plate so far (.363 wOBA and just an 8.3 K%) should only drive up his value. After missing much of the 2016 season, the veteran is once again resembling the offensive force he was back in 2014/2015.
Chisenhall’s level of play at the dish has been similarly impressive, with a .367 wOBA and a 132 wRC+ in 95 plate appearances. He’s currently on the disabled list, and his .366 BABIP suggest he might be in for some regression, but he too is a priority for Cleveland to re-sign.
Other options?
Losing Brantley and or Chisenhall would be a bit easier to swallow if one or both of Bradley Zimmer and Tyler Naquin had established themselves in the Majors, but that hasn’t been the case.
Brandon Guyer’s inability to do anything against right-handed pitching (.045 avg, -68 wRC+, .077 wOBA, 39.1 K%, 2.2 BB%) doesn’t help either.
San Diego’s perspective
And now we finally move to the San Diego Padres’ side of the deal.
Even before the arrival of Mejia, San Diego’s farm system was replete with quality prospects.
From Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Urias and Esteury Ruiz to Cal Quantrill, Mackenzie Gore, Michel Baez and Anderson Espinoza there’s a quality blend of position players and pitchers.
What’s more, with players like Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes, Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer joining Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers and Travis Jankowski, the future is bright for the Padres.
It’s yet another shrewd move for A.J. Preller and the rest of the Padres front office, who’ve made plenty of smart trades over the past year.
Successful Trade
The biggest luxury on a rebuilding team is a good bullpen, and the Padres had a very good one. Third-best collective fWAR in the league good.
It’s entirely possible that Hand wouldn’t have been around when San Diego was ready to contend again, so flipping him and the 27-year-old Cimber for arguably one of the game’s 20 best prospects is a definite win.
Previously, the Padres stole Ruiz and Straham (0.5 fWAR, 3.58 FIP in 34.2 innings in 2018)—along with a half season of Travis Wood—from the Royals for Ryan Buchter, Trevor Cahill and Brandon Maurer.
They also absorbed Phil Hughes’ contract in order to pick up the 74th pick in the 2018 draft, which they used on Grant Little, adding another prospect to the system.
The Padres might not be done either.
If Hand wasn’t a long-term piece for them, then the quartet of Tyson Ross, Clayton Richard, Craig Stammen and Kirby Yates certainly aren’t either.
Ross should bring back a quality haul at the deadline as one of the better rental starters available, while Stammen and Yates are two of many quality relievers potentially available.
Freddy Galvis is another hypothetical trade chip that could net Preller more pieces for the future.
If anything, the rich could get richer—at least from a prospect perspective.
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Francisco Mejia’s arrival
It’s entirely possible that within the next year, the Padres lineup will feature Mejia, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Urias.
That’s significant for the team’s future, as the trio give the organization a strong position player base to build from. With first base and one of the corner outfield spots already accounted for thanks to Hosmer and Myers, San Diego’s future is starting to take shape.
The Mejia-Tatis Jr.-Urias grouping also helps set up would could be a long contention window.
It should be noted that not all prospects make it to or make it in the Majors, that’s simply the truth of the matter. But among position player prospects, the above-mentioned trio look like three of the better bets to make it at the game’s highest level.
Mejia is one of the game’s best hitting prospects and is backing it up in his first full season in Triple-A with a 110 wRC+ and a .335 wOBA against competition that is on average 4.6 years older than him.
Elsewhere, Tatis Jr. is also excelling in the minors, with an .862 OPS and 42 extra-base hits in 394 plate appearances against competition in the Texas League (Double-A) that is on average 4.9 years older than him.
He’s currently sidelined due to a thumb fracture, but come 2019, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him in San Diego at some point.
Then there’s Urias, who could don a Padres uniform as early as later this season. Like Mejia, he’s playing in his first full season at Triple-A for the first time this year.
