Tag Archives: oakland a’s

Kingdome Crossover: The Jason Bay/Casper Wells Post-Conundrum Analysis

Posted on by
Reply

Here’s a piece I wrote over at www.kingdomeofseattlesports.com/ on the Mariners outfield situation. Give it a read.

The Mariners made no secret of their desire to beef up their middle-of-the-order in the off-season. They turned John Jaso into Mike Morse. That transaction, however early it might be, is paying off. They signed Raul Ibanez to hit for power and make sure Morse wasn’t the only new-old Mariner. They also signed Jason Bay.

The Mariners’ outfield was clogged to begin with. Michael Saunders, Franklin Gutierrez, Trayvon Robinson, Eric Thames, Carlos Peguero and Wells were all fighting for a third of the outfield pie. You add the new power bats and some people are going to have to go.

Robinson was dealt to Baltimore and Thames and Peguero are playing in Tacoma, Guti and Grand Torrido (that’s Saunders, you can see my explanation here) are starting for the Mariners.

The final outfield spot, in the end, came down to Bay or Wells.

Bay, six years Wells’ senior who is on an expiring contract and hit .165 in nearly half of a season in New York.

Or Wells, the prototypical fourth outfielder who is controlled by the team longer, is younger and cheaper than Bay.

Wells might be one of the more cynically undervalued players in the league. He played well enough to get more ABs in Seattle, however, due to the crowded outfield (see above,) wasn’t able to get them. Wells is never going to be a mega superstar, but given a decent number of at bats, he could be a very solid contributor offensively and defensively.

Wells, again given decent playing time, is a plus defender who could hit around 20 homers in a full season.

But instead the team went with Bay, who if he plays well, is likely to garner a new contract next year from someone else.

That’s no slant on Bay, but in a situation like this when the spot up for grabs is third string corner outfield/DH position, then you should probably go with the younger, cheaper, longer controlled, better defensive player.

Oh, the travesties of baseball.

(You can see the piece in it’s entirety here.)

The Mariners Really Need to Trade Felix Hernandez

Posted on by
68

The Upper Echelons of Major League Pitchers-

  1. Justin Verlander
  2. David Price, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Jered Weaver
  3. Matt Cain, RA Dickey , James Shields, Zack Grienke, Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez
  4. Cliff Lee, Stephen Strasburg,  Yu Darvish, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Johnny Cueto
  5. Ian Kennedy, Anibal Sanchez, Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo, Trevor Cahill, Jordan Zimmerman etc.

Those, in a nutshell, are the top pitchers in baseball. Notice the placement of RA Dickey and James Shields. Both have been traded in the last month, yet both are ranked below (in my estimate) Felix Hernandez. In addition to those two big offseason moves, the Angels signed Josh Hamilton. I say this for one reason, Texas isn’t going anywhere,  and Los Angeles just added Hamilton to their team. The other team in the division is Oakland who, I might point out, was probably the second best team in the AL playoffs last year.

Regardless of Seattle’s current talent (meh,) the team is in a stacked division. Anything besides last place is probably a miracle (barring an Angels’ season-long flop.)

The team isn’t going anywhere soon. Thus it makes sense to trade Felix Hernandez, especially since their top two pitching prospects (Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen) are ranked fourth and eighth in terms of the top 100 prospects in the game per Jonathan Mayo.

There are two, if not three, (James Paxton could be special as well) potential Hernandez replacements waiting in the system. Yes, the fences are being moved in and the Mariners need to sell tickets, but dealing Hernandez makes sense.

Let’s put a few things out there. One, Hernandez is four years younger than Shields and twelve younger than Dickey. Not surprisingly, King Felix is a much better pitcher than both. The point on Shields, or even Dickey, is that Shields fetched the number three overall prospect (again all this per Mayo,) Wil Myers, who has at least “star” potential if not more. Another prospect that went to Tampa was starter Jake Odorizzi, ranked the 30th best in all of baseball. Tampa also picked up two other prospects who are ranked in the top 20 of their system.

New York got the 11th and 83rd best prospects in the game by selling high on a 38-year old.

