Forecasting MLB’s most active trade deadline teams

MLB’s trade deadline is fast approaching. While plenty of players and prospects will likely change hands, these teams could be among the most active. This is all speculative mind you.

July is here, and that means the MLB non-waiver trade deadline isn’t far behind.

Taking place every year on the 31st of the month, the calendar year’s seventh month tends to be one of, if not the busiest month of the year in terms of everyone’s favorite—wait for it—trades!

With a significant chasm forming this season between baseball’s contenders and the .500 and cellar-dwelling teams, it will certainly be interesting to see what kind of activity transpires.

If it’s anything like last season, July should make for a strong month of trades.

In 2017, Jose Quintana, Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, Blake Treinen, Jesus Luzardo, Miguel Montero, Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Blake Rutherford, J.D. Martinez and Tyler Clippard (just to name a few) were traded before July 20.

Among the names to switch jerseys in the next week included the likes of David Phelps, Tyler O’Neill, Sergio Romo, AJ Ramos, Jonathan Lucroy, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek.

And that was all before July 31. On that day, a grand total of 14 deals were made.

The White Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, Twins, Tigers and Red Sox were among the most active teams in terms of number of deals, and it wouldn’t be a shock see a similar combination be the most active this time around.

Here’s a look at which teams could be the most active ahead of the July 31 MLB trade deadline.

(Note: This doesn’t necessarily mean which teams will make the most impactful trades. The Diamondbacks made just two trades last July, the Martinez deal and the minor pickup of Adam Rosales, and you can make the argument that the arrival of the former Tiger had the biggest impact of any July trade acquisition in 2017.)

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles farm system is, in a word, bad.

With a host of veterans on expiring deals on a team going nowhere fast, the O’s could do with the talent injection to their minor league system.

Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Zach Britton are obviously the headliners and will command the most significant returns.

However, the O’s could conceivably deal role players and complementary pieces.

Really, at this point, no one on Baltimore’s Major League roster should be off limits in trade talks. It’s highly, highly, highly unlikely, but given the number of veterans they have, trades sending out upwards of 10 players wouldn’t be overly surprising given how the franchise needs to clear players out and start over.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit’s relatively surprising start is now firmly in the rear-view mirror—an 11-game slide will do that to a team—but the Tigers still could make some noise at the deadline.

Their positive play in a weak division certainly doesn’t put them in the same stratosphere as a team with “buyer” status, but it also means that Detroit might not be in for as long of a rebuild.

As such, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Tigers hold on to controllable players like Michael Fulmer and Matthew Boyd who could be part of the next great Detroit team.

However, Detroit could move a number of surplus veterans on expiring deals in Francisco Liriano, Leonys Martin, Jose Iglesias and Victor Martinez seeing as they already have in-house, like-for-like replacements waiting either on the Major League roster or at Triple-A.

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Seattle Mariners

Jerry Dipoto was active on the trade market—stop me if you’ve heard that before—last July in snagging Phelps and Marco Gonzales in separate deals that cost the organization four prospects.

With the Mariners in the pennant chase this time around and with a legitimate chance to break their lengthy playoff drought, don’t bet against Dipoto making some more deals.

He’s already added Alex Colome and Denard Span, but the pitching staff could use some help.

Miami Marlins

Miami should be operating with the same motus operandi as Baltimore in terms of clearing out the Major League team, but with a few slight caveats.

Lewis Brinson, Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Brian Anderson look like keepers. Tayron Guerrero might fit into that group given this controllability.

Otherwise, the Fish should be looking to trade any and everyone for prospects. They won’t be close to contending for the foreseeable future.

Derek Jeter and company should finish what they started in the offseason.

Toronto Blue Jays

There’s a bright future waiting for Toronto in a few years when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette make the Majors.

Until the duo is ready, however, the Blue Jays could be stuck in no-mans land between contending and cellar dwelling.

They should listen on most of their Major League roster.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays always tend to trade veterans and go younger.

They do it every year, including last year when they flipped Tim Beckham, Ryan Garton and Mike Marjama for prospects.

With a roster featuring plenty of veteran names, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Tampa Bay make more moves in the organization’s ongoing, seemingly never-ending, rebuild.

Kansas Royals

Like the Orioles and Marlins before them, Kansas City is staring at a lengthy stint among baseball’s worst teams.

They have some useful veterans to trade and have already moved Jon Jay and Kelvin Herrera.

The million-dollar question, or I guess questions, will be whether they move Salvador Perez and or Danny Duffy.

Opinion: They should.

San Diego Padres

Outside of Raisel Iglesias and Zach Britton, the Padres might have the three best relievers on the trade market in Brad Hand, Craig Stammen and Kirby Yates. They could add even more minor league talent by trading the trio, who may or may not be part of San Diego’s next contender.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers always do something and aren’t a team without needs. Injuries have decimated Dave Roberts’ team so far.

Pitching is one area where Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi may add some pieces.

Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees

These two always seem to try and one-up each other in trades, or at least try and keep up with the other organization.

If one makes a significant addition, you can expect the other to follow with a response via trade.

Cleveland

With so many notable free agents this winter and a payroll that doesn’t seem to be rising, this could be Cleveland’s last hurrah before a slow decline.

They’ll still win the American League Central this season, but in the playoffs and beyond, they don’t exactly stack up with the likes of the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros and (yes, even) the Mariners.

A Manny Machado acquisitions makes all kinds of sense for those reasons.

Other possible active teams: Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta and the Philadelphia Phillies.

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