The results have been extremely encouraging so far as he’s hit .281 with a .393 on-base percentage, a .818 OPS, a .372 wOBA and a career-high .144 ISO.
Some of that production may be due to the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but it’s worth noting that his Triple-A production is exceedingly similar to his Double-A production, albeit with elevated power and strikeout numbers.
Luis Urias in 2017 at Double-A San Antonio: 526 PA, .340 BABIP, .296 avg., .398 OBP, .778 OPS, .361 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 12.9 BB%, 12.4 K%, 3 HR, .084 ISO.
Luis Urias in 2018 at Triple-A El Paso: 390 PA, .354 BABIP, .281 avg, .393 OBP, .818 OPS, .372 wOBA, 121 wRC+, 14.4 BB%, 20.8 K%, 7 HR, .144 ISO.
Contending Soon?
But back to San Diego’s contention window.
It could open sooner than you’d think.
San Diego is, admittedly, the owner of a dismal record this season. But, they punched above their weight at times in the first half and could soon find themselves in a division that is firmly in transition.
The Dodgers will still be the Dodgers, but the rest of the National League West’s contenders are far from locks to maintain that status.
San Francisco’s core continues is aging and is barely propped up by a razor-thin farm system while the Rockies could looking at a Nolan Arenado and D.J. LeMahieu-less team in the next two years if the duo departs via free agency.
Then there’s the Diamondbacks, who have propelled themselves into contention over the last season and a half.
Like the Giants, their roster is aging, although the veteran contingent isn’t as large as the one in San Francisco.
Still, some of Arizona’s could get expensive and quick this offseason. And with a farm system that is arguably in worse shape than San Francisco’s, they might be able to make the kind of trades they’ve made in the past year and a half.
Paul Goldschmidt is a free agent after 2019, assuming Arizona exercises the club option on his contract for next season. A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin are free agents this winter, while the likes of Steven Souza, Robbie Ray, Jake Lamb, David Peralta and Archie Bradley will all get more expensive as they progress through arbitration.
That’s obviously not the complete picture of Arizona’s financial outlook, but still having Yasmany Tomas and Zack Greinke’s respective contracts on their books don’t exactly help where flexibility and roster building are concerned.
In other words, a core fronted by Mejia, Tatis Jr., Urias, Hosmer, Lucchesi, Strahm and Myers could be well poised to make a jump in the standings in the near future and stay there long-term.
MLB perspective
If the Hand trade has signaled anything, it’s that teams are still willing to pay top dollar for the best in bullpen reinforcements.
Past trades for Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Wade Davis netted teams promising young players like Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield and Jorge Soler.
Those high price tags have trickled down into deals for relievers who are perhaps in the next rung down in terms of standing within the game.
Detroit extracted Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes in a trade with the Cubs for Justin Wilson that also sent Alex Avila to the Windy City.
Milwaukee snagged Travis Shaw, Mauricio Dubon, Josh Pennington and Yeison Coca from Boston for Tyler Thornburg, while Oakland netted Blake Treinen, Jesus Luzardo and Sheldon Neuse for the services of Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson.
It should be noted that all of those relievers had multiple years of controllability remaining, while many of the top bullpen options who could be available this summer (Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia, Zach Duke, Brad Brach, Tyler Clippard and others) are rentals.
If anything, it should give teams like the Cincinnati Reds a high bar in terms of where their asking price for Raisel Iglesias falls at the beginning of negotiations.
That’s not to say that Iglesias will be traded, but the Hand trade certainly keeps the value for controllable relivers sky high.
Similarly, other potential controllable bullpen solutions for teams—Detroit’s Shane Greene, Toronto’s Ryan Tepera, Baltimore’s Mychal Givens and Miami’s Kyle Barraclough/Nick Wittgren/Drew Steckenrider troika—should come with relatively larger price tags than before.
That’s obviously all speculative mind you, but the Hand blockbuster shows teams are still willing to pay the highest dollar for top relievers.
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