What I’m getting at, if you haven’t gotten there first, is that the Rays and Mets got some of the better packages of prospects that the trading market has seen in the past few years. I would think that the Mariners would want to cash in with a haul of that kind.

The Mariners need a hitter to lead them into the next phase of the franchise (hopefully contending.) I’m sure they’d jump at a package of Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt (not that Texas would consider that seriously.) But Seattle needs a corner stone. They need the next Miguel Cabrera or Evan Longoria. They need someone who can carry a team on his backs/bats. Maybe Felix Hernandez is the way to find that player.

Surely if James Shields and RA Dickey can fetch outstanding hauls of prospects, then a younger and better pitcher (Felix Hernandez) can get a better one.

What do you think? Should the Mariners trade King Felix or should they keep him and try to contend?

MLB Thanks: It’s Not Thanksgiving, But it Certainly Isn’t Too Early to Say Thanks to Baseball Part 1

Posted on by
2

Yes, it’s Halloween, but it’s never too early, or late, for giving thanks. Especially since baseball season has sadly met its demise.

We have to start by giving thanks to the feel-good stories of the season. The Oakland A’sand Baltimore Orioles. Both of you provided not only a feel-good story, but also instilled hope in the other respective low-life teams around the league. As we speak, Astros fans as well as fans here in Seattle and Kansas City, are unable to contain themselves with the notion that they might actually make something of themselves before embarking on yet another “rebuilding” project.

Thanks to the Texas Rangersfor not totally becoming baseball’s version of the 1990’s version of the Buffalo Bills.

I have the San Francisco Giants to thank for absolutely nothing. Continue reading →

Wrapping Up the Tigers’ Regular Season: MVP Voting, Playoffs and More

Posted on by
3

While the much-hyped MVP discussion is heating up, the regular season is cooling down.

The Tigers joined the San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds as the only teams in baseball to clinch their own divisions.  Also joining those clubs in October baseball are the Atlanta Braves,  New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers and Oakland A’s. The Tigers also became the first AL team to clinch their division. The second year in a row that they’ve done that.

But really, no one is reading too much into the playoffs. Yet. Now, the baseball-related discussions are about that AL MVP race and something you might have heard of called the Triple Crown.

Coincidentally or not, both of those discussions involve one Miguel Cabrera who also plays for the Tigers.

Triple Crown & MVP

I’ll start with the Triple Crown first, to get it out of the way.

Continue reading →

Silencing the Tigers’ Haters

Posted on by
1

Much has been made of the Tigers’ “inconsistent” play as of late, as well as the fact that they aren’t in first place in a “weak” division.

This is all irrelevant. Or, unwarranted rather.  The Tigers have, if not the best, then one of the best records in the league since the end of June.

The division is another thing entirely. Yes, the Tigers sit two games out of first place Chicago, but on the year, Detroit has a 7-5 record against the Sox. That’s tied for the most wins the Tigers have against any other club this year. The other two teams the Tigers have seven wins against are Minnesota and Kansas City, which Detroit is a combined 14-6 against. Which brings us to this point, of the 40 games left, twenty six of them are against those teams. Six more of those scheduled games are against the Angels, who Detroit has won three of the four meetings with this year.

So add it all up, and the Tigers, if all goes as it has been going, should end up with the division title. This would in turn remove them from the wildcard-playoff-shtick. Continue reading →

The Tigers Starting Pitching Situation

Posted on by
1

Justin Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball.

After that you have some question marks. I don’t think the pitchers who follow Verlander two-through-five are bad, there are just some concerns.

The first concern is Doug Fister. Like I said, it’s not as big of a concern with him as it might be with some other pitchers. At the very worst Doug Fister is going to be a reliable number three option in the rotation. At the very best however, you’re looking at a shutdown number two option that can cause opposing fans to throw their TV remotes through windows in frustration. You know, due to the fact that Detroit would be up two games to nil in a playoff series, after Verlander and Fister each win.

Last year we saw total brilliance. In the second half of the 2011 season, the best pitcher in baseball, at the time, was a member of the Detroit Tigers. And it wasn’t Verlander. Down the stretch, Fister posted a stellar 8-1 mark with a desirable 1.79 earned run average. Combine that with the fact that through the little-over 70 innings that he threw, he struck out 57 batters to a modest four walks. Holy Smoltz. That, if you didn’t major in some form of math at an Ivy League school, equates to an 11.40 strikeout-to-walk ration. I’m going to say it again, holy Smoltz. I should mention the fact that he gave up the fewest home runs per 9 innings among all qualified pitchers with a 0.5 per game clip. Some of that is probably attributed to the fact that he pitched in two of the bigger parks in the league (Safeco Field and Comerica Park), but most of it is due to fact that he can pitch.

This year however, the numbers and results haven’t been as encouraging. Almost every statistical category’s numbers have ballooned. He gave up 11 homeruns all of last year, eight with the Mariners, in 216.1 innings pitched. This season he’s given up the same number he gave up in a Seattle uniform last year. However this year he’s thrown only 67.2 innings. The concern is there, but so is the potential.

Look at his earlier start against Seattle in the Pacific Northwest earlier this year. It was Fister’s first full start of the season after going down with a side injury in his opening week start against the Red Sox. He threw 7.0 innings of four-hit ball, sent three of his former teammates back to the dugouts on third strikes , but was the victim of a botched save attempt by the bullpen and saw his win and two run lead vanish in the ninth as the Mariners scored three runs. I was at that game, and it was a travesty to see him not factor in the decision positively.

But overall, Fister’s so-so numbers are a victim of a couple bad starts and bad run support.

After the Seattle disappointment he took the mound in Oakland and gave up one run and five hits over 6 innings while fanning 8… and was charged with the loss. After that he gave up four runs (three earned) in six innings against Minnesota, charged with the loss. He again put up a solid start in his next outing, but let the wheels fall off at the end as the Indians scored twice in his last inning to spoil the game. Overall, he gave up a mere six runs in his first 29.1 innings but was knocked around for that same number against a potent Boston offense during the next outing. The point here is that the ERA is where it’s at because of three bad starts against Texas, Boston and the Twins. A rough go around is explainable against the first two clubs, but not the third. Then again, everybody has a bad day right?

Moving on after that long analysis.

At number three in the rotation is Max Scherzer. He really hasn’t pitched all that bad despite spotting a 4.84 ERA. A lot of that is probably attributed to the beating he took in the opening series against Boston. He was the victim of 7 earned runs in a mere 2.2 innings pitched. And, as stated, it seems his ERA is gradually, with the exception of one start, coming down from that.

Rick Porcello is another kettle of fish entirely. He’s probably the one pitcher that I’m more than a little worried about. Let me come off that ledge a bit. I’m not saying he needs to pack his bags for Toledo, he just needs to throw with some consistency. His only terrible-ish starts were against LA of Anaheim, Seattle and an ugly one inning affair against the Rangers where they crossed the plate 9 times (8 of those runs earned) in the one inning. Again, LA and Texas are explainable, but he had a bad game against the Mariners.

Which for some odd reason happens a lot — the Tigers struggle against Seattle. That’s awesome, because I live in the greater Seattle area, more or less.

Again, moving on.

We’ve seen Drew Smyly be outstanding holding down the fort as the fifth starter at times. We have also seen a slightly more sporadic Smyly throw the ball. We’ve seen good things from Casey Crosby as well as flashes of brilliance from Jacob Turner. We’ve also seen Adam Wilk and the occasional Duane Below. The underlying theme here is that we could probably use another starting pitcher.

Here’s a sample size of the market for starters as it is-

  • Cole Hamels, Phillies
  • Zack Greinke, Shawn Marcum, Brewers
  • Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Cubs
  • Jason Vargas, Kevin Millwood, Mariners
  • Bartolo Colon, Athletics
  • Wandy Rodriguez, Astros

Take the list in, go ahead, I’ll wait. Are you done thinking of trade scenarios? Good. Ok, these guys obviously aren’t the only pitchers that will be available. Jeremy Guthrie and Francisco Liriano could be options as well, but these are the main guys, probably. That is unless some contender who wouldn’t normally be in it, but is thanks to this new wild card mumbo jumbo, goes 0-10 in the next two weeks and falls miserably out of it. Then they might sell.

Moving on, Guthrie and Liriano are probably too wild to warrant either serious interest or investment. The selling-the-farm tactic is probably a no-go for Dave Dombrowski and friends as they develop their system. So that’s two more “NOs” on missers Hamles and Greinke. Garza and Marcum would be worth a look, but might cost a top pitcher like a Smyly or Crosby. So again. No. Wandy Rodriguez is probably a little expensive for the Tigers’ taste, so for the umpteenth time… No.

That leaves Dempster, Vargas, Millwood and Colon.

I’d say no to Colon mainly because the A’s will need him if they’re still in it come whenever. If I were Dombrowski, I’d probably only invest a PTBNL or an A-ball pitcher two on Millwood, or frankly Colon for that matter. That whittles it down to Vargas and Dempster. You’ve seen the Seattle-to-Detroit pitcher pipeline work out brilliantly. See my above paragraphs on one Doug Fister, and horribly, see Jarrod Washburn.

I would think that each could be had for a price, and I would think that that price wouldn’t be too obnoxious. I’d say a B-level prospect or two would probably get it done either way. Let’s also not forget that if we get Dempster, he’s bringing a 33-scoreless-innings-pitched streak to Comerica. Can I get a “Winning”?

As I write this, Doug Fister now has won his third start in a row. So maybe they don’t need to give up the farm for a Cole Hamels-like pitcher. But regardless, pitching help is needed, and in that case Dempster’s the guy.

The Problem With Adam Dunn

Posted on by
Reply

Adam Dunn is having a fine bounce-back year. The Chicago White Sox, however, aren’t. Yes, they are technically in second place in the division, but there isn’t a lot of staying power to be had on the South Side. Which brings us to our next point. Do they trade off some pieces to continue their “rebuilding”? (cough cute attempt at “reloading” cough)

Dunn already has 14 bombs after tallying a mere 11 last campaign. This all fine and dandy, but what real value does Dunn have?

He can hit, we know that. We also know he isn’t the best defender by any stretch. Which is why he’s listed as the starting DH for the Sox.

Because of the defensive, ah… inconsistency, Dunn is going to scare off some NL teams looking for a first baseman. So for all intents and purposes let’s cross off all NL teams from Dunn’s “Trade Possibility List”.

The number of teams shrink again when you look at the AL. In the East, Toronto doesn’t need him, though they might take a flier if Adam Lind struggles. Tampa probably doesn’t want to shell out the cash to get him (Dunn). New York and Boston are set. Baltimore though is the one possibility in the division, and maybe the league. The Orioles are currently employing Wilson Betemit and Nick Johnson at DH. Not exactly a World Series winner’s platoon there, but funnier things have happened. The point is that the Orioles make sense for Dunn when not many teams do.

Other teams that don’t make a lick of sense (not necessarily in this order, well maybe… You know what, forget I even said the order thing…)

Detroit:  Though if Delmon Young continues to struggle… Nah.

Kansas City:  No room whatsoever. Unless it’s a straight-up swap for Billy Butler.

Minnesota:  Sellers-R-US.

Texas:  Wouldn’t put it past them to get another bat. But probably not.

Oakland:  Billy Beane isn’t moving his prospects for Dunn. No way.

Los Angeles Angels of Wherever:  Nope.

And last, but probably least, of teams that make no sense, Seattle:  Least only because I don’t think Dunn wants to join the ranks of Richie Sexson, Milton Bradley and Brad Wilkerson. (Which, if you haven’t guessed, is the line of tombstones for their careers. Safeco Field is death row for hitters.)

Cleveland makes some sense on the list of potential suitors, but there isn’t a chance in a blue moon that Kenny Williams moves him in division. Unless the Indians are boneheads again and give up almost every good prospect they have to get a decent player. (cough Ubaldo Jimenez cough)

Sorry about my constant cough throughout this piece. It seems to come up when talking about mediocre teams (cough Cleveland cough White Sox cough)

Wrap-up point here, Dunn’s bounce-back season is nice, but Chicago can’t really capitalize on it and move him due to the lack of buyers.

A Few Quick Thoughts on the All-Star Ballot

Posted on by
Reply

On my recent yearly pilgrimage to Safeco Field to see the Tigers play they were handing out All-Star Game Ballots. It goes something like this: You pick the roster right, you submit it and (key word obviously being “and”), you win something if you get it right. Seems to have escaped me. Octavio Dotel’s closing mishap must have done that to me………………………………. Moving on, anyways here are my thoughts on it.

Positional Mix and Mash-

Jesus Montero is officially listed at DH, which actually might be more difficult to make it into the game than behind the plate.

Andy Dirks and Delmon Young have flip flopped positions since the ballot came out. Young is the current DH and Dirks has taken his spot in left for Detroit.

Michael Young is listed at DH, but really can play everywhere around the infield for Texas.

Joe Mauer is actually listed at catcher despite attempts to keep him out of injuries’ way.

 

Third Base Just Got a Whole Lot More Crowded-

Miguel Cabrera joins an AL group that includes mainstays Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez and Kevin Youkilis.

In the NL, Hanley Ramirez joins a positional battle with the likes of Ryan Zimmerman, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen and Pablo Sandoval. Not to mention last year’s All-Star Placido Polanco.

 

Other Things of Note-

Wilson Betemit is listed as the Oriole’s DH. A decent defender, seems like he’d be better defensively than Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis at first and third. Just a thought.

Ben Revere, one of the Twins outfielders listed, is currently in AAA.

Josh Donaldson, the A’s third base representative, was in AAA for a couple weeks before being called up.

Brandon Inge should at least be put in the running if he keeps going bananas.

Both Alex Gonzalez and Mat Gamel are out for the season and are presumably out of the running.

Franklin Gutierrez will have a tough time of it seeing as he hasn’t played yet. His teammate Ichiro could also have a tough time making it back to the Mid-Summer Classic.

Seriously Assessing The Seattle Mariners Chances

Posted on by
Reply

HAHAHAHAHAHA (wipes tear from corner of left eye)

As you can tell I have half a mind to just cut it off here and say they don’t have a chance. But for the sake of them making the playoffs I’ll try.

To be clear, the only reason I’d want them to make it into the post-season is so that in the off chance that they win the wild card matchup (The Rangers are taking the division, if not them then Anaheim is. No chance for Seattle in the division.) they would play my Detroit Tigers in the next matchup. Hence, because I live in the Pacific Northwest, I’d be able to go to the games. But enough of my selfish wants, back to the Mariners.

Do they have a chance? Yes. But then again the Pirates have had a “chance” for the last decade and change.

Seattle has it tough division-wise. They aren’t like the Blue Jays, who in another division could be successful. One, the Mariners aren’t in a position (pun intended) geographically to be in another division, and two, they wouldn’t be any better off in any other division. As stated the M’s will struggle with the Rangers and Angels, and even the A’s if Brandon Inge keeps driving in runs.

But, if the Mariners want to contend they need to make changes, because the current roster might not cut it.

Starting with the infield, Dustin Ackley is a good second baseman as it is and will only get better. So that spot seems to be nailed down for the next decade if everything plays out the right way for Seattle. Brendan Ryan is also a good option at shortstop, maybe better defensively than offensively, but he has his moments. At the corners there are concerns. Kyle Seager has been on a relative tear lately, but is rather on the green side of things. He’ll hit a wall at some point, and the problem becomes “what do you do with him?” After Seager at third the M’s have Alex Liddi, Chone Figgins and possibly Munenori Kawasaki. Liddi has shown flashes, but like Seager will hit a wall. The Figgy Pudding seems to have spoiled and Kawasaki is more valuable because of his ability to play multiple positions as a utility guy. Point here being that when Seager hits a wall, the M’s need a viable replacement or compliment.  First base is a curious one. Justin Smoak has struggled this year and needs to get it going. After him on the depth chart is Mike Carp and Liddi. Carp will get a lot of his starts in the outfield, and Liddi isn’t an amazing first baseman. There is also the off chance of Jesus Montero getting the occasional start there. The M’s should be fine if Smoak can get his act together. If he can’t they may need to find another first baseman to put in a timeshare with him, or take the job away all together.

The outfield is a mess. And for a few different reasons. Ichiro is in right field. We know that. What we don’t know is the other two spots. Carp is currently in left. Michael Saunders is holding down the fort in center, while Franklin Gutierrez is on the DL. Once Guti (as the kids call him) comes back the outfield could be very mix-and-match-y. Saunders gives the team some power and will steal a base, but he hasn’t hit well for average and that could be somewhat of a concern. Carp can do a little bit of everything with the bat and has shown he is a productive everyday player. You have those three plus Casper Wells and a host of outfielders in Tacoma all fighting for two spots.

Catcher is really the one spot where Seattle can say it measures up to most other Major League teams. Jesus Montero is going to be good. John Jaso is another quality option as is Miguel Olivo. All in all a solid group.

While the offense is a general mess, the Mariners pitching staff is pretty good. Felix Hernandez is second only to Justin Verlander in terms of pitchers. Jason Vargas might very well be the most underrated pitcher in the game. Over the past couple years he has received some of the worst run support in the league and has escaped with 19 wins in the past two years to 25 losses. We saw what a former Mariner pitcher can do with run support last year as Doug Fister went bonkers on the mound down the stretch for Detroit. Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan are still unproven, while Kevin Millwood has been iffy at home and great on the road. Which is odd seeing as Safeco Field is a premier pitchers park and the road, well is the road.

The bullpen is a curious bunch. Brandon League might be on the overrated side of things but still gets the job done. Tom Wilhelmsen is a nice 7th inning option as is Steve Delabar, but the M’s are using them as setup men when they could use a real back-up closer for League. A back-up closer like a Rafael Soriano or Jouquin Benoit would make this bullpen loads better.  As far as swing-men types go the M’s have a couple. Charlie Furbush is a decent option, as is Hisashi Iwakuma, but Seattle could use one solid long relief arm to pair with one of the two for the bullpen to work.

All in all there are some holes. Lots offensively, fewer from a pitching perspective, but the question now becomes:  “Will the Mariners trade some of their youth to get better veterans to make a playoff push?”

(Sighs, once again starts laughing hysterically: “Mariners… and…the playoffs?”)

Kurt Suzuki’s Value

Posted on by
4

Kurt Suzuki is only 28. An age that most would think would be part of a player’s prime. So, despite an underwhelming offensive season last year, it’s safe to assume that Kurt Suzuki is in his prime.

There are a few things that are wrong with this. Perhaps not wrong, but they certainly work against Suzuki staying in Oakland.

One: He is a solid offensive option at a position that is mainly derived of offensive threats (catcher).

Two: As stated, he is in somewhat of his prime, meaning he still has prime years of his career. (Duh.)

Three: He plays for a rebuilding Oakland team.

Let’s start with one. Despite the aforementioned underwhelming seasons, Suzuki is still a very good option at catcher. In his breakout year in 2008 he posted a WAR of 3.3., which was the same WAR posted by Mark Teixeira and was a higher WAR than those of Miguel Cabrera (3.1) and Robinson Cano (1.2). Position-wise, his WAR blew those of Jason Varitek (0.2) and AJ Pierzynski (0.6) out of the water. (All according to baseballreference.com, mind you.)

Two, he’s in his prime. If I had a nickel for every time I said that in this piece, well let’s just say I’d be in the prestigious 15 cent club.

And now we get to the fact that he plays for…Oakland (buh, buh…. buh.) So now that you’ve taken in that Kurt Suzuki is not only in his prime (20 cents!) and is an offensive threat at an offensively depleted position, take into account that he plays for Oakland. The A’s are in the midst of another Billy Beane rebuilding phase and are currently siphoning out their current talent for younger, future talent. (Gio Gonzalez, Andrew Bailey and Trevor Cahil were all quietly dealt for an intriguing hull of prospects.)

In one of those deals, Beane acquired former Nationals top-five prospect Derek Norris: a catcher who can do a lot of things. He hits for power and draws a lot of walks (now it’s starting to make sense as to why Beane acquired him) and is a good defensive catcher. Basically everything but hitting for average.

Norris is presently at AAA and should be with the A’s in the next season or two. Meaning Suzuki’s time in the Bay Area could be short.

Because of his offensive ability at a position where contenders might look to upgrade (Boston, Tampa Bay) or if an injury strikes, Kurt Suzuki might very well be a big draw on the trade market.